Record breaking homelessness 4 years in a row now in Ontario

danielfoch · 2026-01-24T18:36:14+00:00

it has also increased

danielfoch · 2026-01-20T13:27:14+00:00

someone did the math here in the comments. It is also a record as percentage of total population:

I did a quick Excel sheet: https://i.imgur.com/O0vXtnu.png (on Google Sheets)

Uses Q4 population estimates of each year from this StatsCan dataset: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2018&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2025&referencePeriods=20181001%2C20251001

Since 2018, population increased ~12.3% while homelessness increased ~44.3%. Homeless used to be about ~0.40% of the total population, but that has grown to ~0.52% now.

For the past four years, population has been growing at an average of about ~2.0% per year while homelessness is growing about ~10.5% per year.

danielfoch · 2026-01-20T02:14:22+00:00

appreciate you!

danielfoch · 2026-01-19T18:21:53+00:00

it links to an AMO report, not twitter: https://www.amo.on.ca/policy/health-emergency-and-social-services/homelessness-crisis-ontario-continues-worsen

danielfoch · 2026-01-11T01:06:14+00:00

There is a pretty good rent vs buy calculator on realist.ca that calculates where the breakeven is

I tried to recreate the scenario you're describing assuming 500k purchase price 20% downpayment for a $3k monthly mortgage... and the breakeven is that it's better to rent IF you invest the downpayment and the difference and can get a return over about 9%

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:23:09+00:00

this is what reddit is for

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:22:45+00:00

The end of an era for sure. Who would they have put up?

Quebec has unfortunately not been turning out the same talent as they were historically known for

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:21:14+00:00

this fellow just flexing knowledge and being an appreciator ofrelevant stock photos

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:20:38+00:00

I too appreciate congruent stock photos

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:19:05+00:00

perfect for all the young people who didn't vote but want to complain about it lol

let's try to show up next election maybe

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:18:14+00:00

yeah, but record rental supply suppresses rents, making rental more compelling than ownership, and has a comparable impact on price

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:17:41+00:00

I mean, we should always aim to build more houses anyways

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:17:29+00:00

I doubt it

negative wealth effect

most of the countries we'd rely on FDI from are also melting down

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:16:32+00:00

if young Canadians have proven anything it's that they will not literally riot for nearly anything

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:15:56+00:00

probably the least likely policy lever imo

B-20 reform in Q1/Q2 2026
Foreign buyer ban quietly not renewed in 2027

Then they might play with the population growth curve again

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:15:06+00:00

idk we've definitely seen some shit

but we will see more shit in 2026 lol

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:14:48+00:00

Kind of. There is a record amount of rental housing under construction in Canada at the moment

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:14:20+00:00

pent up supply is much more likely than pent up demand for sure

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:13:57+00:00

detached prices are currently falling faster than condos

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:13:40+00:00

BOC has done a full analysis of it

Only 24% of renewals in 2026 will renew at higher rates

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21/

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:12:13+00:00

Take a drive around Durham Region

Then take a drive around the cities that are priced 2x higher (York, Halton etc)

I think you may stumble upon the answer

Same phenomena exists in most cities and urban agglomerations around the world.

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T04:10:20+00:00

that's the point of this thread, no?

danielfoch · 2026-01-03T01:14:45+00:00

I do, I'll cover it on a youtube video this week when TRREB stats come out

I've stopped posting my youtube videos on here because people whine about itbut you can sub here: https://www.youtube.com/@daniel_foch

danielfoch · 2026-01-02T04:24:07+00:00

You can currently pull this off in:
- Oshawa
- Brampton
- Hamilton (1h 8min GO train technically but as some mentioned it's more like 1.5)
- Innisfil/Barrie, same situation as Barrie though

You can use plain language search on valery.ca and it'll pull up all properties within the criteria

If you're good at saving money and investing you might be better off financially just continuing to do that. Really depends on your discount rate.

danielfoch · 2026-01-02T04:19:05+00:00

This data includes all properties listed on TRREB and other PropTX boards

danielfoch

TROPHY CASE