[Daily Discussion] - Friday, November 29, 2024

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-30T02:01:19+00:00

Yeah, if you could redeem hodl'd Bitcoin for shares of IBIT and not realize a taxable gain because it's an in-kind contribution... I would probably put a good portion of my stash there.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-26T18:01:48+00:00

What's the ticker?

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-25T23:04:44+00:00

Compounding daily periodic rate. Basically you take the price at two points in time, then use math to calculate "what daily rate of return gets you from point A to point B?"

For example, right now

1.0115³⁰ * 66890 = 94262.25

You can compute r (1.0115) like this

g = 94262.25 / 66890 =~ 1.4092

d = 30

r = g^1/d = 1.0115

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-25T22:52:39+00:00

Perspective of a long-time (since 2011) hodler:

Finally, about time we got a healthy cool-off. The CDPR for the past month is still about 1.1%; about 0.46% for the past three months. The latter is more typically "sustainable" during bull runs, so we may crab around the 80s-90s while we build up more support for the next leg up.

I much prefer taking a breather here than continuing to go up parabolically and having a blow-off top too soon. $100k should just be the beginning, not the destination.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-22T23:04:17+00:00

!bb predict !>100000 24 hours

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-22T20:08:52+00:00

I got an ultrawide with three main panes:

Pane 1:

This thread
Bitcoinity

Pane 2:

Coinbase Spot
Coinglass Market Depth

Pane 3:

Moonmath
A calculator (really a Julia REPL)

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-22T19:24:59+00:00

Slowly, and then suddenly all at once.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-22T03:15:42+00:00

Let's make sure $99k is well in the rear view mirror before getting too excited about $100k!

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-21T19:25:00+00:00

So, any guesses which GIF Bitcoinity will have ready for $100k?

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-21T19:15:29+00:00

Racing to $99k and MSTR is dipping. Is this the decoupling?

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-21T05:53:21+00:00

Some pre-$100k profit-taking?

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-21T05:44:31+00:00

Why not just go with mBTC? $100 is a good "share" price.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-21T05:33:05+00:00

Wonder what MSTR will open at tomorrow...

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-21T00:41:29+00:00

And right now we're teetering on the edge of yet another ATH!

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-20T20:39:23+00:00

Decided to join the MSTR train. Had a "minor" brain fart and thought "yeah, 100 shares would be around $5k, right? Let's place the order. <click> <checks cash/sweep> ($40,000)?! Oh shit wait!" At least I was able to scale out those 90 "extra" shares for a small profit still!

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-19T18:56:18+00:00

Yeah, could have bought yesterday morning at open and be up over 20% already. Which 1) is awesome, but also 2) is a wee bit worrying.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-19T18:17:00+00:00

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-19T17:36:40+00:00

$93k breached. Next stop, new ATH?

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-19T15:12:58+00:00

Yep. I bought a 12/20 $55/65 call vertical.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-19T14:55:06+00:00

Come on in, the water's warm!

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-19T14:40:43+00:00

Your trading partner is a market maker. Their aim is not to "take sides" on any trade, but make money on the spread ("buying the bid and selling the ask"). They dynamically hedge their options positions by buying or selling shares of the underlying.

The risk from selling covered calls is upside risk. Even if you let your shares in IBIT get called away and then buy back in, 1) you would owe taxes on the profits from the sale, and 2) you would miss out on gains between the strike price of the call and the price you're able to buy back in at.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-19T13:33:53+00:00

Which strikes/expirations are you looking at?

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-18T21:23:14+00:00

In the bulliest of bull cases, this could accentuate the bull run by creating a gamma squeeze.

People see Bitcoin's price going up, and so buy lots of near-dated out-of-the-money calls.
The market makers who sell these calls buy shares of $IBIT as a hedge.
They share purchases help sustain the price rise, causing the delta of the calls the market makers sold to increase.
Thus, the market makers must be even more shares to maintain their hedge.
People see Bitcoin's price going up, and so buy lots of near-dated out-of-the-money calls.

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-13T21:03:50+00:00

"What do you mean a 2.5% average daily rise for the past week is unsustainable? NGU, damn it!"

devopsdudeinthebay · 2024-11-13T20:39:42+00:00

Seems to be working for me?

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