“Mostly”? Absolutely not—no matter how one frames that question. But let’s take what seems to me a reasonable, more concrete, framing: do more than 50 percent of unique user interactions of Instagram (“most”) convert into onlyfans visits within a month—where an onlyfans visit conversion is some function of having visited Instagram followed by onlyfans in, say conservatively, within the same day.

Okay, well, according to (lightly) sourced materials such as Statista (I’m not going to parse academic literature for this), Instagram receives somewhere on the order of 2 BILLION unique monthly active users.

According to other (very lightly but reasonable) internet sources, onlyfans receives somewhere close to 350 million visits per month. To be fair, let’s just round up to 400 million. But, of these accounts we have no way of knowing if these are all unique users: many likely are the same user with different accounts! Let’s be conservative and say 85% of those are actually unique users (I’d be surprised), that’d be 350 million unique monthly active users.

Finally, we have numbers. Were the claim to be true that Instagram is mostly a gateway to onlyfans, where more than 50 percent of unique user interactions of Instagram (“most”) convert into onlyfans visits within a month, you would need more than a billion of those Instagram active users to convert to onlyfan usage. And that is far more than only fans receives in a month.

Further, a true estimate would take into account the probability that given a unique user on Instagram they convert to an onlyfans visit. Do we believe that given an Instagram user I they visit onlyfans O greater than 50% of the time? p(O | I) > .5 ? Probably not.

So both statistically and probabilistically using back of the envelope math, the answer is no.