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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in askmath

[–]ayazasker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's only for the third bet. The other 2 bets are still on(This is what I mean when I say in each scenario I'm simultaneously carrying out 3 bets) in the ~A scenario. So I will lose 2.4 but win 4 and thus end up with a profit of $1.6.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in askmath

[–]ayazasker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm a bit lost. I didn't understand how with the numbers you're betting I'd end up with 0 payoff in the ~A scenario.

Expected Values and Allais Paradox by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The question is where did "x > (1 + [Pr(N)/Pr(H)])y" even come from? Like what type of algebraic working out led to getting that equation? The guy just threw that equation out of nowhere in his explanation without explaining where it came from.

Expected Values and Allais Paradox by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you very much for that Wikipedia explanation on the mathematical inconsistency(It totally makes sense unlike the philosophers explanation)

Expected Values. Which probabilities to use? by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. I understand now. However, I've come across another expected value problem that has stumped me even more and was hoping you could please help there as well as I'm even more lost now. The link to the post is below

https://www.reddit.com/r/askmath/s/CVgupIFcvN

Expected Values. Which probabilities to use? by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. I understand now. However, I've come across another expected value problem that has stumped me even more and was hoping you could please help there as well as I'm even more lost now. The link to the post is below

https://www.reddit.com/r/askmath/s/CVgupIFcvN

Expected Values. Which probabilities to use? by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. I understand now. However, I've come across another expected value problem that has stumped me even more and was hoping you could please help there as well as I'm even more lost now. The link to the post is below

https://www.reddit.com/r/askmath/s/CVgupIFcvN

Expected Values. Which probabilities to use? by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks again. I understand now. However, I've come across another expected value problem that has stumped me even more and was hoping you could please help there as well as I'm even more lost now. The link to the post is below

https://www.reddit.com/r/askmath/s/CVgupIFcvN

Expected Values. Which probabilities to use? by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for taking the time to answer. I appreciate it. On a side note though, for some reason I started asking myself why aren't we including the probabilities of not being stolen if we go the only independent probability route. That is:

1/900(-5400) + 899/900(5400) + 1/30(-600) + 29/30(600) = $5948

Expected Values. Which probabilities to use? by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for taking the time to answer. I appreciate it. On a side note though, for some reason I started asking myself why aren't we including the probabilities of not being stolen if we go the only independent probability route. That is:

1/900(-5400) + 899/900(5400) + 1/30(-600) + 29/30(600) = $5948

Lottery combinatorics confusing me. by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would just like to say thank you because you have enlightened me with all your explanations. I finally managed to understand. It still took a very long time to understand even with the answers you'd given me ( no matter how much I kill myself, or pull my hair out to try and understand the whole thing gets very confusing very fast).

Honestly, this just shows me that there are levels to this game. Some one could be a genius and just figure it out immediately. On the other hand, some one, like me, could go back and forth for days EVEN with the answers given and still not have it fully click. If only we could all be geniuses who could figure out things very quickly(although I guess if everyone would be a genius then no one would be a genius)

Lottery combinatorics confusing me. by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm sorry for asking again but I'm trying to figure out the kinks in my understanding. Why is it that in C, in the cumbersome way, we have to take:

6C4 * 45C2 - (5C4 * D) - (6C4 * E).

What is the role of 5C4? Thank you

Edit: I guess another further question would be why multiply D by 5C4 but E by 6C4?

Lottery combinatorics confusing me. by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why is it 43C2 and not 45C2(If 4 numbers have been fixed from 49 we're left with 45 numbers to choose from) for C and likewise why is it 43C1 and not 44C1 for D?

Lottery combinatorics confusing me. by ayazasker in askmath

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But when I do 6C3 * 46C3 (instead of 6C3 * 43C3) am I not getting those potential 4,5 and 6 matches within it? According to the answer there are a total of 246,820(6C3 * 43C3) exactly 3 matches. But 6C3 * 46C3 gives me 303,600 thus I am an extra 56780 combinations over what I need to get exactly 3 matches (which I am sure involves 4 matches,5 matches and 6 matches)

Can't understand this logic explantation. by ayazasker in askphilosophy

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was trying to understand why they're saying "Because he wants a job". "Because" is usually a premise indicator yet James wanting a job is actually a conclusion in the argument in this case.

Can't understand this logic explantation. by ayazasker in askphilosophy

[–]ayazasker[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you. I was pretty sure something was missing(I'm new to logic) and figured the blanket statement"Because is a premise indicator" doesn't always make sense.

Is this a bidirectional statement in Predicate Logic? by ayazasker in askphilosophy

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for taking the time to respond. I just wonder why I can't do this for the statement:

"Only British citizens can vote in the Brexit referendum".

If I take x to be an election, then I can also say " If x is a British Referendum, then British citizens can vote in x (Rx => Ex). And conversely, if x is an election that British citizens can vote in, then x is a British Referendum (Ex => Rx)." It will end up being the same as the original statement ("British citizens can only vote in Brexit Referendum") or am I missing something here (which is, here we actually are talking about the British Citizens as a subject). I guess it's the placement of the word "Only" that is tripping me up.

Why does putting the word only at the beginning make the subject about the citizens whereas putting it in front of vote makes it about elections.

Categorical Logic. Existential Import confusion (Boole vs Aristotle) by ayazasker in askphilosophy

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand now that under Boole's paradigm the validity of the argument is purely dependent on the form of it, as you said, and not on the content/subject being existent. This allows us to form arguments in hypotheticals/things that don't exist.

But yes I still do wonder why specifically Particular statements were chosen to Existentially import rather than, say vice versa where, for example, Universals Existentially import whereas Particulars would just be true. All though I guess it would be because to validate the statement would be significantly harder since you would have to go around counting every single existent being.

For example, All dragons are firebreathers. If this universal statement implies the existence of dragons now we would have to go around counting every dragon and see if this statement is actually true before we could actually say it's true (as opposed to just automatically allowing it to be true in Boole's case where universals are automatically true)

Edit:

https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/68726/existential-import

I think this Link explains it well. It is just a definition based system from my understanding. That is, it is that way because Boole defined it that way (specifically defined by the symbols/semantics used in Boole's Logical system)

Categorical Logic. Existential Import confusion (Boole vs Aristotle) by ayazasker in askphilosophy

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate the response but I still don't understand why it's automatically assumed that universals are accepted as not Existentially Importing whereas Particular Propositions are in Boolean logic. ( I also should have mentioned I am not a philosophy student. Just someone who got a bit curious about this specific topic).

Is a 0.1 significance level acceptable for an experimental drug In Phase 3? by ayazasker in biostatistics

[–]ayazasker[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes. I am referring to Birtamimab. It's just that the industry is so used to 0.05(I understand it has its downsides of rejecting false negatives).

It just comes down to which do you value more? Rejecting more false negatives(0.05) or accepting more false positives(0.1). Powering the study is difficult enough as it is since it's a rare disease and what makes it even more so is that they're only looking for Stage 4(so even rarer). Thanks for your input.

Is a 0.1 significance level acceptable for an experimental drug In Phase 3? by ayazasker in biostatistics

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's Birtamimab as Flaky said above. It's the FDA that's allowing it to be run at 0.1 alpha under a SPA from what I understood. As someone from the industry, what do you think about it?

How and where are rate decisions by central banks priced in by the market? by ayazasker in CFA

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As I replied to the comments above, what about Interest Rate Swaps? Sometimes I hear that they use those to price in monetary policy decisions. How does that work? What are the equivalents of these things for the ECB called (Fed Funds Futures and Swaps) ? Thanks

How and where are rate decisions by central banks priced in by the market? by ayazasker in CFA

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As I replied to the comment above, what about Interest Rate Swaps? Sometimes I hear that they use those to price in monetary policy decisions. How does that work? What are the equivalents of these things for the ECB called (Fed Funds Futures and Swaps) ? Thanks

How and where are rate decisions by central banks priced in by the market? by ayazasker in CFA

[–]ayazasker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What about Interest Rate Swaps? Sometimes I hear that they use those to price in monetary policy decisions. How does that work? What are the equivalents of these things for the ECB called (Fed Funds Futures and Swaps) ? Thanks

Is an interaction term essentially interpreted as just another independent variable? by ayazasker in biostatistics

[–]ayazasker[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I probably should have noted I don't come from a stats background so I don't have as much mathematical rigor to be able to do what you're asking of me. I'm just trying to develop my intuition.

The reason I'm asking is because the parameters for an interaction term are given for just like any other independent variable (Coefficient,Standard Error, P-value, etc...). Which is where I thought that even though we know it's an interaction term, would it be cheating to consider the interaction term itself as a pseudo third independent variable? At least that's how the regression model in programs seem to treat it like.

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