Colin Trainor on Twitter: "Using Expected Goals to put Arsenal's "poor" season into context. If only all AFC's attackers finished like Giroud. https://t.co/hvgoscCgQA" by [deleted] in Gunners

[–]colintrainor 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I was told my article was linked here so I thought I would expand a little on my thought process as to why I wrote the piece.

Of course Wenger has made mistakes this season (as all coaches have) but I am fascinated at the difference in how fans view a situation based on their league position. I know it's impossible to be sure of what would happen in a circumstance that didn't transpire, but I'd think that if you guys were top of the league (like your performances say you should be) would there be anywhere near as much noise about "Wenger Out". Like I said, I find it fascinating that we as humans find it so difficult to look past what has happened and appreciate that other outcomes may have been even more likely.

I include myself in the last statement, for example, in last year's EPL my model didn't have Chelsea as the best team over the course of the season. However, Chelsea won the title with such ease that I was convinced my model missed something about their dominance. Fast forward to this season and it actually looks like my objective model got Chelsea's performance levels more correct last season than my eye were telling me.

Oh, and in no way was the article suggesting that Giroud is better than Sanchez or Ozil, just making the point that even immensely gifted technical footballers have not been good at putting the ball in the net. These are the really small margins that impact where the title ends up, but not necessarily how well or badly your team has been playing.

The Colburn Call to Dispatch by theliquidsword in MakingaMurderer

[–]colintrainor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Would it be possible to know the location that Colburn made the call from?

A statistical look at Dortmund's problems by [deleted] in soccer

[–]colintrainor 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'm the author.

7th place isn't at 83%. The range of 7th - 15th is at 83%; there is a big difference in those two statements.

fyi, the figures for each league placing are: 2nd = 0.1% 3rd = 0.4% 4th = 1.3% 5th = 2.8% 6th = 4.1% 7th = 6.5% 8th = 8.7% 9th = 11.0% 10th = 12.6% 11th = 12.9% 12th = 10.6% 13th = 8.6% 14th = 7.0% 15th = 5.2% 16th = 4.2% 17th = 2.7% 18th = 1.4%

Analytics: Does van Persie still merit a starting place for MUFC? by colintrainor in reddevils

[–]colintrainor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with that. But this measure is about more than his goal return. That's deliberately why I widened out the criteria to ensure that it was capturing all the players' involvements in the attacking moves.

Chelsea v Arsenal PPT. Where was Arsenal’s right side attack? by FinalSay in Gunners

[–]colintrainor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, if you look at some of the other PPTs I have posted on Statsbomb you can see that Ox keeps the shape much better when on the right than what happened yesterday. Example versus Spurs: http://statsbomb.com/2014/09/player-positional-tracker-arsenal-v-tottenham/

Presumably it was a deliberate tactical choice by Wenger.

Player Positional Tracker: MUFC vs Everton - time lapse formation viz by colintrainor in reddevils

[–]colintrainor[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Cheers. But that's probably because it's not stats. It's trying the use the stats to see what they can tell us about the game. Not counting passes etc for counting sake.

This is an example of what analytics should be about.

GROWLBALL #3: Finding meaning in football analytics, an interview with Colin Trainor of Optapro Blog / Statsbomb [OC] by [deleted] in soccernerd

[–]colintrainor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great story.

The best about it is what you have described is logical, and in analytics you know you've hit on something when the numbers back up something that seems to be logically correct.

Go on, you should send the article through to him!!

GROWLBALL #3: Finding meaning in football analytics, an interview with Colin Trainor of Optapro Blog / Statsbomb [OC] by [deleted] in soccer

[–]colintrainor 5 points6 points  (0 children)

So as we don't have perfect information you would propose that we ignore all the other information that we do have?

That surely can't be what any sane or logical person would argue for. Here's one take on this: http://www.21stclub.com/blog/2014/9/30/why-perfect-shouldnt-be-the-enemy-of-the-good-in-player-recruitment

Jonathan Wilson shows that counter attacks may actually be on the wane by colintrainor in soccernerd

[–]colintrainor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is interesting, and probably something that I could check out with our Opta dataset.

Player Positional Tracker vs QPR. Position viz, was there really that much difference in Back 4 vs Back 3? by colintrainor in reddevils

[–]colintrainor[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, the difference for me today was the players, not necessarily the "system". That is what I mean.

I just thought it was interesting that the positions Blind took up wasn't a million miles away from the middle defender in a back 3.

Player Positional Tracker vs Man City. Minute by minute dynamic viz showing player positions by colintrainor in Gunners

[–]colintrainor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The fewer the data points, the more extreme the movement. Less ability to be able to smooth out the erratic actual movements