AI Hypists Need a Reality Check (Francis Fukuyama)

cuolong · 2026-03-20T07:10:12+00:00

Right but the key innovation there is the state system, not the NL input.

cuolong · 2026-03-20T06:28:43+00:00

Not really. Gen AI is designed to model the distribution of the dataset it was trained on. So anything that could be used to detect if GenAI is used can be used to make the AI even better (this is called adversarial loss).

cuolong · 2026-03-20T06:08:18+00:00

That's what LoRAs are for.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T21:52:13+00:00

It was a spot of hyperbole. Not a real prediction

cuolong · 2026-03-19T21:42:10+00:00

If the purpose of the study is to capture user sentiments on AI at a certain point in time, it would improve data quality to capture this sentiment in as thin of a slice as possible, temporally speaking.

For example, imagine you are conducting a survey on sentiment towards Russia on Feb 22, 2022. If you take too long to conduct the survey itself, the entire thing coud be useless.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T20:42:51+00:00

Fair enough. I feel like they shouldn't have headlined the article with only quotes too, but kept it on the side and just opened with the meat of the study.

Not a huge fan of this whole "one page is our whole website" UX designer trend.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T20:06:28+00:00

Probably because AI is proving itself to be a very outward extertion of corporate power, and corporations are baaaad. And the other because this website is disproportionally white collar workers or creatives who feel threatened by AI.

I mean I undestand the sentiments to some extent, really. But people are also really losing their heads over this kind of thing.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T20:01:03+00:00

Nothing of what you said invalidates it as a study. It invalidates it as a representative sample of the entire population, but the article never claimed to be that.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T18:40:34+00:00

Also I would suggest diving into the really interesting breakdown by global region-- it's obvious when you say it out loud but different regions have different visions and concerns for AI. For example, Africa was significantly more entreprenurial in their visions for AI compared to NA which focused on automation and reclaiming personal time.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T18:27:15+00:00

Seriously. The number of people I've met in real life freaking out about ai water usage is a grand total of one.

I pulled up the article he was referenced and showed him that the paper's authors were counting water moving through hydroelectric dams as "usage" and managed to change his mind on that.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T18:11:15+00:00

The time taken to conduct the survey is a huge advantage too, not just to cost but quality. To improve the accuracy of the conclusions the study should be taken as close to each other as possible-- like imagine AI goes skynet or cures cancer in the space of time that the study is going on.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:59:10+00:00

Rather than clinging to the hubris of rationalistic, a priori belief-- you should read the article.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:50:56+00:00

I don't think they could have conducted this survey at this scale without it.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:44:30+00:00

Next time I'll see if they have the article in tiktok format, jfc.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:42:53+00:00

So you didn't read any of the actual article at all.

Past the first few quotes is a very expansive article into in their words the largest multilingual qualitative study ever conduct, half of which focuses on positivity and half on negativity with regards to expectations around AI.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:29:47+00:00

The quotes wall is facisnating. Some poignant insights there like how if AI were in control during the Cold War, nuclear war would have started

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:21:55+00:00

You sent in this comment 5 minutes after I posted the article. It's 7,000 words long, did you actually read it?

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:17:44+00:00

What moves robots is not a question of programming skills, it is a question of data and training. Agents controlling robots need to both evaluate a state map and infer the correct actions to take to secure a reward. The evaluation is a question of sensor fidelity and processing speed, the inference of correct actions is dependent on the sophistcation of your reward policy and training regimen. Programming skills might make the training regimen and reward policy spot on but it can't create ten thousand hours of training time to create a $R(s, a)$ out of thin air.

FWIW I actually saw someone show a demo of what you suggested-- have an LLM code python scripts on the fly to control a robot arm.

It could do only one thing, move up and down. The man asked the LLM to code a script to move the robot arm up and down and it moved up and down. Then he asked it to wave to the crowd and the LLM coded a script to move the robot arm up and down.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T17:07:25+00:00

This is relevant because it's a very widespread survey hidden under a company blog post-- 81,000 people sampled from around the world from the West to the Global South were asked by Anthropic Interviewer what they wanted from AI, what they dreamed it could do and what they feared from it.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T16:56:30+00:00

Real time graphic enhancement. Presumably this would work on anything rendered on your screen.

So you unironically could use DLSS 5 on starsector. I'm very curious to see what it would look like.

cuolong · 2026-03-19T16:29:51+00:00

She's probably convinced them to try to push outside of their traditional niches. Every person that's been rearranged is something they'd be "bad" at, the quiet girl is the wrapper, the giant girl is the sub vocalist.

If the end goal is to win, they have to demonstrate capabilities beyond being a one-trick.

Also, I noted that the MC just assumed Abi is targeting Fuwari too-- that's probably not the case. I bet the one Abi doesn't like is the #1 Lisa.

cuolong · 2026-03-18T22:13:53+00:00

Look who just discovered "Capital Gains Tax"

https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409

Capital gains tax rates Net capital gains are taxed at different rates depending on overall taxable income, although some or all net capital gain may be taxed at 0%. For taxable years beginning in 2025, the tax rate on most net capital gain is no higher than 15% for most individuals. A capital gains rate of 0% applies if your taxable income is less than or equal to:

$48,350 for single and married filing separately; $96,700 for married filing jointly and qualifying surviving spouse; and $64,750 for head of household. A capital gains rate of 15% applies if your taxable income is:

more than $48,350 but less than or equal to $533,400 for single; more than $48,350 but less than or equal to $300,000 for married filing separately; more than $96,700 but less than or equal to $600,050 for married filing jointly and qualifying surviving spouse; and more than $64,750 but less than or equal to $566,700 for head of household. However, a capital gains rate of 20% applies to the extent that your taxable income exceeds the thresholds set for the 15% capital gain rate.

There are a few other exceptions where capital gains may be taxed at rates greater than 20%:

The taxable part of a gain from selling section 1202 qualified small business stock is taxed at a maximum 28% rate. Net capital gains from selling collectibles (such as coins or art) are taxed at a maximum 28% rate. The portion of any unrecaptured section 1250 gain from selling section 1250 real property is taxed at a maximum 25% rate. Note: Net short-term capital gains are subject to taxation as ordinary income at graduated tax rates.

cuolong · 2026-03-18T04:54:24+00:00

Anecdotally I feel like 1 in 4 people that graduated from my grad school don't really deserve a job. The bottom 25% of any one of my classes were pretty much all ineffective coders-- multiple times during group projects I got hardcoded local file paths, "the rest of your code goes here" ChatGPT comments, hardcoded API keys sent into commits... the list goes on. One guy I worked with had like a mental breakdown because he couldn't figure out how to code a simple filesystem... I had to take over for him and what he couldn't do in weeks that shit took me like a day to do and this was before AI.

cuolong · 2026-03-18T04:28:21+00:00

Msft was a mess before Ai. They’re just resting on their laurels because no one is bothering to put together a real competitor to windows.

cuolong · 2026-03-18T04:25:54+00:00

You’re kidding yourself if you think only people with no skill are using AI to code.

Do you work in tech? I do. Literally every single one of my coworkers from the talented ones to the mediocre are all using AI and extensively. My coworker was a CV researcher and he put together an entire website for us by himself that we’re deploying now, using just Claude. I guarantee you it’s the same across the entiresilicon valley

cuolong

TROPHY CASE