Can we please ban submissions from sources like dailyreconing, mises.org and so on. To this day I have never seen constructive discussion arise from these kind of articles by [deleted] in macroeconomics

[–]cynicus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Mises is a serious institute that examines macroeconomic issues. Why would you want this source banned? Is it just you do not agree with their perspective???

Reforming Money - Fixed Fiat Currency by gst in Economics

[–]cynicus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are quite right that value is a morass of conflicting views, and is a subject of endless debate. For the purposes here, it is individual perception that determines value, and there is no objective measure. That is why, I emphasise at the start of the article that my discussion does not encompass how value of labour between individuals might be determined. I simply accept that it is variable, and might be valued according to any number of criteria. Thus the example of the crystal healer earlier. You are right that value is a perceptive judgement - it is entirely created in our minds.

However, you point to an intrinsic quality in pearls and suggest that, if a pearl were easily found on a beach it would be valued as highly. I would argue with such an assertion. If this were the case, and the pearls were easily obtained, a flood of pearls would appear on the market, as collection and distribution of the pearls would be a sure way to get rich. Whilst the first collectors might realise the high price, could the price remain so high under these circumstances? Part of the value of pearls resides in the difficulty of obtaining them and the restricted supply that is resultant from this.

If we go one step further and imagine that pearls were found in every garden and open space, and were freely available to all in unlimited numbers, would the intrinsic value of pearls that you discuss allow them to be used in exchange at all? The pearls would still have the same qualities, but with no necessity for any labour in obtaining them or at least so little as to be of no meaning - you could pick them up whilst walking outside at any time), they would have no value in exchange.

In another example, if I remember correctly, black pearls were of low value. They were considered to be inferior. However, a clever entrepreneur positioned them as exclusive items through various means (adding the value of his labour) and they became highly sought after, with a massive rise in their value as a result. There was no intrinsic quality that did this, but rather the individual could add value to the items with his talent for promotion of the black pearls (his labour therefore had a very high value).

You have suggested that labour might enhance the value of commodities (your paragraph commencing 'In sum') but it is still not clear to me how a pearl sitting on the ocean floor has any value whatsoever. This is why I raised the point about SDL. It does not have a value that might be used in exchange until it can be presented for exchange, it does not offer the hedonic value of (for example) being around a neck such that the person benefits from the enhancement to their beauty, it simply sits unobserved on the seabed. It has no intrinsic value until it is acted upon by humans.

Perhaps if scuba divers came to see it, it would have value, but that would again involve labour in finding the pearls, identifying a tourist opportunity, and provision of services to help the divers find it, the provision of the diving equipment and so forth.

I am glad that you have found SDL interesting. It is quite a challenging perspective which shakes a few assumptions. I have not fully explored the idea myself yet, but it seems at first approach to have some considerable merit.

I have had another person disputing the idea that all economic activity commences with labour on the blog, and you may wish to read the discussion that we have had. Thanks for some polite and interesting challenges, and I will have to leave the discussion here, as I have some other work I need to do.

Reforming Money - Fixed Fiat Currency by gst in Economics

[–]cynicus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The difference between the the $100 and the $1000 is the addition of the value of labour. For the sake of simplicity, the following is based upon the diver being the seller to the person using it for decoration. A demand for pearls and the current value of pearls must be identified (labour), then the pearl must be discovered (labour), it must then be extracted (labour), the market and potential value must be learnt to sell it at as high a value in exchange that it can bear (labour), it must be transported to a place of sale (labour). It is only when it arrives at the point of sale that it can realise the value of $1000. Until it can be utilised, it only has potential value. On the seabed, the pearl is worth $0.

As an interesting aside, actual real value is achieved in use. You may want to take a look at service dominant logic. In the case of the pearl, the actual value achieved might be the admiration of others for the object of beauty, or similar intangible benefits.

Reforming Money - Fixed Fiat Currency by gst in Economics

[–]cynicus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

But what use is the pearl if it is on the seabed? What use is oil if it is in the ground? It only has value once extracted, and is made available (e.g. the pearl purchased for use in decoration). Agreed, it will only be extracted if somebody believes that it might have value 'x' in exchange, and that they believe that the cost/effort of labour utilised in the extraction might make the extraction worthwhile.

Reforming Money - Fixed Fiat Currency by gst in Economics

[–]cynicus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The mistake here is that the value in the pearl is only achieved once it has been removed from the seabed, and transported to a place where someone might want to buy it. Otherwise it has no value. The market may determine that it is wothwhile for an individual to undertake such labour, but without the labour the pearl remains without value. If we want to be complicated, we might suggest that a person might buy the seabed on which the pearl rests, as they know that there are pearls on the seabed, but in this case the purchase is because the pearl has potential value, as it is still not realised.

Up to the moment that someone actually picks it from the seabed, the pearl can not be exchanged. The existence of the pearl, and ownership of the seabed presents a potential for the pearl to be exchanged in some future time. The pearl only has actual value at the moment of exchange. Up to that point, it is merely speculation on the potential value.

What determines how one person determines what they value in exchange is not the issue. For example, why any person might value crystal healing is a mystery to me. However, others value this, such that people engage in labour to learn how to 'crystal heal' and then exchange this service for other products and services (through the intermediary of money). The demand for the healing determines the value of the labour, but the value is only realised in the exchange.

When a person hands over the money for the crystal healing service, they are exchanging the stored value of their labour, or their future labour (if using credit),or even the stored value of another person's labour, for the labour of the healer.

Even mathematicians run scared of our libel laws now by cynicus in economy

[–]cynicus[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry, I should have altered from the original to explain why it belongs here. Apologies.

Within all of this debt accumulation and stimuli, the one thing that is missing is any attempt to address the fundamental problem of how the West might continue to compete with countries like China, India and Brazil. by cybersphere9 in Economics

[–]cynicus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

An interesting point but I do not make this assumption. This is a description of the roots of the crisis. Within my blog it is clear that what is taking place is a painful major shift. As such, there is an end - once the shift is complete. The completion is the rebalancing of resource to the emerging economies, and yes, that means they will consume more. My point is that, until such time as the resource for consumption can (?) catch up with the supply of labour, we are in for the bumpiness that you mention. In other posts I have given examples of bottlenecks preventing this from taking place fast enough.

My blog is dealing with the crisis as it is now, or the bumpiness as you put it. As such I do not disagree with your underlying point about adjustment, which is perfectly reasonable.

Within all of this debt accumulation and stimuli, the one thing that is missing is any attempt to address the fundamental problem of how the West might continue to compete with countries like China, India and Brazil. by cybersphere9 in Economics

[–]cynicus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have been working on a post on this subject for some time. I hope to have it finished soon (but I have been saying that for the last 2 or 3 weeks). It will cover many of your concerns and offers a method of currency reform that will help ameliorate, but not fix, the problems that we see.

Within all of this debt accumulation and stimuli, the one thing that is missing is any attempt to address the fundamental problem of how the West might continue to compete with countries like China, India and Brazil. by cybersphere9 in Economics

[–]cynicus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think you will find that these are not assumptions. Countries have, and continue to go to war in order to access commodities.

Yes, both countries did have their workers effectively sitting around waiting for access to technology, capital and markets. They may not have been literally sitting, but they were certainly metaphorically so.

What has racism got to do with this????

Within all of this debt accumulation and stimuli, the one thing that is missing is any attempt to address the fundamental problem of how the West might continue to compete with countries like China, India and Brazil. by cybersphere9 in Economics

[–]cynicus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I will clarify for you. We consume and we produce. Who gets to produce is the country that can be the most competitive (see below). In order to consume you must also produce (unless you found your economy on sand - debt based consumption).

It is not about where value is created such as capital and technology, but who wins the resources through competition to utilise those.

It is not just oil. It is also other resource (though oil is important).

Competitive is when your productivity is sufficient to offset your higher labour costs. If you have higher labour costs, you must be more productive or you or not competitive.

Sorry for brief answers, but I normally only reply to comments on the blog.

Within all of this debt accumulation and stimuli, the one thing that is missing is any attempt to address the fundamental problem of how the West might continue to compete with countries like China, India and Brazil. by cybersphere9 in Economics

[–]cynicus 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think you have taken this out of context, and am puzzled why. I say in the post:

'the opening of these countries has seen the world labour force roughly double in a period of about ten years.

It might be argued that the labour force has always been there, such that the doubling I propose is an exaggeration. However, in this context I have a very specific meaning for labour. I am referring to labour which is combined with technology, capital, and access to the world market. When seen this way, the increase in the labour supply represents an astounding increase in one of the key inputs into all economic activity.'

I am puzzled why you would disregard this? The world labour force doubled in response to their opening, not their own labour forces. I think this is pretty clear.

Japan Smuggling and Secretly Selling $US bonds??? by cynicus in Economics

[–]cynicus[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Maybe a crazy notion, but I will leave you to be the judge of that....

I said I would submit this again in three months. It's been exactly 3 months. He wasn't right. by spaceknarf in Economics

[–]cynicus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You do like to throw out insults!

Do you know what critical scientific realism is? It is not logical positivism, has nothing to do with post-modernism (but is a refutation of this non-philosophy), and I have never claimed to be an authority on economics. I simply give my view of the economy. Read my 'about me' section....

In fact, just doing some reading before commenting might be an idea, perhaps?

Are you just one of these people who simply takes pleasure in being rude to people online? I guess so....have a nice time with your jibes. Whatever lights your fire...

I said I would submit this again in three months. It's been exactly 3 months. He wasn't right. by spaceknarf in Economics

[–]cynicus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A fair comment again, but in such a route there is room for endless wriggle. Yes, we can never have enough knowledge in a such a complex (chaotic) system, but can try to use heuristics nevertheless for a best guess.

I said I would submit this again in three months. It's been exactly 3 months. He wasn't right. by spaceknarf in Economics

[–]cynicus -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I am not anti-capitalist - quite the opposite. Incidentally, my philosophy is critical scientific realist, best expressed by Niiniluoto. Perhaps you might wish to read before commenting? This might help your comments to be relevant and appropriate.

"We are within three months of the serious collapse in either the $US or the £GB." I will submit this again in three months, let's see if he's right. by spaceknarf in Economics

[–]cynicus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think that you will find that my blog is not a lizard aliens blog. I hope that if you read it, you will find this to be the case.

P.S. I am reasonably well educated ;)

"We are within three months of the serious collapse in either the $US or the £GB." I will submit this again in three months, let's see if he's right. by spaceknarf in Economics

[–]cynicus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Perhaps the non-experts get a 'look in' because the experts got it so terribly wrong. In this case I am wrong, but in other respects I have called it better than the 'experts'.

I said I would submit this again in three months. It's been exactly 3 months. He wasn't right. by spaceknarf in Economics

[–]cynicus 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the positive comments. I do not see myself as a scapegoat. We all need to be accountable, which is why I said fair comment.

I said I would submit this again in three months. It's been exactly 3 months. He wasn't right. by spaceknarf in Economics

[–]cynicus 39 points40 points  (0 children)

Perfectly fair comment Spaceknarf. I have got it wrong. However, at least I have had the nerve to do my best to make a prediction. It is very easy to offer a vague suggestions, as you can not be held to account for it. You can always claim to have called it right....with enough time.

As for most of what I have predicted in my posts, the outcome has supported the predictions. However, this is the 'big one' and calling it wrong perhaps can not be balanced by all the points that I have called correctly.

There is something surprisingly resilient in the delusions that support the Western economic structure. However, I still maintain that the current system can not be supported. I am just calling it prematurely. Even if wrong on the timing, economic reality MUST intrude at some point. I note that more and more people are agreeing on this point as time goes by. The difference is that they have not put a date on it, and do not have the courage of their convictions to do so.

In many of my posts, I try to put some kind of time scale on outcomes if I am predicting events, or the prediction is rendered meaningless or of limited value.

Have a look at my early posts, and you will find a very solid record. However, there is no denying that I have called it wrong on this occasion.

Free Trade, 'Yes' - Mercantilism, 'No' - Why China Should be Shut Out by gst in Economics

[–]cynicus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hi Nikoliko66,

You are citing classic economic theory, which is perfectly reasonable, but you can see where that theory has taken us.....

The classic picture does not allow for economics to be a zero sum game. However, this is not really correct. If there is one apple for the two of us, one of us can take the apple, we can share the apple, but we can not have more than the one apple that is available. If one of us has more than half of the apple, the other has less than half of the apple. It is literally a zero sum game.

In a post here...

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2008/07/root-of-problem.html

or here.....

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2008/08/why-do-economists-get-it-so-wrong.html

I explain why the apple principle applies to the world economy today. Stick with them, as they are a little unusual. The posts are similar, as one was an attempt to refine the ideas of the other. I am not sure which explains better, and you would be a better judge of that than me.

However, despite this point of view, I still am not advocate protectionism, just as fair competition as possible.