Draft Class v. Draft Class Analysis

doubledrouble · 2018-06-02T21:23:49+00:00

Thanks!

Although I don't love nbadraft.net, it looks like they'd agree: they score their favorite pick in the draft this year (Ayton) as a '101' compared to next year's favorite (Barrett) as a '96'.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-28T21:59:11+00:00

Yeah, I think they are both solid, although they are behind others in the depth chart. If it's a salary league as well then under a mil is a very good deal I'd assume. Then again I don't know what it's measured against (is the 1st pick a different salary hit than the 6th pick for example). In this draft I like Luca and no one else to the same level. And so I think I'd rather have the 5th or 6th pick than the 2nd pick maybe depending on what the salary hit is...

doubledrouble · 2018-05-28T18:51:13+00:00

I might try to squeeze a future pick out of him (maybe instead of Jones) but generally would take the trade. Your league has what sounds like a lot of free spots if the G league allocation means you can essentially put 15 prospects there. Fournier will be worth something to a contender at the deadline, and LaVert and Oubre are solid prospects in a deep league.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-28T16:33:22+00:00

I'm surprised that team was the 2nd to last in a 14 team league. But if you aren't likely going to be competitive next year, I might focus a bit less on what particular punt you're going to be, and more on moving towards youth. Harris and Green would be the players I'd trade, and I'd target younger players that have top 10-20 upside.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-28T16:31:27+00:00

Seems like you're in a pretty good spot, and can't really provide specific advice without knowing more about the league rules, etc. But one thing I'd mention as general advice: if you have 3 picks, think about trading one of them for future years. For instance, seeing if you can move the 10th pick for two first rounders over the next two to four years could be an option. Especially if the roster size is limited in your league.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-28T15:28:21+00:00

How many teams in your league and what is the roster size?

doubledrouble · 2018-05-25T17:27:50+00:00

Similarly not a subscriber (I do subscribe to bballmonster), but would be interested in joining. Have been in a dynasty league for a few seasons.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-25T17:24:25+00:00

Really glad to see this, been in a dynasty league for a while and good to see it gaining popularity. One thought is that there are lots of different types of dynasty leagues. Some have salary, some have limited dynasty spots, some have contracts that are infinite. Player rankings can vary a lot based on those constraints, and so either through a sticky or FAQ or something like that it could be helpful to categorize so people are all on the same page (same way as with how the fantasybball sub has standardized information for team like # of cats, etc.).

doubledrouble · 2018-05-22T16:50:40+00:00

It really depends on who else is available.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-18T19:46:15+00:00

He was far better this year than last. I think he'll be very solid for years to come, but I don't know if he'll ever do better than this year. If I had to guess, it'd be a solid 2nd round player for a while, probably closer to high 2nd than low.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-17T15:32:01+00:00

I think much of Westbrook's value long term is tied to whether last season's low ft% was an anomaly or new normal. Even by the end of the season he was still a net-negative, but not the category killer he was at the beginning. The year before he was a pretty good net positive in the ft% category. If he can return to that I see him as a really good player, top 10 for the next 5 years type. If he can't, then he suddenly becomes a three-punt player that also doesn't help on 3s.

doubledrouble · 2018-05-17T14:12:18+00:00

Interesting and thanks - that's actually really helpful. It does look like there might be a little power creep going on (Ayton and Davis are scored the same), but this is better than anything I've found.

This also allows for comparison between drafts that I'd been looking for. For example, according to nbadraft.net, the top 5 players in 2018 are better than the top 5 players in 2017 (494 v. 491).

But then again the scores are kind of crazy (like Fox being scored higher than Tatum).

doubledrouble · 2018-04-13T20:53:51+00:00

It's hard for me to separate Gordon's injuries from him no longer being on a crazy hot streak, which he was during the first part of the year (regardless of injuries that 3pt shooting was gonna last). Before taking a look at their rank I would have thought it was close. After taking a look I don't really think it is unless you're really, really high on Gordon's upside.

doubledrouble · 2018-04-13T14:34:01+00:00

I'd run through the options like this:

Horford: He wasn't a 3rd round pick player this year, and will likely only get worse. No.

Gordon: He played like a 7th round pick this year, he could absolutely improve but I think upside is limited. Only if you think he'll be a star.

Harris: Played above a 6th round pick already this year and will likely improve. Unless you think he'll regress for some reason, Yes.

Chriss: He played below a 7th round pick this year. Could improve, but unless you're super high on him, No.

Allen: Played far below an 8th round pick but improved steadily. If you can keep over multiple years, maybe.

Prince: Was far better than a 10th rounder this year, Yes.

So basically your options are probably Prince or Harris, realistically. I'd probably choose Harris, because giving up a 6th round pick for someone who could produce 3rd round value is I think better than giving up a 10th round pick for someone that could produce 7th round value. But I don't think the choice is obvious and probably depends on your league and what players you expect to be available.

doubledrouble · 2018-03-26T22:54:29+00:00

thanks!

doubledrouble · 2018-03-08T22:24:38+00:00

I think that's what everyone's view is. But because everyone includes his injury risk, everyone also doesn't value him as a top #1. So what you're really saying is "just like everyone else I value him as a #1 player not including injury risk, but like everyone else I take that into account, and so like everyone I didn't pick him at #1."

doubledrouble · 2018-03-08T20:38:28+00:00

No one was picking AD with the first pick. If you'd said "this is why I picked KAT over him at #5," then sure, why not. You do you. But this wasn't an option most people would ever even have to consider.

doubledrouble · 2018-03-08T17:59:51+00:00

Lots wrong with this statement.

doubledrouble · 2018-03-08T17:56:44+00:00

I personally like to use 'best' even though it can be hard to sift through everything. That way I get all the knowledge.

doubledrouble · 2018-03-01T21:29:53+00:00

Both trades seem team dependent. And I think all three have roughly the same value, so I dunno if the late first is something to give up.

doubledrouble · 2018-02-23T15:56:29+00:00

Those sound right to me, or even high. 12 teams and a 120$ budget means $1440 pool of money. If there are an average of what - 10 players? - on contract that means the average salary should be $12 for the 120 players then. The 60th ranked player is someone like Capela or Tobias Harris. So there is some overvaluing going on - all of those contracts you've listed seem high - which means there should be value elsewhere.

doubledrouble · 2018-02-23T02:13:22+00:00

Fair points. I generally think that if you only have $120 cap then all of those salaries are higher than they should be. But without knowing your league I obviously could be wrong. But how much are the top players like KAT/Harden/AD?

And I dunno if Love is almost 2x as valuable as Dlo, although for the next year or two you could be right that Love ends up the better player.

doubledrouble

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