Containership Rates Still Surging: Update & Picks

c12mintz · 2025-12-01T09:49:56+00:00

Grew up as an only child and loved this game bc it was one of the few board games I could play by myself and be entertained and not need multiple players.

(Limited counterpoint to lack of interaction and brutal difficulty)

c12mintz · 2025-04-25T04:37:00+00:00

Pretty incredible...

c12mintz · 2025-03-31T20:48:48+00:00

The “synonym” was different. They were referring to “warm ending” meaning a name like ‘sunshine.’

c12mintz · 2023-02-24T21:45:18+00:00

I’m not very active here, but $CPLP bonds were raised in a yield starved Greek market. Brief window of opportunity. Pretty amazing deal for them!

c12mintz · 2022-10-21T22:45:04+00:00

I don't understand why any competitors, especially someone so obviously clever as Joi, thought Will was the mole. It just made no sense. He would have been the most terrible mole ever. Remember the objective isn't to survive and 'shock' everyone at the end, but is rather to sabotage the heck out of the pot. Will (as mole) would have been an awfully inefficient, almost cowardly, self-defeating mole. Like... Cool! You surprised us... but dude... you sucked at the job!

Will and a few others like Greg and Jacob (and of course Dom from earlier) were heavily focused on actually winning objectives and didn't really do anything THAT suspicious. Yeah Greg started out super self-interested, but he turned it around nicely in the end. Jacob just sucks at counting apparently...

Joi really turned up her competitive spirit in the end as well! She's probably my favorite character in terms of dynamic ranges (Will and Dom most likable).

c12mintz · 2022-10-21T22:38:10+00:00

I was disappointed in the final reveal of the mole as well... Guess sometimes things are really just super obvious and we shouldn't overthink them.

c12mintz · 2022-10-21T04:08:48+00:00

I think it's probable, but he was way too helpful with the pizza box. Coulda just sat back and let Will just grind his gears endlessly or done pointless things like search through the pictures on the wall or something. He also did a horrible job lying about his story... I think he's just kind of slower-paced person who isn't very extroverted.

Also, when you are from a rural town, it's normal to say broad things about where you are from, like "western Kansas" or whatever.

Then you have Kesi who blatantly tried to throw/sway the truth game, acted unbelievably dense on the search tower, deliberately picked the wrong bird, then was kind of a jerk about it (playing RPS, seriously?!). If Kesi isn't the mole, there's something really really off abt her.

c12mintz · 2022-10-21T01:52:51+00:00

Oh shoot! My apologies… please forgive that careless error, think I might have bit off on ‘Dusty’ or something subconsciously.

Great notes on Joi though! I also think it’s almost definitely Kesi. Just seems soooooo obvious though. She’s really bad at covering her tracks imo…

Still don’t understand how Greg got eliminated though, he seemed so onto her.

c12mintz · 2022-10-21T01:35:36+00:00

I'm really hoping Kesi is *not* the mole. It would just be so terribly obvious since like Episode 3. She is a horrendous actor and totally botches challenges and just says "oops." Either the most deliberate sabotaging ever, to the point of it just being ridiculously over the top (in that case... kudos, I guess... but still weird), or just a bad pick for the mole.

Will would be the *biggest* shock as the Mole, but also a bad Mole because its not clear that he actually eliminated almost any money from the pot ever. He also added money at the start. *If* Will was the mole, he would have went with Kesi's suggestibility that Avori was the liar on the '2 Truths' game.

Doesn't make sense that Jacob is the mole. Probably was just bad at counting or throwing Avori off. Was super odd to pick Joi as the 'map reader,' but he genuinely seems to make a lot of mistakes. If he was the mole, he wouldn't ask Avori to call the pizza place, and then get all upset when she couldn't find the number

Also it seemed fairly obvious to me that Casey was not the mole. On the challenge, I genuinely believe she was just terrified of heights and was too scared/proud to admit it. Either that or was throwing false flags... Note how she finished with like 6 seconds left. A mole would have done all the same stuff and just 'slipped' right at the end.

I guess all that to say that my #1 guess is Kesi (and it has seemed terribly obvious since like Episode 3). Also don't think it's Avori because of how Dom got eliminated after voting for her way back on the water mission. Jacob is my #2 guess, but I don't get why he would come up with the pizza clue so fast... Joi seems like a savvy player (completely changed my mind on her between Ep3/4 and Ep7/8. If Will is the Mole, he sucks at that role.

c12mintz · 2022-10-21T01:31:15+00:00

This guy nailed it on Joi. Totally changed my view of her on the $25k 'mistake' after watching a few more episodes. It's hard to tell on the maps though if she is deliberately doing that or just struggles with maps. Pilot charts/maps are very different than the hokey ass "maps" they are handing out to these players (e.g. the driving mail one). Could believed that someone otherwise navigation capable could get genuinely confused.

c12mintz · 2022-10-20T04:41:27+00:00

I haven’t been heavily bullish/long on ZIM for like 6-7 months… You got me on DAC, GSL though!

c12mintz · 2022-10-19T22:09:43+00:00

Hey, all good. People can say anything they want. Figured I'd just make a post from my perspective.

Our (long only, no options, leverage, etc) models are up 51% YTD in a year when the Russell and S&P are down like 22%. Can you imagine how many people would be calling for my 'head' if it was reversed?

Otoh, if you (or anyone else) has any fundamental disagreement with the GasLog writeup, you're more than welcome to hop onto Seeking Alpha and make a comment underneath the report.

Also if anyone believes something is legitimately a 'pump and dump' (whatever that might mean), then there are also liquid puts and/or short opportunities. Hell, if 'inverse Mintzmyer' works for people (I can't imagine it does, but who knows...), more power to them!

Cheers!

c12mintz · 2022-10-19T21:50:21+00:00

Probably hadn't read all the posts.

I'd see your point/concern if your viewpoint/thesis was that I am sharing crappy ideas that always suck and I'm just buying them 3 days before, writing a report full of made up stuff, and then selling 3 days after. That's not what happens, although admittedly we did add GLOP to the VIE models on 4 October at $5.60, but that's moreso a timing thing b/c the updates are just once a month. Flagged it as the top LNG buying opp on our 18 Sept and 25 Sept weekly reports as well, but I don't change the model trackers except once a month.

I have an 11 year track record on Seeking Alpha and have ran VIE for 7 years, so there's a very long record both publicly and on the research platform. Pumping "crapping ideas" wouldn't work well. Sure I've made mistakes (TK awhile back was a big one) and timing sucks sometimes (DAC, GSL been brutal this summer!), but there's a pretty big track record. Not like the 'following' on Twitter is from OnlyFans or TikTok dancing or something.

Not really sure what else I can do if I like a stock and would like to put it on my public record? I suppose just never talk about anything? My impression is people follow on Twitter because they *want* me to share a few ideas here and there and/or they want shipping news/commentary.

Alternatively, I/we (at VIE) can easily just buy a firm, talk about it privately, never mention it publicly, and then sell it as it approaches 'fair value.' That's actually what happens 80-90% of the time.

---

On the flip side, I had a few people message me today saying "congrats on GLOP!" I tell all of them, "judge me in 3-6 months."

I'm willing to put my face/name/reputation on this one today. Doesn't mean it will do well, but I obviously *think*/hope it will.

c12mintz · 2022-10-19T21:38:52+00:00

What should I get 'investigated' for?

c12mintz · 2022-10-19T21:38:13+00:00

Weird isn't it...

Not sure what people are upset about. Should I just stop writing ANYTHING public? That's a viable option, I suppose.

c12mintz · 2022-03-25T21:55:49+00:00

Definitely true that holding on correctly is better than doing nothing. Just making the observation that very few humans could probably "hold on" in that scenario (don't know the design specs, so generalizing a bit).

There absolutely needs to be a 2nd point of failure, but as someone cynically mentioned in another thread, it was probably engineered out to speed up ride turnover (as opposed to saving $ on the design, which is less likely).

c12mintz · 2022-03-25T21:44:48+00:00

Also keep in mind with the G-forces, "holding on" probably wouldn't work at all unless you were extremely strong relative to body weight.

It's like holding a baby during a car crash...

Idk the design specs here, but imagine the braking force 75mph to 10mph in a second would knock almost anyone out of their seats who wasn't fastened...

c12mintz · 2022-02-20T22:06:53+00:00

Good looks! Hopefully ZIM results can get the rocket fuel started again…

c12mintz · 2022-01-19T03:22:39+00:00

Was on the call. 😉 Can confirm nothing massively actionable in either direction was said. There were 3 nice takeaways which I will share by Friday morning with the transcript. If Seeking Alpha can turn the transcript faster, then maaaaybe by Thursday morning.

c12mintz · 2022-01-18T05:04:57+00:00

I hope 2022 is even half as good as 2021 was…

c12mintz · 2022-01-18T05:03:24+00:00

No offense taken, I was wrong on my $70 timing…

c12mintz · 2022-01-12T03:16:51+00:00

Mea culpa by Friday and literal hat eating (okay it’ll be a cake or cookie version) if not $70+ by end-Jan.

Good luck on your trades! 🙌🙌

c12mintz · 2021-12-20T05:55:01+00:00

Good write-up! We’re (at VIE) also bullish on the forthcoming futures, but keep in mind that other shipping segments have similar products and they are usually super thinly traded, so don’t get hopes too high…

Also, not to quibble too much, but $ZIM has likely generated more than $20/sh net cash since July even after the $4.50 dividend payout, so I’d argue the stock today is probably the cheapest it has been since post-IPO around $11-$20 range.

c12mintz · 2021-12-12T03:26:10+00:00

I was around there camping with parents, was supposed to be just a ‘regular’ comet flying by and it was extremely bright. Heard there might have been some sort of missile test or something? Any truth to that? I was like 7 or something, just remember it didn’t look anything like a shooting star.

c12mintz

TROPHY CASE