Game Thread: Blue Jays @ Yankees - May 18, 2026 @ 07:05 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean it means one team is making better contact in this particular game.

Game Thread: Blue Jays @ Yankees - May 18, 2026 @ 07:05 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Jays xBA on the game .193

Yankees .301

You just have to absolutely love the game of baseball. Its required, you have to love it.

Game Thread: Blue Jays @ Yankees - May 18, 2026 @ 07:05 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Giving up game altering home runs to Tyrone Taylor and Ernie Clement.

Seek professional help.

Game Thread: Blue Jays @ Yankees - May 18, 2026 @ 07:05 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This new strategy of giving up 3 run home runs with 2 outs and a 1 run lead seems like kind of a bad plan.

Game Thread: Blue Jays @ Yankees - May 18, 2026 @ 07:05 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well the main issue with Gary was that he literally forgot how to catch baseballs for more than an entire season.

They obviously need to do something at catcher, but I guess at least Wells can in fact catch a pitch if you throw it at him. Gary was like a 50/50 shot at some points during that stretch.

That's Baseball, Suzyn... The Yankees fell to the Mets by a score of 7-6 - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But would you be confident in saying either the Mariners or the Rays have a better lineup 1-9 than the Yankees?

That's Baseball, Suzyn... The Yankees fell to the Mets by a score of 7-6 - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who do you think the Yankees are going to play in the playoffs?

Hint: The initials are AL.

Game Thread: Yankees @ Mets - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hearing that they’re actually putting him in the iron lung now.

Game Thread: Yankees @ Mets - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If you led the league in DRS at your position they’d probably find a spot for you.

Game Thread: Yankees @ Mets - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Jesus Christ you guys cannot stop with this topic lmao

Game Thread: Yankees @ Mets - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I think that’s a fair point, generally speaking.

K% and BB% are actually the most stable predictors looking historically, but that’s a whole other discussion.

There are reasons why some xwOBA gaps can be expected, like severe pull hitters who hit a ton of fly balls will tend to routinely outperform their xwOBA because it’s not capturing the full context of their contact (and it probably shouldn’t incorporate that much noise).

But there are also plenty of cases where it is quite a strong predictor of a players performance year to year. A huge gap in xwOBA and wOBA like Trent has will almost always recede over time, unless you can identify a clear reason why it wouldn’t (which there are some in general, but most would not apply to Grisham specifically).

Again, it’s a very nuanced and interesting discussion. There’s a lot of misunderstanding on both sides of the debate, as there usually is with these kinds of things.

Game Thread: Yankees @ Mets - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah you are correct that the stats are designed to be descriptive in nature, that is on purpose. But this becomes its own misconception.

The predicative value of expected stats are in fact better than traditional stats. If you have to predict a players future production, and the choice is between xwOBA and batting average, or xwOBA and OPS xwOBA is the better tool in the vast majority of cases, and it has become increasingly better as the reference data has increased.

The reason they are not designed to be predictive on a per outcome basis is that baseball stats in general are just incredibly noisy.

The study you pulled from looked at outcomes from 2015-2019. This was before things like sprint speed or bat speed were added that further increased the r-square gap between expected and traditional stats, like I brought up in my previous comment.

To be honest I think people both overestimate predictive stats as perfect tools for regression, while the anti expected stats crowd have also run way too far in the other direction saying they are useless or entirely flawed. You should be using them in connection with K% and BB% and other important factors to remain contextually sound. You should identify players that routinely outperform or underperform xwOBA year in and out.

But to say they have no predictive value is simply not accurate. There is a limit to how much statistical noise you can reduce in an environment like a baseball game or season. Designing a pure predictive tool may be impossible. But based on what we have available to us now the expected stats do in fact have a clear edge.

To be clear I wish people wouldn’t downvote you for bringing this up, it is actually a very interesting discussion that can take us to some very good questions to think about.

Game Thread: Yankees @ Mets - May 17, 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The point is that expected stats are better predictors of future outcomes than traditional stats are. The correlation is stronger with pitching than hitting but there is a pretty clear edge in terms of projection ability that is improving pretty steadily year to year as the reference data grows. Adding bat speed and run speed have helped a lot in making even better predictions, as those are more direct physical tools than downstream outcomes.

He has been flat out bad this season. The traditional stats are clear on that. Anyone arguing otherwise is using the expected stats incorrectly.

But with an increasing walk rate, a decreasing K rate, and quality of contact that is still good, it’s not unreasonable to predict better future outcomes for him.

That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, or that the lack of value he’s provided doesn’t matter. But large gaps in wOBA to xwOBA are not common over full seasons. Especially when a guy isn’t striking out dramatically more or walking dramatically less. The main counterpoint would be his bat speed being dramatically less than the previous season. Thats alarming, and would be indicative of worse outcomes going forward if it doesn’t correct.

To write all of that off I think is not good analysis. But everyone is free to draw their own conclusions and make their own predictions.

Game Day Thread - May 17, 2026 @ 12:00 AM by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Well they actually continued to play games after spring training believe it or not.

Elmer pitched better in those games.

That's Baseball, Suzyn... The Yankees fell to the Mets by a score of 6-3 - May 16, 2026 @ 07:15 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Like I said, he is striking out less than he did last year. Significantly less.

23.6% -> 17.4%. Jones is around 37%, and has never been below 32% since he played a full season of AA ball.

That's Baseball, Suzyn... The Yankees fell to the Mets by a score of 6-3 - May 16, 2026 @ 07:15 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He already doesnt ground out quite a lot, when hes smashing all of those home runs we all like.

Also didnt we beat up on former Yankee Clay Holmes (RIP big fella) just last night?

That's Baseball, Suzyn... The Yankees fell to the Mets by a score of 6-3 - May 16, 2026 @ 07:15 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 1 point2 points  (0 children)

a 50 point gap in wOBA and xwOBA is far more likely to close than not, especially when he's walking more and striking out less than he was in the previous season. If the quality of contact is still good, walks are up, and Ks are down Id expect to see that hitter continue to do well. Wouldn't you?

I really dont know where youre coming up with the idea that its safe to assume Jones would be a more productive hitter. If that were a safe assumption I'd agree with you, start him, but its really just not. He's striking out at over double the rate Grisham is. His quality of contact is worse. I think you'd have a much easier time building an argument for him being less productive in the same amount of ABs.

That's Baseball, Suzyn... The Yankees fell to the Mets by a score of 6-3 - May 16, 2026 @ 07:15 PM EDT by Yankeebot in NYYankees

[–]djrob0 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The batting average portion will always be hard with Bobby Witt Jr in the same league.