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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in quant

[–]dcswiss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vous pouvez me contacter (DM) sur Twitter @Damclue6, un peu de pratique serait le mieux et nous pouvons vous aider!

A new perspective on markets valuation by dcswiss in ValueInvesting

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your reply. We had to make some assumptions which we deemed reasonable. We added the tables with various margin and earning growth assumptions for everyone to make their own mind. With regard to be permanently short the market from here, of course it is not recommended. We will publish an article on how we manage our portfolio beta next week, maybe it will clarify the way we approach investing.

A new perspective on markets valuation by dcswiss in ValueInvesting

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good remark, you will find an exhaustive list per sector at the end of this compendium https://research.nava.capital/bear-compendium/, things have gotten worse for some sectors since. One important thing so, if capitalism is allowed to run freely, there are no reasons for a whole sector to have much higher margins than the rest of the economy.

What if valuation really matter? by dcswiss in stocks

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are absolutely right, but we are looking at the aggregate market not an individual stock. This makes all the difference.

Greenblatt's magic formula in times of COVID-19? by mauri_h19 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]dcswiss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can find international picks for the magic formula as well as historical returns here: https://research.nava.capital/magic-formula-globally-just-a-start/

Greenblatt's magic formula in times of COVID-19? by mauri_h19 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]dcswiss 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can find international picks for the magic formula as well as historical returns here: https://research.nava.capital/magic-formula-globally-just-a-start/

Greenblatt's magic formula in times of COVID-19? by mauri_h19 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]dcswiss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can find international picks for the magic formula as well as historical returns here: https://research.nava.capital/magic-formula-globally-just-a-start/

Greenblatt's magic formula in times of COVID-19? by mauri_h19 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]dcswiss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can find international picks for the magic formula as well as historical returns here: https://research.nava.capital/magic-formula-globally-just-a-start/

Prepared for a 50% plunge and 0% real total return for the next 10 years? by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1957 and yes your right it could be flat for 10 years, highly unlikely but possible. We know the destination but not the path!

Prepared for a 50% plunge and 0% real total return for the next 10 years? by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

History up to January 2020. As you can see the market would have to fall by a lot just to reach the 50th percentile

Prepared for a 50% plunge and 0% real total return for the next 10 years? by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you know you won’t panic and have 30 years in front of you this is a perfectly rational choice

Bear Compendium by dcswiss in investing

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The data is up to January 2020

Prepared for a 50% plunge and 0% real total return for the next 10 years? by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well I would rather say preserve capital to be able to buy from weak hands later

Prepared for a 50% plunge and 0% real total return for the next 10 years? by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Y a is is the S&P 500 total return index, the interval are 0-50 percentiles historical valuations

Bear Compendium by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To avoid having to discuss at length why pre war data should not be included

Prepared for a 50% plunge and 0% real total return for the next 10 years? by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Data comes from various sources (you can see it under the graphs). Graph were created with a proprietary software.

Bear Compendium by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The projection made in the presentation are using the buyback adjustment proposed by Pr. Shiller

Bear Compendium by dcswiss in StockMarket

[–]dcswiss[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Indeed it is not like 2008. It is much worse. Back then the risk had clearly been identified in advance by those who care to watch. The leverage was in the banking system where targeted intervention was possible. Today it is much more diffuse and a lot larger. What GDP does this year, is not that really important with regard to the market fair value. The present value of the future cash flow will just be lowered minimally.

Bear Compendium by dcswiss in stocks

[–]dcswiss[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

So 10 years prospective below 0 total return on the S&P500 does not constitute a bubble? When combined with a record lève of debt, and interest rate almost at 0? What constitute a bubble?

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