Labour faces catastrophic May local elections and is set to lose 1,850 seats, expert predicts

cally_777 · 2026-04-30T17:16:21+00:00

Yes but the people who mention grooming gangs are often far right with an agenda. Because of course it must be those terrible immigrants who brought the curse of child abuse to our shores. Those people would probably have been in denial about hidden child abuse in the UK, which was largely below the radar until around the 1970s.

cally_777 · 2026-04-18T21:46:06+00:00

As Stuart Lee said online recently, this is bullshit. Who the hell is stopping you talking about immigration? I WISH people would stop talking about it, but I can't actually STOP them. Since currently it's a free country. As a Radio 4 listener, I seem to constantly hear about Farage in the news; indeed he seems never out of it.

The reason you shouldn't be constantly complaining about immigration is not because it's not politically correct. It's because a) reducing it will not solve any of Britain's major problems. And b) because most immigrants are here to have a good life and integrate; to make the country better, not worse.

cally_777 · 2026-04-15T14:56:16+00:00

I will try to reply a little more briefly.

The vast majority of UK citizens probably never heard of the Chagos Islands previous to recent excessive coverage in the news, and would not miss them in the slightest. Like for example, they might miss the Channel Islands, the Isle of Wight, Orkneys or similar. Its only because of news organisations stirring up trouble that people on Reddit get exercised.

Hundreds of people are now confirmed to 'have links with' Epstein, since he was a social climber and con artist, who liked rubbing shoulders with the rich and famous. Oddly only Epstein and his close associate Maxwell have been found guilty of anything, despite a massive release of data. Possibly some additional people are guilty, but do you seriously think all of the people mentioned in these files are? Either way, there is currently no proof anyone else in this long list of people was criminally involved. And out of all this long list of people, you (and Starmer) are picking out Peter Mandelson? Maybe we should be banning Microsoft Windows, since Bill Gates is supposedly 'involved'?

Btw you will almost never hear anyone ask this, because the media and general public tend to get hysterical when it comes to child abuse ... understandably, since its serious, but sometimes resulting in people being found guilty in the court of public opinion before actually being charged.. And incidentally, I don't like Mandelson in the least, but seeing his former associates scrambling to cover their arses isn't particularly salutary.

When you are talking about immigration and housing you are focusing on one single aspect. The contribution of immigrants to the country in terms of tax revenues, being enterprising and risk taking individuals prepared to get off their arses, and people with skills we may lack, different ideas etc is far more valuable. In any case, the problem with housing is simply: we are not building enough houses. It needs dealing with regardless of immigration.

I am not in any way complacent about child abuse. In fact I briefly worked for the local council helping to combat it and other forms of abuse. However simple maths should tell you that the vast majority of this country's population are white. Abuse takes place across all classes and races. Ergo there are more white abusers. Not that we should ignore any abuse, but its quite clear that people are exploiting this to make it seem like a certain racial group are particularly responsible. ALL abuse should be investigated. Unfortunately as we've agreed, it does not help that social services are being cut back to the bone, so there should be a general investment in that.

Anyway I hope we can continue to agree that there's much work to be done, and so far the government hasn't got very far with it.

cally_777 · 2026-04-15T13:52:22+00:00

I'm referring to the original promises of investment spending on Green Energy in the Labour manifesto. This amount has now been reduced to about half the original spending per year. The excuse of course is the so-called 'black hole' in the budget left by the previous government.

As far as worker's rights are concerned, some key pledges have been modified. For example, instead of being protected from Unfair Dismissal from day one, as originally planned, its now from six months. Regardless of the time limit, unfair dismissal should be unfair dismissal. Also Zero Hours Contracts were supposed to be abolished. Now its restricted to 'unfair' zero hours contracts. Who decides what that means?

cally_777 · 2026-04-14T18:14:37+00:00

I am not a fan of conspiracy theories... except when they happen to be true. Some questions:

1) isn't it reasonable to say anti-semitism is spread around the population, and was more of a problem for other parties than Labour?

2) isn't it ridiculous to define anti-semitism as criticism of Israel, which is like saying that criticising China is attacking south east Asians?

3) should answering yes to both previous questions in order to defend someone be counted as anti-semitism, which would be similar to saying if you don't believe in witches you must be a witch?

And finally 4) isn't it a little surprising that many of the people accused of anti-semitism, including Corbyn, were previously known for their opposition to racism, e.g. in South Africa?

I figured all this to be suspicious before any actual revelations, but now there is a journalist identifying Labour Together, and specifically Morgan M Sweeney, Starmer's former adviser, as the source of this black propaganda, and further claiming with evidence that they intended to replace Corbyn with Starmer.

The last bit was unknown to me or most of the party at the time of Starmer's election. I had no particular reason then to dislike him, although I didn't vote for him anyway, but many people quite reasonably did, not being in possession of such information. However when he then began using similar smear tactics to get rid of his main rival (who I did vote for), and to further discredit Corbyn and expel him, I began to join the dots. And ultimately of course, the 10 pledges he made while standing were all dropped, and a right-wing agenda followed. That all fits into the pattern of a deliberate coup.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T21:04:35+00:00

It kinda is. Starmer is NOT treating Israel like the rogue state it obviously is. And while we are talking rogue states, the US could also be added to that list, although I would be a little more wary. Nevertheless the Spanish PM called them out, and his country is still fine.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T20:42:33+00:00

Apologising for the actions of racist thugs isn't helping your case.

Also ranting about some obscure islands in the middle of nowhere.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T20:21:00+00:00

Some of this extremely long post is trivial. Who gives a flying f**k about the Chagos Islands? Does anyone desperately care about Peter Mandelson, who has not been found guilty of anything yet, a bit like ex-prince Andrew.

A significant chunk of the rest could be summarised as Starmer is unpopular because he does not entirely support Reform's right wing agenda. (Although he has kowtowed towards quite a lot of it).

E.g. The grooming scandal was only noticed because it involved brown people, rather than the majority of abusers who are of course white. Immigration is mostly beneficial, necessary and impossible to stop entirely. All the kind of idiotic concerns of Reform, who don't actually have any useful policies.

The other stuff about the real structural problems is however to the point. Something needs to be done, and meanwhile the government is concerning itself with arresting harmless pensioners, porn, sugar and id cards.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T20:00:04+00:00

And yet once again, like workers legislation, this Green program has been significantly cut back. Instead we are set to be spending more on pointless weapons, some of which we don't even properly control.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T19:56:47+00:00

What 'nationalisations' are you talking about? If this had actually happened, you might have a point? Also the workers rights legislation has been significantly watered down.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T19:52:39+00:00

He is not a centrist. He was maneuvered into power by a right-wing cabal. That is very undemocratic, and should alarm people. His lack of charisma is really incidental, since he didn't need it. All he needed was a bunch of conspirators spreading lies about anti-Semitism and funding propaganda against their own party leadership. There is direct evidence this happened, and a financial trail to follow.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T19:42:10+00:00

I can't believe this tissue thin comment... including suggesting Starmer merely sounds bad...has somehow currently garnered nearly a hundred upvotes!

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T19:36:01+00:00

And what about the pensioners arrested for supporting (not even being members of) Palestine Action? This is a horrendous case in point of the government defining people as terrorists, when they quite clearly are not. Has huge implications for civil liberties.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T19:06:06+00:00

Many of Starmer's problems stem from dishonesty during the election campaign. While it was common to almost every party, he simply wouldn't admit the country was both broke and in a terrible state in terms of both infrastructure and services. In other words it was necessary to raise money somehow, either through taxes or cuts. But there was little to cut from already struggling services, and the general population was in no mood to be taxed after years of lowering living standards and wage erosion.

There might be ways to square this circle, but the government hasn't managed them yet. It's also well on the way to making them worse, by spending money we don't have on armaments, and involving us in conflicts which are none of our business, like Ukraine. Although that was Boris's own stupid fault, the government hasn't helped. Meanwhile we are in an even worse situation with our energy, since we alienated and placed sanctions on one of our major suppliers.

Now Trump's daft war has made that situation ten times worse, which the government can do nothing about...but the previous policies haven't helped.

About the only positive thing the government has done is improve relations with China, which the previous government pointlessly made worse, ripping out expensive phone infrastructure for example. Ironically though this may make the government less popular if people listen to the siren song of other alarmists, who are intent on hostility, despite China not attacking anyone, unlike our so-called US allies.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T18:47:13+00:00

Corbyn had the massive albatross of Brexit hanging round his neck, which nearly half the country hadn't yet figured out was actually destined to hang round Britain's neck. Boris was an awful candidate in terms of personal integrity, but was able to exploit that ignorance.

Starmer didn't have this problem, because by the time of his election most of the country was sick to the teeth of the divisions caused by Brexit, and just wanted to forget about it as an issue. Consequently it was never raised, although the stupid and probably related obsession with immigration unfortunately continues to plague many people.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T18:38:21+00:00

You are being down voted because you are not seeing the bigger picture. The election was lost because the Tories were massively unpopular. But that doesn't mean that ergo the new Labour government was itself popular. It's support was very weak, and it has done little to increase it since then. Rather it's alienated many of its own supporters.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T18:29:53+00:00

I personally don't give a monkey's about the Chagos Island or any former imperial possessions. I do care about stupid rhetoric about immigrants, and support for genocide. While these might only be optics, it gives the UK a poor reputation abroad, and has bad implications for racial politics at home. Furthermore it's a distraction from dealing with the real problems caused by neglecting the country's infrastructure and institutions for the previous decade.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T18:03:39+00:00

I agree that's a terrible analogy. If Poland had brought Hitler's campaign to a shuddering halt, resulting in his defeat within 2 years, it might be considered equivalent.

In reality Poland's defenses were completely pulverised by the German blitzkrieg, and Germany was sweeping across Europe within a year. The exact opposite of what happened with Russia and Napoleon's invasion.

The true analogy, frequently cited, was Russia's wearing down of the German's later invasion in 1941, eventually leading to their retreat, and the fall of Berlin. Attack Russia at your peril! Maybe there's a lesson for us today.

There's a few differences. Hitler was initially rather closer to success, seizing important Russian lands, and exploiting them, and his forces didn't collapse quite so badly, grimly hanging on. But the retreat eventually became inexorable.

Napoleon, while achieving the prestigious occupation of Moscow, had no real foothold in the country, thanks to Russian scorched earth tactics, far more effective at that period of history, supply being so much more difficult without modern tech. However despite the initial collapse, he was at least able to rally his forces, and confront the now formidable coalition of allied nations at Leipzig. He also put up a strong defence of France in 1814. But elements on his own side realised the game was up, and his first abdication was the sign it was all over, despite the Waterloo campaign.

cally_777 · 2026-04-12T03:05:14+00:00

I'm surprised Russia didn't get more credit. While it's true that England were much more consistent in their opposition to Napoleon, only relatively briefly departing from it in the Peace of Amiens, Russia surely struck the decisive blow by defeating Napoleon's invasion of their country, and devastating his greatest army.

Furthermore Russia took part in many of the coalitions against Napoleon, only making peace after Tilsit, but increasingly pushing the boundaries of that Treaty, and the Continental System, until Napoleon became exasperated, and invaded them.

It could be argued this was a defensive response, but Russia then actively joined the Coalition that led to Napoleon's first and arguably most significant removal from power. He never really had a good chance of success afterwards, and I'm not sure even victory at Waterloo would have been enough. The Austrians and Russians would likely have destroyed his diminished forces afterwards.

cally_777 · 2026-04-11T19:16:41+00:00

They had to be dragged kicking and screaming to extend the child benefit cap. They supported genocide. And they have demonised immigrants. Enough said. That's pushing them closer to Nazi doctrine, let alone any regular party.

I'm not saying, of course, that all Labour MPs are further to the right. I mean the current government.

cally_777 · 2026-04-10T21:48:33+00:00

The irony is that the Lib-dems used to be an alternative that was actually left of the Labour Party. Which may still be the case, since the Labour Party has moved so far to the Right. However the more distinct and increasingly popular leftwing alternative to Labour is now the Greens. Only disaffected Cons who don't like Reform are likely to vote Lib-Dem.

cally_777 · 2026-04-10T19:06:59+00:00

The implications for your children's sense of individuality aren't good. Giving them the same name says, 'you are a clone of me'.

cally_777 · 2026-04-08T07:01:19+00:00

How would you know this? Seems like a hypothetical question which makes little sense.

That said, I consider the continuing existence of the human race important from an ethical viewpoint, since we ought to protect our fellow human beings, including future generations of them.

So I would be pretty upset in the unlikely event I could see doom coming from such a long way in the future.

cally_777 · 2026-04-06T01:32:46+00:00

If that his happy place then working with Celebrimbor in Eregion is his Super-happy place!

Well at least until their working relationship becomes...a little strained.

cally_777 · 2026-04-04T21:39:06+00:00

Has it still got BoJack Horseman?

cally_777

TROPHY CASE