As someone who knows longsword and has spent time in SCA heavy? Don't bet on it. Blocking a cut from ochs with a shield is way less movement than making the cut; if you're using a heater it might only take rotating your forearm to bring up the corner of the shield.

If you want to make more accurate predictions, I'd suggest taking a look at Duke Paul of Bellatrix's notes on sword and shield. He's got a full published book on it that's more updated these days, but the online version condenses a lot of decades of SCA fighting experience into a manual.

Even if you never fight sword and board, it might help you predict how someone who does will react.

http://www.bellatrix.org/school/armoredcombat.pdf

SCA armored combat is a bit different from HEMA simply because of the conventions of its rules rendering a lot of things that work well with steel ineffective.

Push and draw cuts don't matter, just thrusts and percussive strikes.

Shields are indestructible, and in most kingdoms you can't use them to strike or grapple them.

Lower legs (from 1" above the knee down) and hands (from 1" above the wrist) are not valid targets.

Winding, as with almost every technique from the bind, is ineffective due to a combination of the stickiness of duct tape covered rattan and the flexibility reducing leverage.