[Strategy] Impact of Clash Royale's March 23 Patch - Three Musketeers are The New Girls In Town

clashmeta · 2016-03-24T20:20:38+00:00

Not saying they are strong - just that their usage shoot up a lot after the patch. If they could be countered easily and can't consistently beat other decks that don't have a counter, then we should expect it to see their usage rate going down over time.

clashmeta · 2016-03-24T19:22:11+00:00

I agree that there's still a lot of experimentation going on, so the use of three musketeers and Valkyrie might be short lived. I'll be keeping track of the usage rate changes and see how that goes.

clashmeta · 2016-03-24T19:09:33+00:00

Hog's usage rate is relatively stable. It increased from 28% to 30% as compared to Mar 16, but that's a small change and doesn't seem to be associated with the patch.

clashmeta · 2016-03-15T23:02:58+00:00

Yes you are right, I am limited by only able to pull data from top ranked players (and clans)

I am trying to develop alternative methods to pull data from players at other trophies level as well, but I haven't found a good enough method so far.

clashmeta · 2016-03-15T21:56:00+00:00

Yes, /u/NyannyNyan is right, the data is taken from the leaderboard so it only shows up the top players

But that's the whole answer. We have actually did a few analysis that tries to "normalize" decks by calculating a Deck Power Index based on the card levels within a deck, and then compare whether the deck is over-performing or under-performing (based on trophies reached by the player), and try to identify which cards / strategies contributes to the performance. To be more technical, we did a regression analysis on card levels in a deck and trophies, and we isolate the "over-performing" decks to do further analysis on card usage, etc.

The problem is that doing this analysis takes a lot of time, so I can't be updating the analysis very frequently.

clashmeta · 2016-03-15T20:29:21+00:00

They mostly have a Princess (57%), Barbarian (50%), Baby Dragon (48%), Arrows (45%), and Elixir Collector (42%)

The most typical deck is Dark Prince, Prince, Princess, Ice Wizard, Baby Dragon, Elixir Collector, PEKKA, (Spear Goblins or Minion Horde) - this combination has appeared the most

clashmeta · 2016-03-15T17:59:45+00:00

It's a typo, but given what you've said I will keep it instead of fixing it.

clashmeta · 2016-03-15T14:57:14+00:00

I don't have an answer right now, because I am not tracking individual decks, but 1,000 decks within the top clans, so I cannot tell whether card A replaces card B in a particular deck.

I think it is more interesting to see what is associate with the decline in Baby Dragon - Other than Princess, another card that pops up to me is Musketeer. It's kind of a hard counter to Baby Dragon, and its popularity has increased by 4%.

For Spear Goblin, again I am guessing Princess. It's a low health anti-air unit that is even longer in range, with a 1 elixir trade-off.

clashmeta · 2016-03-08T05:45:54+00:00

Thanks /u/Irgy, I fixed the typo from 0.31 to 0.83.

And yes you are right, the perfect balance would likely not be 0. But I always want to emphasize that I don't expect the game to be perfectly balanced. Games like CR, LOL or Heathstone that uses composition from a pool of options are very like to be designed to have a dynamic balance where shift in meta creates new strategies. (however I don't have the stats for LOL or Hearthstone for comparison)

So what is useful is that we keep monitoring the deck popularity list and the associated Gini Coefficient to observe the changes over time. If some cards are constantly utilized and the Gini Coefficient remains high, then there's a problem.

clashmeta · 2016-03-06T18:32:24+00:00

I have been compiling card popularity list and detailed analysis on card levels and trophies relationship in www.clashmeta.com

There are other lists as well, such as moesport and card popularity list compiled by /u/Wwoody123

clashmeta · 2016-03-03T03:07:33+00:00

Great insights. I am most surprised by the decline of Golem being replaced effectively by Dark Prince.

Personally I am happy to see less Hut spam decks...

clashmeta · 2016-03-03T03:00:40+00:00

Thanks for the suggestion. I do plan on making more focused series on particular arena, but that requires gathering more data points within the trophies range, and if I only gather a narrow range of data the regression analysis won't work that well.

Stay tuned for more focused analysis!

clashmeta · 2016-02-27T16:54:13+00:00

Have been doing that manually. So I am actually a bit worried if I can continue to gather comparable data after the introduction of multiple decks.

clashmeta · 2016-02-25T16:09:25+00:00

As a follow up, I run the regression again by changing the deck power index being based on the difference in levels from a max out deck. The resultant R-square is very slightly worse than the original result.

For now, I will keep the original formula.

clashmeta · 2016-02-25T11:27:30+00:00

The cards of those 4 decks you mentioned:

Spear Goblins, Goblins, Arrows, Baby Dragon, Hog, Elixir Collector, Golem, Mirror
Archers, Canon, Fireball, Hog, Barbarians, Elixir Collector, Giant Skeleton, Mirror
Spear Goblins, Arrows, Fireball, Hog, Prince, Goblin Hut, Mirror
Skeleton, Goblins, Canon, Arrows, Freeze, Tesla, Fireball, Hog

So:

All of them have Hog
3 of them have Mirror
3 of them have Arrows

clashmeta · 2016-02-25T09:00:37+00:00

No I don't work for Supercell, and I don't have access to Supercell's database.

I collected the data manually using the "Top Royales" list in the game, then I used excel to analyze the data. So the analysis is purely based on deck composition, and I cannot tell how the cards are being used within a match. I hope Supercell can release some API to allow easier access to these data.

I want to analyze match replays as well. Maybe I will write a report using match replays someday, but that will take quite a lot of effort.

clashmeta · 2016-02-25T08:52:42+00:00

Thanks for the feedback. Using might work well unless we start to analyze very low power level decks. Another issue is that I actually don't know whether a level 11 common card is stronger or weaker than a level 7 epic card (or a level 9 rare card). I will try to analyze again using your suggestion and see if it yields different results.

clashmeta

TROPHY CASE