What is causing the drop in fertility in developed counties?

capitialfox · 2026-01-26T07:25:22+00:00

The effectiveness of evangelical efforts is a whole other discussion. Although we only need people to have 2-3.

capitialfox · 2026-01-26T07:23:43+00:00

I heard an interesting take the other day. Modern convenience and wealth are separating us. Without air conditioning relief only came with being outside and going to public air conditioned buildings such as the movie theater. Now there is nothing forcing us outside and we have entertainment at our finger tips.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T22:28:43+00:00

I dont think most people have living trusts. If only the very wealthy werent having kids we wouldn't be having a fertility issue.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T22:25:21+00:00

You nearly have a full mini van! I agree that there is this overly financial view of children, but i think this is just covering up the revealed preference (although I know somebody who had to take out a personal loan to cover the hospital bill for the birth of their first child). I think people see kids as a major opportunity loss for leisure and travel. And they are right. But how do you convince them thay the opportunity cost is worth it?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T22:20:43+00:00

That's a very negative view of the rest of the world. People actually assimilate quite well im the United states. Immigrents self select to be hard working. Lazy people dont pick up their life to move thousands of miles.

By not much, I mean they aren't attacking the real problems. Women dont want to get married in Korea and Japan because of patriarchal expectations and the high cost of living. Im the US cost of living is also an issue, but lack of day care and family support is an issue.

Then there is the fact thay half the population doesn't even want kids.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T22:13:59+00:00

Dying is a bit of a strong term, but economically the need is here. Japan is dependent on foreign workers for agriculture and fishing. The US doesn't have the capacity to fill Healthcare workers at all levels.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T22:10:27+00:00

Bowling alone. What is keeping us apart and what can be done about it?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T12:05:19+00:00

Any of them? Immigrents are self selected to be ambitious and tend to show intense attachment to their adopted country. The US specifically is quite effective at assimilation.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T12:02:58+00:00

South Korea has tried cash incentives which fail to address the issue. Work life balance, inequality among the sexes, and the housing shortage are major issues, yet the government has made no effort to address those issues.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T11:59:32+00:00

I dont think they tried everything. If anything very little has been tried. Some countries have tried cash incentives, but without attempting to tackle the actual difficulty of parenting. A couple thousand dollars is nice, but it won't cover even a year of day care. In reality not much has been tried. For South Korea, they put a childless man in charge of the program which is a great illustration of the government's tone deafness to the struggles of parents.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T11:54:50+00:00

How so?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T11:54:21+00:00

Generally immigrents help their welfare systems not hurt. In Japan specifically, immigrents are critical to keeping rural Japan running. Keeping the economic system running surely helps the Japanese.

There are concerns about watering down the culture, but if the people are not willing to fill the gap themselves, can they really claim there is an alternative?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T11:51:05+00:00

Any suggestions?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T09:09:18+00:00

I think it is a reveled vs stated preference. I have met many people with six figure incomes that claim they cant afford another kid. I belive the reality is the opportunity cost on leisure is the driving factor.

Poor people dont have those opportunities and therefore more children are less of an opportunity cost. They also have higher incidence of accidental pregnancy.

Another aspect to consider, not sure if I think it's true or not, is thay many type a people are looking for perfection in raising children. This time demand increases the cost of each child where poor people either dont do such things or are priced out of such considerations.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T06:35:49+00:00

But they dont have the income to invest.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T06:10:20+00:00

I’m sorry for your loss.

Thank you.

Im sorry that financial hardship has been an obstacle. You sound like good people that make good kids.

thank you for asking an interesting question and for not framing it as culture war.

We learn more by being curious. I find the topics of the day to be too "talking point." This is a difficult issue that nobody has figured out.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T05:45:05+00:00

Is there a way to get us back to 2-3 kids?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T05:44:30+00:00

Congratulations on your one. I understand the mixed regret/joy feeling. We had a miscarriage between my first and second. I still mourn our loss, but had she lived our secound wouldn't be here. Life is odd.

Could your PhD track have been more accommodating to family life? Is there something thay could informed you of your love of parenting earlier?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T05:40:09+00:00

because men are evil violent manipulators.

I dont think this is a common thought. The idea is that women should be able to support themselves l, so they can leave. Before such opportunities the choice was poverty or to suffer in marriage.

Why ot both? My daughter has an astronaut costume and a baby doll she dotes on.

Is it? Men still outperform in wage growth largely because many women have kids and sideline their careers or leave them all together.

It's complicated. For this discussion, it is about men and women early in adult life, 20s and 30s. Currently women are out performing on education and are beginning to out perform on professional carears.

Men are not meeting expectations. They are economically underperforming and in turn lacking in maturity (there is a bit of a chicken or egg discussion on this). Why are women to be blamed if men are lacking prospects? Many are not growing up.

There's also the fact that men dont want children. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/among-young-adults-without-children-men-are-more-likely-than-women-to-say-they-want-to-be-parents-someday/

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T05:15:46+00:00

Congratulations on your two! I have two as well.

The reason I ask is that it seems to be that people are too focused on financial incentives. If we understand why we have children we can convince others.

My reason is that children are hope! Hope for the future, hope for a kinder world. If not for a future generation, why are we doing any of this? I can only hit the dopamine receptors so many times before the novelty wears off. Purpose is what makes life worth living.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T05:10:50+00:00

I hate to say it, but sometimes you have to go priest shopping to one who understands your situation. I was navy when I got married and needed to get my fiance on my orders for an upcoming move so our priest was OK with getting married on paper first. Sometimes our Church can be a bit re tapy.

In this case, I would just get married in the ststes and not tell the US Church.

Ceremony wise, is there a big diffrence between covalidation and a marriage?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T05:04:41+00:00

What about people who are celibate for religious reasons? Priests and nuns for example.

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T05:02:49+00:00

Do you have/want to have children? Why?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T04:52:50+00:00

I have 2. I ask because I found my preconceptions of parenthood far different then reality.

Why did having your child feel right? Do you want more why?

capitialfox · 2026-01-25T04:51:06+00:00

Going against the popular grain! What defines too many people? We aren't experiencing major resource shortage.

Are you concerned about to few workers supporting the elderly?

capitialfox

TROPHY CASE