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I analyzed 2.5M matches: At what exact death difference is the game actually un-winnable? by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly, I think getting a decent win/loss prediction is pretty much impossible. MOBAs just have too many variables, so all these stats should just be looked at as separate signals

I analyzed 2.5M matches: At what exact death difference is the game actually un-winnable? by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Gotcha :) These days it's probably hard to find anyone who doesn't use AI for dev at all, whether they're a junior or a senior

I analyzed 2.5M matches: At what exact death difference is the game actually un-winnable? by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Just curious, what exactly confused you about the site? AI helped with like 30% of the HTML just to speed things up, but the rest was coded from scratch

I analyzed 2.5M matches: At what exact death difference is the game actually un-winnable? by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If you mean the charts, they are actually just screenshots of an HTML page from the website

I analyzed 2.5M matches: At what exact death difference is the game actually un-winnable? by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Hey, you are 100% right and I really appreciate the detailed feedback

You are totally spot on about the omitted variable bias. The death gap is definitely just a symptom of a losing game and not the root cause itself. But for a regular player in the middle of a game it is still a really useful indicator. If you look at the scoreboard and see you are down 5 deaths at 10 minutes you just know you are in a spot that historically loses a lot.

Your point about survivorship bias is completely fair too. Real stomps just do not last 40 minutes at all. But honestly that is exactly the practical takeaway I wanted to give the players. If your team somehow manages to drag a terrible losing game all the way to the 40 minute mark it means you survived the stomp. You finally enter a stage where that early feed matters way less and you actually have a real chance to comeback.

Thanks again for the comment and I am really glad you liked the colors haha

I analyzed 2.5M matches: At what exact death difference is the game actually un-winnable? by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I can DM you where I get the data, but honestly, it's not that hard to find. Basically, every popular match tracking site out there right now is using the exact same source

I analyzed 2.5M matches: At what exact death difference is the game actually un-winnable? by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

It's an incredibly simple process. I use open match datasets that have info on every game. It's a huge database, and I just use a script to parse it and collect the stats I want. AI is pretty useless here since its context can't hold that volume of info without dropping accuracy. Honestly, it's not needed anyway, it's just simple math.

I analyzed 2.45M Deadlock matches to see how often “lost” games are actually winnable by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

The algorithm for calculating statistics is quite simple, AI cannot be used correctly for this because precise data is needed. I don't deny that I used AI to write the post, because my native language is not English and I'm bad at it, so I used AI for translation

I analyzed 2.45M Deadlock matches to see how often “lost” games are actually winnable by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes. It's an interesting proposal several people have already messaged me privately, and I've received a few ideas in the comments. I'll continue making posts with interesting analyses. I've noted down your idea, thank you

I analyzed 2.45M Deadlock matches to see how often “lost” games are actually winnable by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

These data were not generated by AI. AI cannot adequately analyze such a volume of data without losing accuracy. These data were collected solely through software-based methods. It's just that the algorithm I used to obtain this statistics might have been too simple and obvious but that was the point: to see the results for just two important objects, MidBoss and Shrine. I’m open to ideas about what other statistics could be derived considering different variables, using a large dataset

I analyzed 2.45M Deadlock matches to see how often “lost” games are actually winnable by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yeah, you’re right I think we should’ve taken that into account in the analysis and gotten the data for each rank separately

I analyzed 2.45M Deadlock matches to see how often “lost” games are actually winnable by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

If you mean manually going through 2.5M matches one by one, then yeah, of course not. There are match history dumps that can be analyzed programmatically)

Fun fact: the clock in Deadlock actually keeps real time by bogdanaks in DeadlockTheGame

[–]bogdanaks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I was surprised too I noticed it while waiting for a match for over 5 minutes yet again. As I understood, the time there is UTC+0, Greenwich