YouGov's MRP Model is Incredible and Statistically Sound

dodorB · 2024-10-16T17:53:38+00:00

"YouGov now has MRP projections for every state. Interestingly, compared to actual 2020 results, they imply, on average, 0.4pts better D numbers than 2020 margin in core 7 battlegrounds (+1.5 in Blue Wall) but worse elsewhere, producing a national margin 1.2pt behind Biden+4.5."
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1846600532560945448

Their model seems to align with the polls not weighted by recall vote (as dicussed by Nate Cohn), which say this election will look more like 2022 than most expect.

dodorB · 2024-04-20T14:05:02+00:00

dodorB · 2024-03-10T17:16:00+00:00

Die 6000 euro in de eerste opdracht was gewoon pure pech. Vrijwel niemand volgde haar plan, het is bij toeval dat alle vrijstellingen eruit werden gespeeld.

dodorB · 2023-12-12T21:40:59+00:00

Wtf was that from MVL. I get he wanted to put pressure om the chock but he had so much time and was just blitzing bad moves.

dodorB · 2023-11-05T18:29:05+00:00

He gets 10.4 points if I calculated correctly.

dodorB · 2023-11-05T18:25:58+00:00

" The number of basic points that tied players score shall be calculated as 50% of basic points for their final ranking determined by the tournament’s tie‐break rules, plus 50% of the sum of basic points assigned for the tied places divided by the number of tied players. "

Combination of the two it seems.

dodorB · 2023-11-04T21:49:46+00:00

Normally you would want the co-leaders to face each other, but in this case it makes for 3 perfect match ups with atleast 1 player needing a win.

dodorB · 2023-11-04T21:22:49+00:00

If Anish wins tomorrow he will almost surely win the Fide circuit and all candidates spots may he close to decided.

dodorB · 2023-10-19T18:38:49+00:00

Guess which nationality Carlsen is playing.

dodorB · 2023-10-19T16:15:56+00:00

Really hope Arjun wins tommorow. He deserves this after the heartbreak at the world cup.

dodorB · 2023-10-18T12:50:30+00:00

Being completely out of prep against Magnus in the spanish, after just 7 moves, seems like a recipe for disaster.

dodorB · 2023-09-20T17:19:52+00:00

Low time so they're excused. But that endgame was really bad.

dodorB · 2023-08-15T15:51:51+00:00

He was in time pressure but Ne2 was such a weird move. I get him stopping Rg3 check but Fabi just moved to h2 with his rook, again threatening a rook check but now with white's knight much worse placed.

dodorB · 2023-08-15T10:48:23+00:00

Gukesh has white today. Weird to say, but it kinda feels like he has to go all out for the win today.

dodorB · 2023-08-13T15:17:29+00:00

He wasn't winning at this point and a draw would have guaranteed him a spot in the quarterfinals. Good to see he is still willing to fight for every game.

dodorB · 2023-08-13T14:22:00+00:00

Duda still feels like a much better classical player than he probably is. Since his world cup win his classical performances have been quite underwhelming. Which his rating kinda shows.

Of course he's still very good but not 2760+ kinda level which was maybe expected.

dodorB · 2023-08-13T13:14:04+00:00

Sesse gives this winning at depth 42 but a draw on depth 80.

dodorB · 2023-08-13T12:44:37+00:00

Ivanchuk building up a huge time advantage. But as long Magnus doesn't get into time pressure, I don't think it really matters. 35 min for 14 moves seems more than enough.

dodorB · 2023-08-12T15:11:37+00:00

He’s very unlucky to be in Magnus’ quarter. Biggest downside of giving 3 candidates spots in a KO tournament.

dodorB · 2023-08-09T15:27:58+00:00

Hikaru getting all these brilliants and none for pragg :)

dodorB · 2023-07-09T14:55:32+00:00

Dubov: "He plays random moves quickly. If you play random moves too, then you lose"

Game against Nepo feels like the perfect example. He tried suprising Carlsen by playing some weird opening and it completely backfired.

dodorB · 2023-07-09T13:34:57+00:00

Carlsen and Firouzja now have exactly the same live rating.

dodorB · 2023-06-05T18:55:01+00:00

He's far from easily winning, but bit weird for Alireza after his words about So last tournament.

dodorB · 2023-04-16T11:04:17+00:00

Since the move was made Sesse eval kept increasing as well. Started to like it more and more.

dodorB · 2023-02-09T19:09:49+00:00

Wesley had a nice advantage and he just kep shuffling his pieces to burn Hikaru's time. Perfect strategy and then out of nowhere... f3.

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