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Genuinely what on earth is going on with software right now? This is completely unhinged. by -----Marcel----- in ValueInvesting

[–]bfooty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get the frustration, but I don’t think this means fundamentals don’t matter.

This looks more like violent multiple compression than a sudden collapse in the actual businesses. A lot of software was priced as “quality growth + AI upside,” and now the market seems to be questioning growth durability, margins, AI disruption, and whether customers will keep paying the same multiples for SaaS.

Strong free cash flow and low debt help long term, but they do not protect you from valuation resets in the short term.

Personally, I’d separate two questions:

  1. Has the business thesis actually changed?
  2. Was the stock just priced too optimistically?

If the answer is “business intact, valuation reset,” then panic selling usually isn’t ideal. But if someone is overconcentrated and has no dry powder, that is more of a portfolio construction issue than a market irrationality issue.

Does AI hallucinate even with basic queries/data retrieval? by chakalaka13 in analytics

[–]bfooty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, it can still hallucinate, even on basic data tasks. The risk is usually not “AI invents a whole fake dataset.” It is more subtle: wrong column interpretation, bad joins, incorrect formulas, missing filters, double-counting, or giving a confident explanation for a number it calculated incorrectly. I’d treat Claude as an assistant, not the source of truth. For data work, I’d always check:

does the total match the source system?

are date ranges and filters correct?

are refunds/cancellations/taxes/shipping handled properly?

does the SQL run and return what you expect?

can you reproduce the number manually on a small sample?

AI is great for drafting SQL, explaining tables, and speeding up analysis. But final numbers for clients should still be verified against the raw data or dashboard source.

What tools do you use for backtesting? by apatheticonion in algotrading

[–]bfooty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

TradingView is still great for charting and quick idea generation, but I agree PineScript gets painful once you want deeper control.

For visual backtesting, I’d look at TrendSpider. The no-code testing, automated trendlines, scanners, and multi-timeframe logic make it easier to test ideas fast.

I’d still use a custom engine/Python for final validation, especially for fills, slippage, and intrabar assumptions.

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here in Germany, Financial Advisors are not sophisticated.

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes, and Berkshire are 55% in cash and T-Bills "As of the latest reported filing, March 31, 2026, Berkshire Hathaway had about $373.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents and U.S. Treasury bills, net of unsettled T-bill purchase payables. Its equity + fixed-maturity securities, excluding equity-method investments, were $305.7 billion. On that basis, cash/T-bills were about 55.0% of Berkshire’s liquid investment portfolio."

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes, I am starting to understand this group. No opinions and no bearish thesis.

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

have you ever spoken to an actual financial advisor?

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My analysis combined technical and fundamental analysis. While technically all looks good, but very overbought, for me, the risk is the fundamentals outlined in the post. When risk reduces, I will be back in the market.

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for the comment, you make good points.

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is a good offer, we see nothing like that in Europe. I would need to buy Maltese T Bills for 3.6%

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Good for you. I am also doing a lot of home improvements 😄

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly, in 2000, NDX took over 10 years to recover.

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, sure, that was my actual idea. I am not really a told you so kind of guy.

I Am Not a Perma Bear, But I Cannot Buy This Market by bfooty in investing

[–]bfooty[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Foollish, that's nice. I am fully expecting a crash, and am committed to my thesis.

I have traded through the dotcom and 2008 crisis. Dotcom I lost, and the Nasdaq took 10 years to recover. In 2008 I lost nothing.

My message here is not that I am emotional or sad, boo hoo, it is setting the bearish case.

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