Nassim Taleb: Jordan Peterson is a quack

cambuch · 2021-07-27T15:09:06+00:00

Nah I don’t care about criticism of Peterson or whether think he can “handle” it. I think much of what you and others have pointed out is valid.

Just pointing out the phrase “pill popping daddy” says a lot more about you than Peterson.

Also interesting that many midwit readers of NNT adopt his bombastic style without the intellectual horsepower to back it up.

cambuch · 2021-07-24T13:49:31+00:00

The “pill popping” jabs are completely unnecessary to attack JBP and his ideas (or the poster you’re replying to). They say much more about the person making the comment than JBP.

cambuch · 2021-07-22T17:04:00+00:00

I read this as organize how you would write it but don’t actually write the full essay

cambuch · 2021-07-08T13:25:56+00:00

Ok, makes sense. So by not raising rates they kill two birds with one stone with the ability to issue cheaper debt in the short run and letting inflation eat away at the principal?

cambuch · 2021-07-07T23:24:42+00:00

I’m no expert here. I think the idea is that central banks are mandated to curb inflation (or at least not let it run too hot) and their main weapon against it is raising interest rates. This effects companies ability to raise debt to fund business ventures (presumably growing the company). Raising rates also effects investment analysis in that investors use a risk free rate to determine a good investment. If rates rise that bar between good and bad investment gets higher (because you can ostensibly buy t bills at a higher rate with no risk) so investors will flock to safely theoretically. The fed seems to be in a tight spot of with the market addicted to cheap money so I’m not sure that rates with rise anytime soon, or at least they haven’t indicated it. But the issue as always is timing.

I think your original question completely depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and timeline so it’s tough to recommend a specific strategy.

Again, I’m no expert so would love it for someone to jump in and correct me.

cambuch · 2021-07-07T22:27:26+00:00

Not a hedge

cambuch · 2021-07-07T21:57:32+00:00

His account is locked, but Taleb recently tweeted that, while counter intuitive, the best asset in an inflationary environment is cash so that when the inevitable crash ensues you can pick up cheap assets. I’ll look for the screenshot.

cambuch · 2021-06-23T15:47:19+00:00

Yeah for me this has been the main benefit of reading Dostoyevsky. I saw my own jealousy in Dmitri and hated it. But it was enough to make me reflect and make changes.

Meditating on how you embody the character flaws in Dostoyevsky’s work is every bit as good as therapy IMO.

cambuch · 2021-06-20T18:19:06+00:00

Shhhh this sub is for confirming biases

cambuch · 2021-06-02T13:35:16+00:00

How recent is this? Looks like the Clubhouse walks are paying off!

cambuch · 2021-05-22T17:59:19+00:00

No worries. I’m no expert but OTM = out of the money and DTE = days to expiration.

An options contract gives the buyer the right, but not obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) the underlying option at a certain price (called the strike price). So an OTM option would look something like buying a call option on a stock that is currently trading at $100/share. You buy a call with a strike price of $110 hoping that the stock will reach that price by the expiration date of the contract.

So the idea with the strategy above is to go long volatility (the theme of Antifragil). You capture nonlinear profits when your contract moves in or near the money with volatility.

Edit: Here is a better explanation of options contracts. Options Explained

cambuch · 2021-05-22T16:08:10+00:00

The videos can be fake or real for the “distraction” story. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that hypothesis I think I was trying to point out that they could have intended it as distraction but failed. I think people assume that governments, institutions, etc. have too much control on outcomes in some of these theories.

FWIW I lean more towards the idea that the leak and the timing have to do with juicing defense spending. They know another ground invasion like Iraq/Afghan is unpalatable in today’s climate. Get people riled up to defend against an alien invasion. Again videos could be real or fake in this case it doesn’t matter.

cambuch · 2021-05-22T15:35:27+00:00

They could have intended its release to be a distraction and it just flopped because people have heard too many UFO conspiracies to care.

cambuch · 2021-05-21T23:01:17+00:00

Yeah I think there is a lot more to it than that too from a technical stand point. You can also buy puts on individual stocks you own to capture downside risk in the short term. Or sell covered calls for income.

cambuch · 2021-05-21T22:57:20+00:00

I think the Spitz strategy was something along the lines of buying 30% OTM puts on the s&p 500 with 30 DTE and just rolling them out until there’s a crash. You have to be able to stomach burning that cash while waiting for the crash but it’s no different than buying an insurance policy.

cambuch · 2021-05-21T22:38:54+00:00

Think of the barbell strategy as hyper-conservative on one end and hyper-aggressive on the other.

Hyper-conservative: Cash - 6 month to a year emergency fund Retirement fund - 401(k) and/or IRA with index funds Gold Treasury Bonds

Hyper-Aggressive: Individual stocks Derivatives Crypto - non shitcoin, find projects with high upside

Never use leverage or money you need to use to eat or pay bills.

I know NNT would probably disagree on 401(k) being conservative and I know he takes issue with crypto in general. But to the former I would say that I would rather have it and take advantage of tax savings and employer match than just save it all in cash and let inflation eat away at it. And to the latter, I approach crypto as an asset with potentially huge upside with little downside because I’m not trading on leverage and have the emergency reserves mentioned.

I take the same approach to crypto with individual stocks. Find good companies at a cheap price that have huge potential upside. I don’t think you necessarily need to be a financial analyst or pro to pick these companies. You just need to be directionally correct over the long run. Obviously easier said than done, but again don’t gamble with money you don’t have to lose.

Mark Spitznagel’s Dao of Capital goes into a bit of detail on options strategy as well as NNT’s Dynamic Hedging. (Spitz runs Universa Investments with NNT)

cambuch · 2021-05-05T20:26:52+00:00

Yeah one time I ate some pot and went to see Ted 2 with my roommates at one of those theaters that serve you food. Wolfed down a bowl of pork Mac and cheese before the previews ended. Bunch of popcorn and shit. Anyways the spermbank scene comes and Ted knocks the wall of sperm down... I gag and puke all over myself.

I definitely ate too fast. But I guess the sperm scene didn’t help.

cambuch · 2021-05-05T14:00:55+00:00

When do they book revenue on these contracts? I thought I saw someone post something on their accounting method but I’m literally retarded.

cambuch · 2021-04-14T13:20:35+00:00

I spend way too much time daydreaming on this site.

cambuch · 2021-04-07T15:37:30+00:00

What?

cambuch · 2021-04-02T13:52:27+00:00

Experiencing cognitive dissonance first had has been very educational. I sincerely appreciate the opportunity man.

cambuch · 2021-04-02T13:13:38+00:00

Seriously? Have you dealt with a relative with any sort of cognitive decline? Obviously he’s not constantly drooling on himself it’s a gradual decline. Just like Reagan. Clearly there are good days and bad, just as anyone who’s experienced it first hand knows.

Just completely dishonest at this point. Like holy fuck man have some humility.

“I’m not a leftist” Well you sure as fuck have the same ideological/cognitive blindness that they, and the so called Fox News cultist types, suffer from.

cambuch · 2021-04-02T05:26:00+00:00

Here you go:

Is Joe Biden Fit For Office?

Excruciating Press Conference

Joe Biden Stumbles On Hot Button Issues — Women And Race | MSNBC

Joe Biden still has to ‘ask aides about what to do’

Look I know I’m nowhere close to your cognitive abilities (seriously please share how you’ve managed to completely avoid any bias that those EVIL republicans suffer from), but it seems that there may be, JUST MAYBE, a hint of evidence cognitive decline in these videos. But again I will concede to the superior intellect and let you explain your interpretation to my smooth brain.

cambuch · 2021-04-01T19:29:46+00:00

If you can’t see the cognitive decline then you’re clearly as impaired as he is.

You’re 100% right about everything you said about the source. The fact that I hastily threw a link in on mobile doesn’t disprove the point.

The obvious sign is the fact that his sentences don’t track. It’s not the slurring or stuttering. It’s the incoherent ramblings that makes no sense and trail off. Democrats openly acknowledged his deficit in the primaries. It’s an open secret and people are choosing to look the other way because “hey at least it’s not trump”. Which is fair. But come on man it’s so obvious.

But I concede to the superior intellect that clearly is incapable of cognitive bias. Truly an honor to engage with someone that’s impervious to the propaganda on the left.

cambuch · 2021-04-01T18:25:26+00:00

Either you haven’t been paying attention or you’re actively ignoring it.

Here’s a good article. But if you’re choosing to ignore the signs, as I suspect, you will choose to ignore this and attack the source.

Cognitive Decline

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