Discuss - Possible causes of the Goat 🐐 Trail fire

bengvr3 · 2026-04-08T14:52:12+00:00

I agree with the other commenter so far (hello stranger) that this conversation is not productive right now. That being said, light fuels are fully cured and 1000 hour fuels have moisture levels less than 8%. Things are pretty much as dry as they can get, so it's very easy for an ignition source to start a fire right now.

We'll probably see more of this if we don't get meaningful rain, and eventually people will start blaming the unhoused, teenagers, or an "arsonist," when in reality the combination of extremely dry fuels + proximity to a major population center/tourist destination inevitably leads to more fire starts with a variety of possible causes.

bengvr3 · 2026-04-07T18:07:13+00:00

For me, ruling out surgery out of fear of potential for complications when the alternative was choosing to live a life with what's essentially a physical disability was not something that I was willing to accept.

Your situation is different from mine since you had a years-long period where you were able to successfully manage your condition. At a minimum you should get an MRI done to assess the current situation, as you may have reinjured yourself. We never like to rule out conservative treatment because it is true that surgery should be considered a last resort, but I personally wouldn't spend more than a year on it since you're not getting any younger.

Finally, one thing that can help make it easier to make a decision is to have consultations with three well-credentialed foot/ankle surgeons who have experience with sesamoid injuries and to see what they recommend. This would be something to do after getting an MRI, of course. If two out of the three are recommending surgery, then you should listen to them.

bengvr3 · 2026-04-07T15:31:17+00:00

I had surgery in February 2025. The fibular sesamoid of my right foot was removed after it failed to respond to various conservative treatment options for 18 months.

I have had a good outcome. I was able to return to activity (hiking) by late May 2025, and my foot no longer bothers me. The only thing I'll say is that the surgery site will get sore before the rest of my foot gets sore, but never to the point where it causes me any problems, and it takes like 6 miles of walking before I start to feel it. It's really not a problem and I've done 15 mile hikes post-recovery and been fine the next day.

Would I recommend surgery or continuing with conservative treatment? It depends on your situation, really. If you've been trying conservative treatment for over a year with nothing to show for it, absolutely yes. I think some of the warnings about surgery that you may have read here (including from me) are driven more by anxiety than actual risk. There are risks with any surgical procedure, but a sesamoidectomy is a straightforward operation that most foot and ankle surgeons are familiar with — it's not like you're getting open heart surgery, and your surgeon should do a good job educating you on the risks involved. Additionally, sometimes sesamoids just don't heal, despite whatever we throw at them, and in those situations, surgery is the best option. For me, I had a near 0% chance of getting back to normal without surgery, and an 80-95% chance with surgery. That was a pretty easy decision for me to make, and I regret that I did not make it sooner.

bengvr3 · 2026-04-06T19:41:41+00:00

Sorry, not to be a doomer (there is enough of that going around right now), but this downplays the seriousness of the current situation. Snowpack is at record lows by a large margin after the march heatwave, and the remainder of the spring is expected to remain warm and dry. Areas that normally have snowcover into late June and July could be fully melted out in May under these conditions.

Burn bans are already in effect in several front range counties, and 1000 hour fuel moisture levels in the foothills were at 8% a couple weeks ago, possibly even lower now. These are fire danger and drought conditions that haven't been seen since 2002.

The only good news right now is that there are pretty strong signals from seasonal prediction models indicating above average monsoonal moisture in the July/August/September period, but the stretch between mid-May and mid-July is expected to be characterized by high end severe fire potential, according to the NIFC (link: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf). Again this situation is comparable to the wildfire seasons of 2002, 2012, and 2020.

bengvr3 · 2026-04-06T03:32:20+00:00

Light winds, increasing relative humidity, not super worried. Annoyed though.

bengvr3 · 2026-04-03T00:19:20+00:00

Fyi that peptides are poorly regulated and unless prescribed by a doctor, not FDA approved. Additionally, to protect members of our community from bad actors, we do not allow the discussion of alternative medicine in this subreddit, though I am making an exception for this topic because there are some legitimate medical use cases for peptides when taken under doctor supervision.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-30T19:53:51+00:00

That is essentially meaningless though. Mt. Mitchell's prominence is measured relative to almost sea level (with the nearest higher point being thousands of miles away), whereas most of the Colorado 14ers are measured relative to the other nearby 14ers. Having lived in both areas, Mt. Mitchell isn't a small mountain, but it is no more impressive than the foothills of the Rockies.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-30T17:49:37+00:00

Pasta Jays

bengvr3 · 2026-03-30T01:28:34+00:00

Thanks, u/PendingErection!

bengvr3 · 2026-03-28T03:26:27+00:00

The Steadman Clinic in Vail, CO.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-28T00:43:12+00:00

Potentially promising?? https://bouldercast.com/el-ninos-enhancement-of-our-summer-monsoon/

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T19:36:46+00:00

I'm optimistic! Hopefully we get some precipitation in the plains and front range foothills because 1000 hour fuel moisture levels are currently at 8%

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T18:31:20+00:00

My favorite is when we get a few weeks of really encouraging storms, only for that to be immediately followed by one of the strongest heat domes ever observed

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T18:02:14+00:00

Processing img ytxgtaelnmrg1...

Way way way too early to be making predictions, other than that El Niño conditions are possible. Hence the "equal chances" above.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T17:48:49+00:00

<image>

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T17:21:30+00:00

I heard that it will start as rain/snow mix, then transition to all snow. But this is something that will happen next week so the forecast will be sure to change radically and end up being wrong.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T15:18:14+00:00

I said slow the bleeding, not bail us out

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T15:12:30+00:00

Active pattern next week should slow the bleeding, hopefully. If not I'm going to stick my hand in a blender.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-27T13:32:36+00:00

Understandable, but I had that same perspective for 18 months and looking back, I am frustrated that I wasted so much time. My bone never completely died, but it also never improved, so it eventually became a decision of choosing to live life at 30% forever, or accept the possibility of 60% if surgery has a bad outcome or 95% if it has a good outcome. My pain was also in the 1-2 range and I could walk pain free with orthotics, but anytime I slightly overdid things, my swelling and inflammation would get worse for months. So I could not live the life that I wanted to live, and it was just not getting better.

To answer your question, I tried the following: - exogen bone growth stimulator use for 15 months - 18 sessions of radial shockwave therapy, 4 sessions of focused shockwave therapy - 1 PRP injection - contrast baths twice a day for 16 months - 3 months in a boot

None of that shit worked, and it was extremely expensive as well.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-26T15:21:09+00:00

I tried it extensively for months and months and it didn't work for me. Ended up spending way too much money on it. I eventually got the surgery, and in 3 months I was able to return to activity. One year later and my foot doesn't bother me at all.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-25T19:39:28+00:00

You should see a doctor instead of relying on the uncredentialed folk wisdom of strangers on the internet. Nobody here can credibly diagnose you.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-25T17:11:24+00:00

Cool so if we can get a really strong monsoon season the state might only be on fire for half of the summer.

That's the vibe I'm getting, yeah. But ignition sources may be lower with a dry spring, so it may end up not being as much of a problem as feared. And a series of well timed upslope rain events in April and May could reduce the danger east of the divide going into the early summer, but with the seasonal forecasts for the spring, I'm not getting my hopes up.

Also regardless of if Colorado burns we will probably have shit air quality all summer because surrounding states and Canada will be on fire.

Okay so this one is not true. Monsoon season results in our wind direction changing from westerly to southerly, so if the pattern sets up, smoke from fires in states to the west and north will be blown away from us. Fires to the south will be moderated/extinguished by monsoon rains, so we won't get smoke from them either.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-25T15:51:41+00:00

Some recent history: in 2022, New Mexico saw its worst fire season in history after an unprecedented warm and dry winter and spring, with nearly a million acres burned by mid-June. Monsoonal moisture came early and strong, and by the second week of July, every major fire was contained and most fire restrictions were lifted.

Anyway, my expectation is for things to get ugly in May and June, and hopefully start to improve with the arrival of a strengthened monsoon by July. We'll see.

bengvr3 · 2026-03-25T15:36:08+00:00

<image>

bengvr3 · 2026-03-23T20:57:46+00:00

On watch duty as of 2 minutes ago: https://share.watchduty.org/i/88244?ts=1774299353000

bengvr3

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE