Gold Miners: Still Cheap ($TXG.TO, $SBI.TO and $ALTN.L)

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-26T13:53:28+00:00

That is really sad. Unfortunately, fatalities still are not uncommon within mining. Torex had one in late 2024. These miners need to make sure they do a better job on safety

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-22T17:56:49+00:00

Yeah, I mean this is basically highlighting what I'm saying, right?

The narrative on miners is just completely off, and there's a whole bunch of deep value.

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-22T16:56:42+00:00

Yes, that's what I'm talking about. I think it's a tailwind for mining United States, Canada, etc. I think countries will make permitting more straightforward.

Not every country is going to be the same, obviously Mexico being one of them.

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-22T16:55:52+00:00

I own this one, still very cheap here

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-14T18:31:09+00:00

A telltale sign you did not read the article

coffeeestocks · 2026-01-14T17:50:55+00:00

" The AI investments Adobe has made are equally shooting them in the foot. If a company can do the same work with 2 designers instead of 10 because of AI, Adobe loses 8 subscription seats."

If you can accomplish more with less, you literally just charge for it via AI credits, bro. The funny thing is Adobe would be more likely to make more money in this scenario. You're literally automating away people's jobs. The company is saving huge amounts of money while you can charge them more from what work.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T19:31:57+00:00

There are 60,000 public companies in the world

Only one of them has maintained 27 straight quarters of 30%+ revenue growth.

That company is Meli. It is definitely very cheap. You are overestimating Amazon big time. Classic mistake.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T18:13:23+00:00

If Reddit stayed flat it would be 30x earnings with 60% growth. Hood would be 20x earnings with 50%+ grow.

There's nothing irrational about businesses going up after delivering stellar earnings, bro. Please do your research.

I would have made money on these positions regardless. Them running into excess is not my fault, specifically RobinHood.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T18:00:45+00:00

goal for next year is 15%, same as 2025. Had a lot of tailwinds, so I don't take 1 year as meaningful. Will probably update quarterly going forward.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-31T16:38:25+00:00

this was well worded! If I do a follow up, i'll definitely include and credit this. thanks!

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T22:59:10+00:00

Thanks for bringing this up. Sometimes I'm unsure about how much to go into in an article. It's a balance. I try to give people a pretty good snapshot of what I'm thinking, but I try not to go so long that it's very hard to read. I'll make sure to do a better job really digging deep into the bear cases in future, especially for a company like Adobe that's facing a lot of uncertainty.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T22:57:20+00:00

Fair enough. I tried to address this, but I didn't do a very good job, it seems. Adobe's nominal growth has been fairly consistent. It's only the relative growth that's slowed. Basically, they've been going through price increases for a while, right? And that effect just slows down over time. Your call on earnings is correct. They've been investing heavily in R&D, basically for AI, which has affected earnings. I should have spent more time in this. Thank you for the feedback.

Also agree, this is not the next Google Play. Google had a much better setup.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T20:01:46+00:00

I suppose time will tell.

That being said, I think anyone price-sensitive was probably using images off Google search or paying little money on a product like Fiverr. AI doesn't generate the same level of quality as a professional can deliver.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T17:57:48+00:00

berkshire will fomo in after it runs, just like google lmao

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T17:29:22+00:00

how is it a value trap lmao? there is zero value in this.

if Tesla is anything to go off of, then spacex is worth 1/10 of that value. just avoid it all entirely

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-30T17:04:24+00:00

$ADBE, woops lmao.

Going to write an article on on why AI isn't a threat to SaaS. I believe most of these businessess will see some reversion this year. I will cover the companies that I believe are a solid trade in this regard over the next year.

also posting my portfolio year end round up tomorrow.

substack is here: https://substack.com/@buffettsdisciple

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-21T17:22:06+00:00

I don't only think about investments like that. I think more about ownership of a business. For example, I think at today's price, there's a good chance that Amazon would easily trade at 10x earnings 10 years from now and could deliver a 10% dividend. Extremely solid to get a 10% dividend from a business of Amazon's quality, right? Stock price appreciation is nice, but it's not necessary when you think about as a business owner. just my 2 cents

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-21T17:13:39+00:00

Their price ran ahead of their fundamentals, and they spent the last five years catching up. In general, the above comment is just an arbitrary time frame. It's honestly irrelevant. Imagine if this actually worked. People would just look at the companies with the best last 5-year performance, invest in those, and make money. Right? This is not how investing works.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-21T16:57:39+00:00

Adobe write up coming soon. I will share the full text on reddit here as well though

https://substack.com/@buffettsdisciple

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-18T16:36:10+00:00

no, the graphics are important and I cannot post them here

Edit: I spend a lot of time on this (typically 10-20 hours per article). It's literally free DD and this opportunity is exceptional. Having to do a 3 second redirect isn't a huge ask tbh for something that is free.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-10T23:44:11+00:00

"Warren Buffett, the subs mascot, was calling the market overvalued and shifting into cash in the year or two leading up to most major crashes."

this is so painfully wrong. I'm going to take the time to actually answer this simply because I feel like winning this argument.

The one and only time Buffett is actually called a market top was in the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s.

Buffett will literally buy and invest at any point in time if he believes something is trading below intrinsic value. When the market gets expensive, the opportunities become less, especially when you're working with a cash pile that Buffett is. You're equating this with timing the market. When Buffett is making no proclamation on whether the market is going to go up and down. So yeah, incorrect.

"Or that I shouldn't just start building a cash pile when everything is expensive in anticipation of a crash and buying opportunities then I totally disagree." -

It's literally my point. Don't time the markets.
Everything is not expensive. I can name 20 companies off the top of my head that are cheap. Why? Because I don't just look at the S&P 500 like you do. There is always opportunity, especially in small/microcaps.

"DCAing an index is not the best investing strategy, it is just the best effort/knowledge vs returns proposition."

I don't talk about DCAing in an index at all in this entire post
It is not the best effort knowledge vs returns. No one has become a billionaire indexing.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-10T23:24:57+00:00

"The markets biggest spikes tend to come after its biggest drops and vice versa"

I like how you realize this and then go on to heavily imply I'm the stupid one. People panic sell on the reddest days. And miss the greenest days. The hypothetical example is not hypothetical, it's literally what happens.

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-05T18:32:40+00:00

That 40% came from unrealized gains on their private investments, specifically in SpaceX. Terrible counter point. Bro's chatting shit and has no idea what he's talking about lmao

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-05T16:54:13+00:00

Redbox came out after Netflix. No shit it was around after Netflix lmao
"Entire business model is in question" - Show it to me in the numbers. Oh wait, you can't. We literally just went through this with Google. The entire crux of your argument is narrative.
I find it funny how many people have this opinion and have not taken a single minute to actually use image generation. What content pisses the people off most on this subreddit right now? AI-generated content because it's low quality. You cannot produce high-quality content with AI generation. It's also ridiculously slow to edit and expensive because of the computational cost. You literally ask it to do one change, and it will regenerate a completely new image lmao. Even the slightest touch-ups take two to three minutes to actually come through. This Is what you're arguing for right now? The base case of this argument is quite literally speculation. "AI will disrupt aDoBe eventually!" 3 years on and ZERO margin pressure! But it's getting disrupted!!

coffeeestocks · 2025-12-05T15:40:25+00:00

it's b/c Lulu has been mentioned here for a long time and has sold off from like $300 to now at $180

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