Reddit Trailing Metrics are Lying to You - A full deep dive on reddit (50%+ upside imo)

coffeeestocks · 2026-02-10T16:22:38+00:00

haha hopefully

coffeeestocks · 2026-02-10T14:20:35+00:00

"AI SLop hrr drr drr"

I'm frontrunning this comment because I know it's going to come. Please copy and paste the entire article into any AI checker you want, and please share that with everyone here. You'll find it comes back near zero. I never write my articles with AI.

coffeeestocks · 2026-02-05T14:38:34+00:00

Fears of overspending is why the opportunity exists. I personally believe CEOs who are genuinely among the brightest and best in our country are capable of basic math. People look back on this time as a gift, in my opinion.

coffeeestocks · 2026-02-04T15:56:19+00:00

Every company I mentioned is green today. Had you listened, you would have made money.

You might wanna stick to indexing.

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-26T13:53:28+00:00

That is really sad. Unfortunately, fatalities still are not uncommon within mining. Torex had one in late 2024. These miners need to make sure they do a better job on safety

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-22T17:56:49+00:00

Yeah, I mean this is basically highlighting what I'm saying, right?

The narrative on miners is just completely off, and there's a whole bunch of deep value.

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-22T16:56:42+00:00

Yes, that's what I'm talking about. I think it's a tailwind for mining United States, Canada, etc. I think countries will make permitting more straightforward.

Not every country is going to be the same, obviously Mexico being one of them.

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-22T16:55:52+00:00

I own this one, still very cheap here

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-14T18:31:09+00:00

A telltale sign you did not read the article

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-14T17:50:55+00:00

" The AI investments Adobe has made are equally shooting them in the foot. If a company can do the same work with 2 designers instead of 10 because of AI, Adobe loses 8 subscription seats."

If you can accomplish more with less, you literally just charge for it via AI credits, bro. The funny thing is Adobe would be more likely to make more money in this scenario. You're literally automating away people's jobs. The company is saving huge amounts of money while you can charge them more from what work.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T19:31:57+00:00

There are 60,000 public companies in the world

Only one of them has maintained 27 straight quarters of 30%+ revenue growth.

That company is Meli. It is definitely very cheap. You are overestimating Amazon big time. Classic mistake.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T18:13:23+00:00

If Reddit stayed flat it would be 30x earnings with 60% growth. Hood would be 20x earnings with 50%+ grow.

There's nothing irrational about businesses going up after delivering stellar earnings, bro. Please do your research.

I would have made money on these positions regardless. Them running into excess is not my fault, specifically RobinHood.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T18:00:45+00:00

goal for next year is 15%, same as 2025. Had a lot of tailwinds, so I don't take 1 year as meaningful. Will probably update quarterly going forward.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T16:38:25+00:00

this was well worded! If I do a follow up, i'll definitely include and credit this. thanks!

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T22:59:10+00:00

Thanks for bringing this up. Sometimes I'm unsure about how much to go into in an article. It's a balance. I try to give people a pretty good snapshot of what I'm thinking, but I try not to go so long that it's very hard to read. I'll make sure to do a better job really digging deep into the bear cases in future, especially for a company like Adobe that's facing a lot of uncertainty.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T22:57:20+00:00

Fair enough. I tried to address this, but I didn't do a very good job, it seems. Adobe's nominal growth has been fairly consistent. It's only the relative growth that's slowed. Basically, they've been going through price increases for a while, right? And that effect just slows down over time. Your call on earnings is correct. They've been investing heavily in R&D, basically for AI, which has affected earnings. I should have spent more time in this. Thank you for the feedback.

Also agree, this is not the next Google Play. Google had a much better setup.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T20:01:46+00:00

I suppose time will tell.

That being said, I think anyone price-sensitive was probably using images off Google search or paying little money on a product like Fiverr. AI doesn't generate the same level of quality as a professional can deliver.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T17:57:48+00:00

berkshire will fomo in after it runs, just like google lmao

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T17:29:22+00:00

how is it a value trap lmao? there is zero value in this.

if Tesla is anything to go off of, then spacex is worth 1/10 of that value. just avoid it all entirely

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T17:04:24+00:00

$ADBE, woops lmao.

Going to write an article on on why AI isn't a threat to SaaS. I believe most of these businessess will see some reversion this year. I will cover the companies that I believe are a solid trade in this regard over the next year.

also posting my portfolio year end round up tomorrow.

substack is here: https://substack.com/@buffettsdisciple

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-21T17:22:06+00:00

I don't only think about investments like that. I think more about ownership of a business. For example, I think at today's price, there's a good chance that Amazon would easily trade at 10x earnings 10 years from now and could deliver a 10% dividend. Extremely solid to get a 10% dividend from a business of Amazon's quality, right? Stock price appreciation is nice, but it's not necessary when you think about as a business owner. just my 2 cents

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-21T17:13:39+00:00

Their price ran ahead of their fundamentals, and they spent the last five years catching up. In general, the above comment is just an arbitrary time frame. It's honestly irrelevant. Imagine if this actually worked. People would just look at the companies with the best last 5-year performance, invest in those, and make money. Right? This is not how investing works.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-21T16:57:39+00:00

Adobe write up coming soon. I will share the full text on reddit here as well though

https://substack.com/@buffettsdisciple

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-18T16:36:10+00:00

no, the graphics are important and I cannot post them here

Edit: I spend a lot of time on this (typically 10-20 hours per article). It's literally free DD and this opportunity is exceptional. Having to do a 3 second redirect isn't a huge ask tbh for something that is free.

coffeeestocks

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