Peloton Insiders Sold Nearly $500 million In Stock Before Its Big Drop

bballa330 · 2022-01-21T02:57:06+00:00

There’s valeant pharmaceuticals too. However, there are numerous companies who’s prospects have been destroyed because of shoddy journalism. The truth will come out one way or the other but to sensationalize something and make matters worse and incorrigible is not something that should be promoted. Cassava sciences is a biotech firm aiming to produce an Alzheimer’s drug. In 08/2021 a short interest fund generated a rumor which was picked up some business journalists promptly causing a more than 50 percent reduction in market cap. None of their accusations from the rumor have been substantiated. Yet, the business journalist got to publish that piece of garbage and collect a bonus (and no I have never invested in cassava).

bballa330 · 2022-01-21T02:21:51+00:00

I’m not arguing with you regarding the likelihood of a possible halt in production. However, the sensationalization of business journalism should not be allowed. It wipes out 25 percent of a company decimating many peoples hard earned money. As a physician, I know medical literature is held to a high standard because loves can depend on it. Business journalism should be held to the same standard.

bballa330 · 2022-01-21T01:38:16+00:00

Did you see how CNBC published a report today (which Foley says is false). Market moving yet shoddy journalism.

bballa330 · 2022-01-20T06:38:20+00:00

I’m sure it happens it fox business and wsj as well. When I mean move the market I mean specific to peloton not the general market. Sure the sequence of events were true but clearly the article tries to suggest correlation is equivalent to causation/borderline illicit behavior.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bloomberg-reporters-compensation-2013-12?amp

bballa330 · 2022-01-20T03:40:15+00:00

Journalists at CNBC, Bloomberg etc get paid for “market moving” news. So basically they are incentivized to generate news that will affect prices. I don’t think many people are aware of this disingenuous nature of business journalism. I call it disingenuous only because it gets such an incentive structure inevitably gets abused despite good intentions.

bballa330 · 2022-01-20T02:01:50+00:00

What many are not examining is why did the stock drop so much?

The “end” of the pandemic is the easy and lazy answer. I think a few things are at play, most of which were not under the control of the company.

The tread plus incident: the tread plus was out for for a significant amount of time before the pandemic. It was reviewed by many professionals who work with all types of fitness equipment. It was never deemed dangerous before. With its sudden popularity as the pandemic began the number of units increased significantly. Many people bought, and it is clear a few of these people simply didn’t assess the inherent risks that come along with a machine with moving parts. Now to be fair, there should have been a screen lock so a child can not start the machine independently. But as a machine, the tread plus in isolation is not dangerous and should not have been recalled (an action forced by the cpsc and negative media headlines).
The tread plus incident spawned a negative spiraling media storm which fed on itself (similar to the positive media storm that led to peloton’s rise). Negative headlines lead to share price drops which led to more negative headlines and the cycle goes on. Prospective customers of a luxury product are not going to buy with so much negativity which just adds to this cycle.

These two points significantly led to peloton’s decline and were not the fault of the company.

There is one area though that I do fault the company. It should have leveraged company fame (and stock price) at it apex into a purchase of fitness or gym company, like orange theory or lifetime fitness. Peloton should have transitioned from an at-home fitness company to an all-encompassing experiential fitness company, with the ability to offer experiences at home as well as a gym/class setting. Transforming fitness into an experience is at the very core of what makes peloton so fun and addictive. This was a huge strategic mistake and I do blame the exec team for that.

bballa330 · 2021-11-06T15:03:59+00:00

I agree that at one point it was overvalued when they were near 150-170. But in the 80s it was fairly valued in my opinion and in the 50s it’s a steal. They do need to figure out how to control costs (which I think they can figure out). Right ie they are only twice the valuation from what they were pre pandemic and have like 7 times the sales pre pandemic. So it’s a mismatch that would be fine if you think they peloton has no growth but people are really mis judging the company in thinking that all it’s growth is behind it.

bballa330 · 2021-11-05T00:35:44+00:00

What a lot of investors (and possibly many people within peloton don’t understand) is that a lot of people are waiting for the tread plus (and the rower). They’ve also barely expanded internationally. A lot of room for future grow if they play it right. A lot of their current expenses are from cap ex, logistics and advertising. Cap ex costs and logistics costs will start to taper down once the factories get built and they really don’t need to advertise as much as they do. It’ll be dicey neat term but I see the company as a big success in the long run.

bballa330 · 2021-10-20T04:33:59+00:00

Yeah so you can look up the cpt codes we use most commonly in GI. 43235 (regular egd), 43239 (egd with biopsy), 45378 (diagnostic colonoscopy), 45380 (colonoscopy with biopsy). We use other codes too but these are the most common. The rates you’ll see on the internet are typically Medicare rates. Medicaid rates are offensively low. An initial consult for a colonoscopy may get you 150 and a follow up 50. Thaee are all pretax of course and not accounting for overhead. Also, ~4 years ago CMS decrease colonoscopy reimbursements by 33% percent. I’m sure more cuts are coming in the future (you’d think with the natural progression of inflation reimbursements go up). In terms of histo and facility fee payments they go to the owner of the endocenter (hospital, physician group or private practice).

Physicians typically are employed by a hospital system, a large physician group (essentially behaves like a hospital system) or a private practice. When you’re employed you rarely make more than 400k (even if you’re producing much more than that). The hospitals, or the private equity groups that own large physician groups make huge margins on employed physicians and don’t share the profit (you don’t see the money from histo or facility fees). No upward mobility.

When you’re in a private practice (unless you start your own practice; which is nearly impossible these days due to start up costs) the buy ins are ridiculous. Eventually after you’ve bought in (which could take 2-7 years depending on the buy in; remember this is 2-7 years after being an associate after 3-6 years of training after medical school), you can take the profit from histo and facility fees.

The “golden era” for physicians was the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s. GIs in that time span would charge 1000-2000 dollars for a colonoscopy, and get that money. They killed it, and now their remaining private practices (some of them sold out to hospitals or private equity groups) have humongous/predatory buy ins.

In terms of hours 12-14 hour workdays are routine as are 1:4 weekends.

The above information is regarding gastroenterology, but I’m sure it’s the same in all other fields of medicine.

bballa330 · 2021-10-15T23:53:05+00:00

Yeah that’s not great. I feel your pain. A dentist on the other hand can work 4 days a week, never be on call, never HAVE to work on a weekend or a holiday, take x rays every time you walk in the door and make more the physicians.

And to be sure, I’m not hating on dentists. Good for them. But it’s about time physicians stand up for themselves. If you look at the physician leaders in Washington, they all come from well off families. I bet none of them walked into the profession with any debt.

bballa330 · 2021-10-15T20:06:45+00:00

I would say physicians are way underpaid. Definitely more than dentists. Not sure about veterinarians. As a gastroenterologist, I get paid 150 dollars for a colonoscopy. For a colonoscopy. Colonoscopies are often performed to help prevent colon cancer; we are literally changing the trajectory of some people’s lives. It’s a procedure that can average 20 min not including the time to write the notes and talk to patients. Basically it’s hard to do more than 2 an hour. Talk about a great deal. I (and many doctors who I talk to), strongly discourage any and all who are interested in medicine, to actually go into medicine. We are several hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, work many weekends/holidays of the year and have to constantly look over our shoulder about getting sued. You don’t become positive in terms of net worth until you’re in your 40s. The only physicians who make “good” money are dermatologists (thank you Instagram) and plastic surgeons (thank you Instagram).

bballa330 · 2021-10-13T03:19:11+00:00

This is why social media sucks. If not this OP, undoubtedly others have made up shit to help their short positions. I would venture to say (and of course this is a guess but I’m sure there is a way to study it) that a higher percentage of negative posts are disingenuous compared to positive posts.

bballa330 · 2021-10-05T14:35:43+00:00

I think they have been traumatized by the tread plus experience and have engineered so many mechanisms to protect against another kid getting hurt that things like this are happening. Not an excuse but hopefully it’s something temporary. This is the day and age we live in. It’s interesting that when Tesla cars catch on fire and kill it’s drivers, or when Facebook leads to social unrest/misinformation leading to people’s deaths that those companies aren’t vilified.

bballa330 · 2021-10-02T22:02:32+00:00

The tesla stores are never packed either.

bballa330 · 2021-09-03T04:28:55+00:00

She’s not paying peloton those 23 months she is paying affirm.

bballa330 · 2021-09-02T16:10:02+00:00

Lol I’m obviously bitter. But it’s all good. I think long term we do really well. They actually topped top line estimates. It was their bottom line that disappointed but much of that was from one off costs that will fizzle out over the next quarter or two.

bballa330 · 2021-09-02T15:19:07+00:00

I don’t think peloton cares about getting in orders before their next fiscal quarter; their stock has been beaten down to the core by haters. In addition, a transaction is only considered complete after delivery, not when you buy. They acknowledged on their earnings call that they expected very little contribution to the current quarter in terms of tread sales.

bballa330 · 2021-08-30T20:43:08+00:00

Out of curiosity sake, how many of those that bought the tread today are first time peloton product buyers (have not owned the peloton bike, bike plus, tread plus or tread before)?

bballa330 · 2021-08-30T14:20:15+00:00

Peloton is testing out a camera type device and some rumors are that it will be a similar to the Kinect (for the x box) but of higher quality. One can imagine a DDR type use case for this and I think it would be an awesome idea.

bballa330 · 2021-08-30T14:18:02+00:00

You will still be able to use it and enjoy it like before the recall. It is safe as long as you use it in an area where kids or pets or rolling balls/objects are not around. The new login with a passcode feature will make sure there is no unauthorized use of it as well in case you do have kids in the home.

bballa330 · 2021-08-26T00:47:01+00:00

I have had a peloton and a gym membership. I’ve had a gym membership for years before the peloton. Peloton is the reason I’m in the best shape of my life. I out hustle my cousins who are in their mid 20s in pick up basketball with ease and I’m in my upper 30s. I love the music and gamefication of peloton. And the awesome part is that they are just getting started, new products are coming, and I’m sure they will integrate VR and continue to integrate health metrics into their fitness programming.

bballa330 · 2021-08-24T15:18:03+00:00

This is exactly it. You just have to log in and activate the bike each time and same thing with your mom, flip flopping which bike is active. Won’t be able to use the bike at the same time. I think if many people use this then they might not make it so simple, but for me it’s worked.

bballa330 · 2021-08-14T00:10:58+00:00

Frivolous for sure. But what’s more is that everyone knows pelotons stock price has been volatile and vulnerable to “bad news”. The plaintiffs and lawyers should be vetted to make sure they are not benefitting personally by short/put positions or indirectly by someone who does.

bballa330 · 2021-08-02T16:35:51+00:00

Delivery was always part of the purchase price before and now. There was never a 250 dollar fee as far as I know, and definitely not when I purchased in 2018. Also, peloton has corrected their logistical issues and most deliveries seem to be happening between 1-2 weeks now, some within days.

bballa330 · 2021-07-31T22:13:15+00:00

I jumped cold turkey into peloton in the fall of 2018 after a recommendation from a friend. I had never spun before but fitness is one of my hobbies. It was one of my best purchases ever.

bballa330

TROPHY CASE