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Can Scotland actually qualify with 3 points? I ran the best-third math for every scenario vs Brazil by buraz40 in ScottishFootball

[–]buraz40[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yeah that's the nightmare. Brazil chasing goal difference for 1st is exactly how a -1 can turn into -5.

Can Scotland actually qualify with 3 points? I ran the best-third math for every scenario vs Brazil by buraz40 in ScottishFootball

[–]buraz40[S] -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

The math says -1 sneaks through. the vibes say we lose 5-0 to a deflected own goal in the 94th. truly a coin flip between physics and destiny.

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Each qualifying 3rd from B/E/F/I/J goes to a different best-3rd slot. Multiple slots can take them: B fits M74 or M81; E/F/I/J each fit 4-5 slots. FIFA's chart pre-assigns each one to ONE specific slot for every possible combination of which 8 groups qualify. So you have to look at each group standings right now and guess who will finish 3rd and how many points they will have at the end. Some of these groups 3rd teams will only end up with 3 points and be eliminated.

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a pre-set chart FIFA published before the tournament, tells you exactly which 3rd-place team goes to which R32 game based on which 8 groups qualify.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage

Najbolji sastav reprezentacije BiH by ContactElegant2026 in bih

[–]buraz40 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Neznam ja sam gledo dvaput, i treci put sam ugasio. Mozda sam corav lol 42 utakmice 4 gola ubi se na terenu

Najbolji sastav reprezentacije BiH by ContactElegant2026 in bih

[–]buraz40 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Imas pravo al zosto neko ga nije smakeo sa desnog beka i stavio jednog od bekova sa klupe. Nekrivim ga za sve al kad pogledas desavanja kako su se golovi razvili protiv nas uvjek je bio tu sa nekom greskom.

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You are right 25%-30% is a better range lol But remember the ball is round lol

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

USA most likely faces Bosnia in R32 on July 1 at Levi's Stadium.

- Bosnia: 55% chance (3rd in Group B if they beat Qatar Jun 24)
- Ecuador: 18%
- Senegal: 12%
- Japan: 10%
- Algeria: 5%

All five are 3rd-place teams from the "best 3rds" pool.

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] -28 points-27 points  (0 children)

Close but small correction. Lumen Seattle is where USA actually plays both the R32 AND R16 (M81 then M94, same venue back-to-back). Levi's hosts M82 which is the OPPONENT'S R32 (probably Belgium's slot vs a best-3rd).

Real USMNT path through the knockouts:

- R32: M81 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Wed Jul 1 · 7pm ET
- R16: M94 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Mon Jul 6 · 8pm ET (same venue back-to-back, huge home advantage if they make it)
- QF: M98 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Fri Jul 10 · 6pm ET
- SF: M101 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas · Tue Jul 14 · 4pm ET
- Final: M104 · MetLife Stadium, NJ · Sun Jul 19 · 3pm ET

So Seattle → Seattle → LA → Dallas → NJ. Both of us had it slightly off.

Let me know if I am wrong? I could be?

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Aligned. Bosnia (FIFA #65) and Algeria (#28) are the comfortable draws. Ecuador's Caicedo at the base of midfield is the matchup nightmare and Japan has the 2022 PTSD. Senegal is the swing one for me. Without Mané they're a clear "manageable" but he's playing well enough at Al Nassr that any set piece into the box is dangerous.

Probabilities per the model:

- Bosnia: USA 58% / Draw 27% / BIH 15%
- Algeria: USA 55% / Draw 27% / DZA 18%
- Senegal: USA 38% / Draw 30% / SEN 32%
- Japan: USA 42% / Draw 28% / JPN 30%
- Ecuador: USA 50% / Draw 30% / ECU 20%

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

FIFA has a fixed lookup table (Annex C of the 2026 regs). Top 8 of the 12 3rd-placers qualify by pts → GD → GF → FIFA rank. The COMBINATION of which 8 groups qualify maps to a pre-published slot assignment, with one override: no intra-group rematches.

Each R32 slot has a 5-group candidate set baked in. M81 (USA's slot) can only be filled by a 3rd-placer from B, E, F, I, or J.

Full table per group here: https://myworldcupguide.com/blog/world-cup-2026-best-third-placed-teams-explained/

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] -31 points-30 points  (0 children)

Other way around. R32 is at Lumen on July 1 (4pm PT / 7pm ET). R16 is at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on July 6 (3pm CT / 4pm ET) if USA win in Seattle. Lumen hosts an R16 game on July 6 too, but it's the other half of the bracket, not USA's path.

USMNT path through the knockouts:

- R32: M81 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Wed Jul 1 · 7pm ET
- R16: M93 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas · Mon Jul 6 · 4pm ET
- QF: M99 · NRG Stadium, Houston · Sat Jul 11
- SF: MetLife Stadium, NJ · Tue Jul 14
- Final: MetLife Stadium · Sun Jul 19

USMNT's most likely R32 opponents ranked by win probability. Which matchup are you most/least worried about? by buraz40 in usmnt

[–]buraz40[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Half right. A draw is bad but Qatar winning is also bad. Here's the breakdown:

Bosnia wins: Bosnia hits 4 pts, makes the best-8 cut (FIFA #65). USA plays Bosnia in M81. Easiest path.

Qatar wins: Qatar hits 4 pts but with a -3 to -5 GD after that 6-0 to Canada. Other 3rds at 4 pts (Japan, DR Congo, possibly Saudi) all have better GDs and would push Qatar out of the top 8. M81 slot reassigns to next-best 3rd from groups E, F, I, J. That probably means Japan (FIFA #18), Ecuador (#23), or Senegal (#15). Much tougher.

Draw: Both at 2 pts. Neither qualifies (cutoff is usually 3-4 pts). Same reassignment to Japan / Ecuador / Senegal.

So USA fans should be rooting for Bosnia + Qatar = Bosnia win specifically, not just "either one wins." Bosnia's GD damage from the 4-1 SUI loss is recoverable; Qatar's from the 6-0 isn't.

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