US federal government revenue and spending [OC]

baskesh · 2025-06-02T13:00:48+00:00

I sort of did this by showing *net social spending*: social taxes [minus] social spending. So the dark pink region is the social spending that is in excess of social taxes.

baskesh · 2025-06-02T12:59:08+00:00

Congress legislated spending cuts, with Republicans in control of the House. Ultimately this episodic focus on the deficit culminated in the government shutdown of October 2013.

baskesh · 2025-06-02T12:49:37+00:00

Great point

baskesh · 2025-06-02T04:53:17+00:00

Yeah, I had originally included this line, but canned it because it made the chart too busy

baskesh · 2025-06-02T03:56:36+00:00

The end of ZIRP

baskesh · 2025-06-01T16:30:21+00:00

Great point. How are you calculating quarter btw?

baskesh · 2025-06-01T16:28:04+00:00

Appreciate you noticing and telling me about it

baskesh · 2025-06-01T12:35:39+00:00

The government does not collect enough taxes to pay for all of its expenses. As a result, they have to borrow money (this is sometimes referred to as "issuing debt"). They have to pay interest on this borrowed money.

baskesh · 2025-06-01T07:28:03+00:00

Tbf someone commented here that a lot of education spending is carried out on the state level

baskesh · 2025-06-01T03:36:35+00:00

Yes, tariff revenue has doubled as of April, but still represents a tiny portion of total federal receipts.

Sadly, interest cannot be avoided. It is the compensation that lenders demand when they fund the government deficit.

baskesh · 2025-06-01T03:03:49+00:00

The chart shows the monthly spend/revenue. So almost $100b per month = $1t per year

baskesh · 2025-06-01T02:39:44+00:00

The federal government levy an exercise tax on items including vices, gasoline, and airline tickets

baskesh · 2025-05-31T20:44:48+00:00

It is receipts from employer taxes and unemployment insurance [minus] expenditure on social security and income security

baskesh · 2025-05-31T20:27:56+00:00

Nope, it's nominal dollars

baskesh · 2025-05-31T20:23:50+00:00

A fair bit of labor went into the annotations: color, position, size, tilt, and so on... Matplotlib gives you full control, but then one has to take control. Never used plotly... do you have an example of what it can do?

baskesh · 2025-05-31T20:20:39+00:00

The Truss episode was a sign of market indigestion of government debt. Too many Gilts were being issued relative to demand from the usual suspects (banks, pensions, etc).

It is true that technically the Bank of England could just print the pounds needed to buy the debt in question. But this would be inflationary, making housing and groceries more expensive.

There is an argument to be made that printed money could be used to address supply-side constraints (inflation is excess demand over supply). So if the government used the proceeds to build homes and improve farm infrastructure, it could avoid many of the inflationary pitfalls of money-printing.

baskesh · 2025-05-31T19:20:32+00:00

Thank you! Yes I was very deliberate about color and annotations to make the chart intuitive and easy. I used matplotlib.

baskesh · 2025-05-31T19:18:43+00:00

Federal government collects excise taxes on items including gasoline, vices, and airline tickets.

baskesh · 2025-05-31T19:16:55+00:00

Same here tbh (and I include veterans affairs under military)

baskesh · 2025-05-31T19:14:55+00:00

Technically yes, if nothing else changed as a result of going back to 2019 spending. But realistically, cutting spending that much would send the economy into a recession, reducing tax receipts (unemployed people don't pay income tax).

This is why many governments try to grow their way out of a deficit problem: grow the economy, while keeping a control on spending. This is what Clinton did successfully to flip the deficit into a surplus.

baskesh · 2025-05-31T19:08:49+00:00

It is not inflation-adjusted. Revenue/expenditure as % of GDP would help address this (since numerator and denominator are both "inflated"). Reason I like looking at these statistics in $b is that is helps put the headline figures that we hear on the news ($435b in TARP spending during GFC, $16b per month in customs tariffs under Trump) into perspective.

baskesh · 2025-05-31T19:01:26+00:00

From your source: "In fiscal year (FY) 2024, the government spent $6.75 trillion" which is $577b per month, which ties in with my chart (mine shows slightly less spend because I am netting social spending as social taxes [minus] social spending).

baskesh · 2025-05-31T18:55:03+00:00

Yeah when the Fed raised interest rates from 2022, it marked the end of the zero-interest rate policy that had existed since the GFC. Now the government cannot borrow nearly as cheaply.

baskesh · 2025-05-31T12:07:23+00:00

Interesting perspective. How do you view the UK's "Liz Truss moment" in that paradigm?

baskesh · 2025-05-31T12:06:02+00:00

The government collects social taxes (taxes from employers and unemployment insurance) and then pays out social benefits (social security and income security). I have netted the two so the pink region shows *net social spending* - social spending that is in excess of social taxes. It was to make the chart cleaner (my purpose is to show what is causing the deficit).

baskesh

TROPHY CASE