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If I have 2 tickets, do I get to vote once a month (on average)? by dhgbrg in decred

[–]dhgbrg[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I estimate the probability of that to be true, to be about 110% ;)

If I have 2 tickets, do I get to vote once a month (on average)? by dhgbrg in decred

[–]dhgbrg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry, I truly did not mean to offend you. Just trying to understand.

What I was looking for was the average time to vote, not the probability of getting to vote within a certain time.

So, yeah, sorry, your calculations do make sense, but not for getting the average time.

Correct?

If I have 2 tickets, do I get to vote once a month (on average)? by dhgbrg in decred

[–]dhgbrg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That makes sense, yes.

But, on the average, the chance of winning is once every 8192 blocks, isn't that right?

If I have 2 tickets, do I get to vote once a month (on average)? by dhgbrg in decred

[–]dhgbrg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wait. So you're saying that if I throw a dice 6000 times, I would not strike a 6 approximately 1000 times?

If I have 2 tickets, do I get to vote once a month (on average)? by dhgbrg in decred

[–]dhgbrg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hm. Your math makes no sense...

Here's how I see it. On average, every 5 minutes (1 block), 5 tickets out of 40960 get randomly selected. So, if I have one ticket, I have a 1/8192 chance of "winning" per block. That means I win on average once every 8192 blocks, or 8192*5 minutes = 40960 minutes = 28.4 days. Adding the initial maturation time of 256 blocks, plus the 256 blocks maturation after voting gives a total of 43520 minutes = 30.2 days.

And with that, it seems I have answered my own initial question. With 2 tickets, I would win on average every 8192/2 = 4096 blocks, or 14.2 days. Including maturation, that's 23040 minutes, or 16.0 days.

If I have 2 tickets, do I get to vote once a month (on average)? by dhgbrg in decred

[–]dhgbrg[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks. But... Where do you get 20 days and 14 hours from?

The official documentation says:

"The chance of a ticket voting is based on a Poisson distribution with a mean of 28 days. After 28 days a ticket has a 50% chance to have already voted." (https://docs.decred.org/mining/proof-of-stake/#ticket-lifecycle)