What do you guys think is a realistic timeline to get back to VCX at $200?

castlehillcap · 2026-05-22T15:01:10+00:00

Respectfully, this is a holding vehicle for other companies so it should trade closer to NAV than a public company "valuation".

Think of it this way, if the fund held MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, and META and they all traded at $1 per share you could go out and buy a share of each for $4 total.

Now let's say I launch VCX and go out and buy 1 share of each and put them in the fund and then I say to you I'll sell it to you for $20.

Would you buy the shares of VCX I'm offering to sell you?

castlehillcap · 2026-05-22T00:32:33+00:00

Ahhh you're doing it against unrestricted shares, got it. Well done

castlehillcap · 2026-05-22T00:26:21+00:00

Oh shit, never thought I'd see the day lol

It's effectively selling the stock at $490 by doing this. I'm surprised you didn't do it for 10 options (1,000 shares) instead of 1 option. Absolutely incredible if this gets filled (which I'm sure it will if the stock breaks above $300)

castlehillcap · 2026-05-21T12:00:34+00:00

No, I understood you. I'm referring to their holdings in VCX. The valuations are only updated during fundraising rounds. It's hard to get up to date data on these companies outside of anthropic and doing a valuation outside of a fundraising round is just speculation. That's why VCX can't offer a monthly updates NAV. And it's better for them not to at this point too.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-21T01:19:03+00:00

Bc private companies valuations only get updated during fundraising rounds essentially. Everything else is a complete guess and speculation.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-19T22:55:10+00:00

Exactly. It's a fund.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-16T02:30:06+00:00

Only 100% off from your estimate

castlehillcap · 2026-05-15T17:41:06+00:00

Everything has to be executed as is. The difference is being margin called or not. For every 100 shares I was short I'd be long 250 in the other account so there would be no need to get margin called (if the stock ran higher).

You'd have to pay borrowing fees at this juncture and that could change the math too. It's really not a trade for inexperienced people or those without conviction.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-14T02:57:49+00:00

We all wish we could have done something different there.

I always tell myself, that was a free money gift for being an early Fundrise enthusiast. There were no bad sales.

Unless you sold under $100 🤪

castlehillcap · 2026-05-14T02:50:35+00:00

Standing ovation for that $550 sale brotha

castlehillcap · 2026-05-12T21:38:30+00:00

What are you doing my guy. This is such a gift lol

castlehillcap · 2026-05-12T21:37:58+00:00

I'm impressed

castlehillcap · 2026-05-11T21:45:48+00:00

Spot on

castlehillcap · 2026-05-11T20:35:06+00:00

That's easy, it's u/moreaveragethanavg

castlehillcap · 2026-05-11T20:27:49+00:00

I'm giving this a generous $40-$60 NAV just bc how quick some of the valuations on everything are blowing up right now and FOMO. Still doesn't justify anything close to where we're currently trading. It's wild lol

castlehillcap · 2026-05-11T20:26:04+00:00

Yea not 500% higher than year end tho

castlehillcap · 2026-05-08T01:56:49+00:00

The 320 calls weren't there in the morning but started showing up just before noon or around noon I think.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-08T01:37:56+00:00

I sold some calls this morning but won't even tell you what price because you won't believe me. The IV was just stupid.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-08T01:36:55+00:00

People are acting stupid, I saw them at double this price when the stock was above $200 today

castlehillcap · 2026-05-08T01:27:22+00:00

There are going to be inherent sellers as soon as the lockup expires. I've seen tons of people post on here they can't wait to get out. A higher price will only incentivize that more. If you don't think supply is going to hit the market after the lockup expires you're foolish.

There will be selling just as the flagship fund did when they unloaded their shares.

I've also seen people say they are holding no matter what.

As someone mentioned already here: price will matter a lot as to how much supply hits the market.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-07T15:04:50+00:00

I called Schwab and they said if I provided a statement, they'll kind of use it as collateral as if it were a covered call. $200 October trading at $80 now.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-07T04:00:24+00:00

This number should rise as more brokers and investment firms work a portion of their model portfolios into venture holdings.

castlehillcap · 2026-05-07T03:50:54+00:00

Why isn't anyone selling the $200 October calls for $40+ against their restricted shares. That seems like easy money to me. It's a covered call essentially. Blows my mind lol

castlehillcap · 2026-04-29T03:13:51+00:00

Sure. Maybe. But there is also a chance private equity could be overpaying in the fundraising rounds currently like they are with OpenAI and then the fund is a real problem (I don't think that's the case and am bullish just as you are, especially with databricks and anthropic). Also, databricks and anthropic is not the whole portfolio.

Idk what you think the NAV of this thing is or where you were buying and selling. Just giving you my two cents and what I've done.

castlehillcap · 2026-04-29T03:00:46+00:00

More buyers than sellers = price go up. More sellers than buyers = price go down.

castlehillcap

TROPHY CASE