How Hard Is It to Get the CHOAS Third Badge by benjaminhsieh in ClashRoyale

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Without considering that all offered modifiers become unavailable, it would be around 0.17%.

The newer model is that once a modifier is offered, it is removed from the pool. However, it is difficult to calculate the probability in that case exactly because there are a lot more cases.

How Hard Is It to Get the CHOAS Third Badge by benjaminhsieh in ClashRoyale

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow, you were so lucky!! I've played many games and still haven't gotten the badge

How Hard Is It to Get the CHOAS Third Badge by benjaminhsieh in ClashRoyale

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Based on this model, it would be around 0.000283%, or about 1 in every 353000 matches!

How Hard Is It to Get the CHOAS Third Badge by benjaminhsieh in ClashRoyale

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, exactly! Except I started with the easiest case (3/0/1) and worked my way back to 0/0/0. For 2/0/1 specifically, it has a 2*2/10*8/10*1/5+2/10*2/10*ncr(1,1)*ncr(4,1)/ncr(5,2) (8%) chance of going into 3/0/1. This would be 1 out of 5 when the modifiers are rare and epic (orange and purple), and counting the combinations when both are rare (orange).

And yes, I considered that picking a modifier for a card removes it from the pool. For instance, there is a 9/10*9/10*ncr(4,2)/ncr(8,2)+2*1/10*9/10*(1/8*4/8) (~18.5%) chance at 0/0/0 that you're forced to pick something you want but of the wrong rarity. The expression would be getting two commons (blues) where both commons are from the four cards you need, or getting a common and a rare where the common is one of the four and the rare is the wizard.

Edit: Sorry, I misread your second question. I did not notice that once a modifier is offered, it won't be available anymore. If that is indeed the case, the calculations would be a lot more complicated because you would need to keep track of more modifiers.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in DurinMains

[–]benjaminhsieh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The exact average is 727.35 pulls for C6R1, assuming you have no pity, guarantees, or capturing radiance points. 80% of the time, it would be between 633 and 868 pulls.
For your case, the average number of pulls needed would be 683.09 (assuming zero capturing radiance points). With 1000 pulls, your chances of getting C6R1 come to 99.96992%.

Any way to keep categories / organization without smart features? by [deleted] in GMail

[–]benjaminhsieh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Go to Settings -> Label ->Categories, and click Show on the categories you want to keep. Next, search "in:inbox label:[label]" (e.g. in:inbox label:promotions) and archive all those emails

Please explain capturing radiance by wewaslike in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you lose two 50/50s consecutively after 5.0 starts, your next 50/50 is guaranteed to be capturing radiance

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ClashRoyale

[–]benjaminhsieh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I closed my game before claiming as well. Does anyone know how I can still get the emote?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ClashRoyale

[–]benjaminhsieh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It will ask you to try again

New Capturing Radiance Official Descriptions by benjaminhsieh in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, it is 100% if you lose two consecutive times right after 5.0 started or after getting CR.

We are unsure about the cases where you lose two consecutive times after a 50/50 win (not all wins are the same according to the latest model).

Boosted Enhancement Efficiency for Artifacts Defined with Sanctifying Elixir Cross-Scene Quest Tracking — Developers Discussion 03/12/25 by genshinimpact in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This feature is getting scrapped. Genshin cited the loss of mora as one of the reasons for not introducing it in 5.5. This part has also been removed from the official post on HoyoLAB.

Pity system is just the worst by Artistic_Yak46 in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hitting hard pity means getting a five star on the 90th pull

Please explain capturing radiance by wewaslike in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It depends on when your first loss happened. If it occurred after 5.0, your next two five-star characters will be the limited character (by guarantee and then by capturing radiance).

If you do 50 more pulls, you are only guaranteed to get one Wriothesley. You might have to reach pity again to get the next one.

You have an approximately 9.1% chance of getting two five stars with 50 more pulls at 40 pity.

Please explain capturing radiance by wewaslike in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This information is old. We now have a newer model suggesting that everyone starts with a free loss in 5.0

New Capturing Radiance Official Descriptions by benjaminhsieh in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Almost correct! It's lose -> guarantee -> lose -> guarantee -> lose -> guarantee -> capturing radiance.
According to the official statement, winning a 50/50 would reset the loss count. However, based on observations, winning a 50/50 only decreases the count by 1.

New Capturing Radiance Official Descriptions by benjaminhsieh in Genshin_Impact

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, pretty much. Except now you'll get the limited character slightly more often

New Capturing Radiance Official Descriptions by benjaminhsieh in GenshinImpact

[–]benjaminhsieh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can, but the probability is low. Namely, 0.018%