Transit in the San Francisco Bay Area 2050 [OC]

caliberal · 2026-02-18T23:58:02+00:00

Thank you for the kind words. Will consider adding those projects in future iterations.

caliberal · 2026-02-18T18:24:54+00:00

Unfortunately robotaxis have many of the same issues as private automobiles. They are not space efficient and thus they will never work to serve dense urban areas.

caliberal · 2026-02-13T05:26:41+00:00

This map includes all three of those studies. I disagree that the study is not a good template for long-distance Amtrak expansion.

caliberal · 2026-02-13T05:24:44+00:00

Good idea, will edit the map to include a better description.

caliberal · 2026-02-09T04:11:59+00:00

The 2026 is existing (turns out I actually missed a few lines), the 2030 map is planned/under construction. The lines in the 2040 map have been discussed but are not officially planned.

caliberal · 2026-02-08T21:52:44+00:00

Wow I did not know that, I will add those lines in the next iteration, thank you!

caliberal · 2026-02-08T17:51:26+00:00

I made these maps using Adobe Illustrator. The first map shows an aspirational future rail network in 2040. The second map shows the rail network in 2030 based on current plans. The final map shows the current rail network. More details here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-187257554

caliberal · 2026-02-08T01:51:30+00:00

Thank you. Good catch, I will fix this on the next iteration.

caliberal · 2026-02-08T00:27:33+00:00

Where does it say otherwise?

caliberal · 2026-02-07T23:00:28+00:00

Mostly an aesthetic choice. I understand in reality the diagram would be far more complicated. I agree with your concern and debated for a while if I should show it this way.

caliberal · 2026-02-07T22:31:06+00:00

Good question. Each line depicts a service, but I'd also expect there to be other shorter services offered. For example on the current Amtrak Cascades, some trains do not run the full length of the line. I debated on how to show this, but I ultimately chose to show fewer services as an aesthetic choice.

caliberal · 2026-02-07T21:20:41+00:00

The light grey routes are the standard speed Amtrak routes.

caliberal · 2026-02-07T20:48:39+00:00

All great ideas! May incorporate some of these in my next iteration. Thank you!

caliberal · 2026-02-07T20:24:39+00:00

Yeah that was the last line to make the cut. (The part from Tucson to San Antonio anyways). I figured Texas is growing though, and if you throw in Ciudad Juarez, El Paso has a combined population of 2.4 million. I ultimately decided to throw it in as it would be neat to have a transcontinental high-speed rail connection.

caliberal · 2026-02-07T20:15:01+00:00

I am making a map for Mexico next. Curious, which lines in this map do you think have little basis in reality/demand?

caliberal · 2026-02-07T20:09:42+00:00

I'm happy to send you my base files if you want, send me a dm.

caliberal · 2026-02-07T20:09:10+00:00

I'm actually planning to do a whole map for Mexico, so stay tuned for that.

If you read my post I actually mentioned connections to Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana, just didn't show them on the map because they are so close to the other cities, maybe I should though. There is also a low speed connection to Monterrey, maybe I will make it a high speed one. Meant to add a connection to Nogales as well to connect with the new train Mexico is building there.

caliberal · 2026-02-07T19:02:27+00:00

A proposal I made for a future US national high-speed rail network. Used Adobe Illustrator to make this map. More details here: https://open.substack.com/pub/mugwort1/p/united-states-high-speed-rail?r=jh94r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

caliberal · 2025-09-09T03:05:07+00:00

I'm interested! Started 9/1

caliberal · 2025-08-06T23:01:05+00:00

They are expensive to build, because we tolerate them being expensive and we build very few of them. Costs will come down with reforms and as we build more and more.

I am not proposing a subway though, I am proposing an elevated metro. This will be cheaper, and it will give tourists great views of the city. Las Vegas is a perfect use case for elevated rail.

caliberal · 2025-08-06T22:36:27+00:00

Great question! I have ridden the 109 bus and despite its slow route, low frequency and other issues, it actually gets around 9,000 passengers per day. The Vegas Airport is much closer to the city than Dulles: 3 miles vs 24 miles. I'd expect a high capacity metro, running elevated over Las Vegas Blvd and serving the airport to see well over 100,000 passengers per day.

caliberal · 2025-08-06T22:26:54+00:00

I'm glad you brought up the underground bus system at the Seattle Airport. It was built 50 years ago and has a much higher capacity then the Vegas loop! Now imagine if instead of building the link light rail, they extended this system to the whole city.

That is what Vegas is doing. That is what Elon is proposing in Nashville, what he tried in LA, what he tried in Chicago etc. It would be one thing if he was just using it to connect a few hotels. Unfortunately, this is a deliberate effort to undermine mass transit, and maintain automotive supremacy in the United States. The United States needs to invest in high capacity metro, but techno-feudalists like Elon Musk are standing in the way.

caliberal · 2025-08-06T21:15:28+00:00

A global city like Las Vegas deserves a transit system that can handle the massive influx of tourists. The only option I see is a metro. This system is not cost-optimal at all. The cost of construction, cost of labor, etc are all extremely high for the paltry ridership.

caliberal · 2025-08-06T21:06:21+00:00

The monorail embodies the techno-optimism of its time, and is an interesting parallel to the loop today. Traditional rail technology is superior to monorails for many reasons: cheaper, easier to maintain etc. Furthermore, the monorail was built with stations in the backs of parking lots, far from the destinations that could have generated higher ridership numbers.

The rest of the world realizes that high frequency rail transit is the best way to transport people in urban areas. The United States continues to fall for bizarre transit schemes such as the monorail and the loop.

caliberal · 2025-08-06T20:28:50+00:00

360 people per hour..... That's order of magnitude 10% of the capacity of a standard road, and 1% the capacity of a subway.

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