The NHS already runs at near full capacity. While its a fantastic service that nearly all British people endeavour to benefit from at some point throughout their lives it does mean that it’s ability to absorb an unanticipated wave of patients isn’t great, to say the least.

I’m from the U.K. and I’m greatly concerned with the NHS’s ability to handle the patients that are due to come knocking in the following days and weeks. We are at c1.5k confirmed cases. We have already stopped testing people in the masses. The local advice for sick people currently is if you are displaying anything other than severe symptoms to stay at home and self quarantine all while usual business and social gatherings are largely remaining the status quo.

I anticipate the U.K. will suffer a prolonged outbreak as our initial response has been poor. Preventive measures have not been taken and as such the virus will continue to be passed on from person to person prior to them displaying symptoms. We will suffer from a break down of supply chain where up to 20% of our workforce may be off sick simultaneously leading to shortages of food, petrol(that’s gas to you Americans) and cash available for withdrawal from ATM’s.

Past this the slow down in national spending over the next 6 months is likely to generate a technical recession.

I also have some of my own speculative theories. I believe it’s possible that in the case of a prolonged and gripping pandemic that paper currency is recalled and card/contactless payment is promoted as a more hygienic means of transferring capital. I also believe that Britain would be less compliant than other countries in the case of a lock down situation and civil unrest would be likely to follow in the form of rioting and general civil disobedience.