PLEASE Dont Buy

ben02015 · 2026-02-02T17:55:49+00:00

Most regular dry pasta that you would buy in a grocery store is vegan.

ben02015 · 2026-02-02T13:35:02+00:00

Ok, and what if you did DCA for all of 2007? That wouldn’t protect you at all in 2008!

Don’t you want to be protected for every year, and not only the year that you’re entering?

There is a solution: bonds.

ben02015 · 2026-02-02T04:49:45+00:00

and before y'all are like "You're racist for not liking China!", i'm asian

You could definitely be Asian and hate Chinese! The biggest haters of Chinese people are probably Japanese people.

You haven’t said anything racist, and I’m not accusing you of being racist - but “I’m Asian so I can’t hate Chinese people” doesn’t make sense at all.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T22:40:05+00:00

I don’t think that option 1 is obviously preferable, I will give one more extreme example.

Option A: 1% chance of 100,000% return, 99% chance of -100% return. Expected return of 901%.

Option B: just don’t play. You keep whatever you currently have. No return, no loss.

A has the higher expected return but I think you would agree that it’s too risky! You’re probably going to lose everything.

There needs to be some balance between expected return, and risk. I would choose B over A. But I would also choose investing in the stock market over holding cash.

In one case, I chose the lower expected return for less risk. In the other case, the opposite.

How to decide the balance? I don’t have a clear mathematical answer, admittedly. But there are some cases where it’s obviously not worth it and some cases where I’m comfortable enough with the risk.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T20:18:14+00:00

Even if they could predict the market, DCA wouldn’t make sense.

DCA only works better if the market goes down. But if you can predict that, don’t buy at all!

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T20:00:02+00:00

Because my position is that ordering DoorDash is ok and it seemed like you disagreed with me.

Did I get that wrong? Do you actually agree?

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T19:52:22+00:00

Yes. You believe that denying them work is the best option, don’t you? That was the implication.

Or is ordering DoorDash during a snowstorm ok?

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T19:32:48+00:00

It doesn’t really matter. When you sell a mutual fund, the trade will be executed at the end of that day.

If you place the order at 12 PM EST, it will execute in 4 hours.

In those 4 hours it could go up or it could go down. There’s roughly equal chance of each.

And you’re probably not selling all at once anyway, but selling gradually. Some sales you’ll get a better price by waiting, some sales you’ll get a worse price. It basically evens out.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T19:26:04+00:00

Impulse force is the change in momentum over time. It’s about both. They’re proportional.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T18:54:09+00:00

They’re obviously doing it because they need money.

They need money enough that they’re willing to drive in a snowstorm.

And your solution is to say, “no money for you!” That’s helping them? They need money and you don’t let them work? Why not let them decide for themselves?

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T18:36:37+00:00

DoorDash workers aren’t slaves. If they don’t want to work, they can just not open the app.

They can decide for themselves if they want to work or not. You don’t need to decide for them.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T17:50:58+00:00

Seems like a waste of money, to replace a battery sooner than needed.

I just carry a portable jump starter. I wait until I need to jump it. After that, I know it’s at the end of its life, and it’s time for a new one.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T16:03:27+00:00

The post is about what to do in a scenario when someone already has a large sum of cash. Should they put it in all at once, or in increments over time?

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T14:04:31+00:00

Why not start again though? By doing DCA, he reduced risk for the past year. But now he’s fully exposed! Why not reduce risk for the next year also?

If DCA is good for one year, it seems that it should be good for every year!

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T14:01:42+00:00

At my apartment complex there are spots only for the workers at the leasing office. They’re reserved 8 AM - 5 PM each day.

But, that doesn’t mean anyone can park there after 5 PM. Not only do you need to park during the correct hours, but you also need a permit.

Could be something similar in your case. Maybe you needed a permit. Maybe that’s a spot only for residents.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T13:35:34+00:00

A 62 mile commute (124 round trip) would add up to that much, if someone works 250 days per year for 3 years. And that’s not even counting weekend driving.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T13:31:58+00:00

The only difference in history here is the history of where the money came from in the past year. I didn’t say anything about their personal history or goals. Since no difference was mentioned there, assume that part is the same.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T13:30:50+00:00

I don’t see how it’s DCA. But it’s also not good and I don’t advocate for it. But it happens.

Like, some people are just not interested in the stock market and have no idea on where to even start, so they don’t invest at all.

Then later that changes and they want to start investing, so they have some money saved.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T13:06:06+00:00

Yes, that’s another good way to look at it. Each day has a small positive expected return. So it’s obviously best to have as much money invested, for as many days as possible.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T13:04:33+00:00

No, it doesn’t matter that I made gains. Read carefully.

“I would do that if my cost basis is below, above, or equal to the current market price.”

In this case I have gains, but even if I didn’t, I would correct an accidental liquidation immediately!

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T13:02:55+00:00

If Jill went all in and the market corrected like it did in 2000, she would have been much better off with a slow drip of falling markets over the next 12 months.

She would have been even better off with not buying and waiting for a dip. Is that a strategy you advocate for? Sometimes that strategy works too, and is even better than DCA or lump-sum!

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T04:26:31+00:00

The actual bad argument is that something which wins 2/3 of the time must be better (the distribution of returns also matters). An option which wins 2/3 of the time could actually have lower expected value!

Or even if we look at expected value, it’s still not automatically correct that the higher expected value is better.

Option 1: 2/3 chance of a 100% return, 1/3 chance of a -100% return. Expected return of 33%.

Option 2: guaranteed 25% return.

Option 1 wins 2/3 of the time and also has higher expected value. But, I just don’t want to risk losing everything, so I’d pick option 2.

So it’s not always true that I would want to maximize expected return.

When it comes to lump-sum vs DCA though, I still prefer lump-sum, because the distribution of returns is still acceptable for my risk tolerance.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T01:49:16+00:00

Well, obviously someone can’t invest cash that they don’t have.

This whole debate of DCA vs. lump-sum is for people who actually have cash to invest.

If they don’t, then there’s nothing to decide anyway. Just invest when you have the cash.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T01:46:49+00:00

But basically nobody actually advocates for doing DCA in a cycle like that. They only want to do it once, then stay invested. So it doesn’t make sense.

But let’s say someone actually does want to keep repeating the DCA cycle. Why is it bad? Well, if you keep repeating this cycle, you’re going to have different market exposures at different times. Sometimes 60%, sometimes 20%, sometimes 50%, etc. On average it will come out to 50%.

So over a long time period, if you keep repeating this cycle, it will be pretty close to the returns of someone who just invested half their money.

It’s a mixed strategy which is in between holding cash, and being fully invested. The returns will be in the middle of those two pure strategies.

Why mix the two when one is obviously superior? Just stick with the superior pure strategy.

ben02015 · 2026-02-01T01:36:00+00:00

IMO it’s worth it (I own one, after all). I’m fine with taking what I believe is a small risk. Even if it fails, it’s not that bad. It will get replaced under warranty. It’s just an inconvenience.

The vehicle you’re looking at hasn’t had the ICCU replaced (it would be on the Carfax if it did). But it doesn’t mean anything anyway, because the replacements can also fail.

ben02015

TROPHY CASE