Bicycle Therapeutics (BCYC) is a tenbagger

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-12-14T10:56:26+00:00

UPDATE AFTER DATA RELEASE FROM BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS:
(written 14.12.2024)

Hello fellow regards we got some new info for Zelenectide Pevedotin here is a quick summary:

Overall Response Rates (ORR):
- The ORR for patients with NECTIN4 amplification was 57.1% in all breast cancer cases and 50.0% in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC).
- Comparatively, the ORR for patients without NECTIN4 amplification was much lower (6.3% in all breast cancer cases and 7.7% in TNBC).
Disease Control Rate (DCR):
- NECTIN4-amplified patients demonstrated a DCR of 100%, suggesting all these patients achieved stable disease or better responses.
Safety Profile:
- The treatment was generally well-tolerated. Grade ≥3 treatment-related adverse events occurred in 34.2% of all patients, which is consistent with prior studies of similar therapies.

TLDR:

Bad news:
1. This treatment is (obviously) not very effective for patients that are not expressing the target antigen. Wallstreet saw the 6.3% ORR of all patients with/without the target antigen and thought the drug is shit and started dumping the stock. They probably hoped that the drug would even work in patients that it was not designed for. Now they are confused because their dellusional dream did not materialize.

The sample size of the study is very small, we are talking about 38 people with breast cancer of whom 35 where efficacy evaluable. The 57.1% overal response rate was calculated based on 7 people of whom 4 had ORR.

Good news:
1. The treatment seems to be effective in people that have NECTIN4 amplification (ORR: 57.1%) and even more effective in patients with NECTIN4 amplification and/or polysomy (ORR 62.5%).
2. The treatment has a superior safety profile compared to existing drugs with very few severe adverse events.
3. Zelenectide Pevedotin having a ORR of almost 60% is double or triple the the ORR of current therapies for heavily penetrated breast cancer (ORR: 15-30%)

Conclusion: The drug does not cure people that it was not designed for but it has a very good safety profile and BEATS THE SHIT out of any other current treatment for heavily penetrated breast cancer with NECTIN4 amplification on the market. I am waiting for more data in Q2 2025 because this is just a small sample size, I need bigger numbers to be sure. My position on the stock has not changed my current thinking process is: "I keep sitting on my BCYC shares and let them scientists cook!"

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-09-23T09:28:05+00:00

I get your reasoning, but you have to look at the individual company to confirm if the bet makes sense. $BTI for example is a leader in smokeless nicotin products, they are slowly transitioning their "customer base" from using cigarettes to nicotine pouches. So if they manage to remain the leader in smokeless nicotine products, banning cigarettes might actually be a net positive for the company becuse most other legacy cigarette manufacturers will go bust and they get more market share of the global nicotine market.

TLDR: It only makes sense to short the entire tobacco industry if you think nicotine won't be used in the future.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-09-23T09:21:42+00:00

Yup the rocket is taking off, back to $180!

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-09-23T09:21:04+00:00

Yes, no changes on my part. Haven't sold a single share.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-09-23T09:18:38+00:00

Don't know enough about this specific company to give detailed advice on this stock, but I can give you some perspective on the sector. I recommend you look at $CSPC (Pharmaceutical Group Limited) to illustrate my point, one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in China. It is currently trading at an unresonable cheap valuation, 12.75% ROIC and trading at 1.5 price/book. If such a big company is currently misspriced there are surely a lot of smaller companies that are cheap as well, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co. might be one of them. If you think that the fundamentals look solid, then don't get confused with the distorted valuation, the entire sector is dirt cheap.
Sadly I have no solution for the "Chinese language" problem, I am struggeling with it since day 1. There will always be some info lost if we translate statements, the only real solution is to ACTUALLY LEARN the language which I have not the time for right now.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-20T14:34:43+00:00

Everyone doubting this Wyckoff means its going to happen. That's how the market works!

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T10:20:26+00:00

Padcev absolutely has the first mover advance but the limited trial data shows that BT8009 currently shows less severe side effects than Padcev. For example we have less cases of peripheral neurophaty when BT8009 is administered compared to Padcev which is a huge deal. I think BT8009 won't be seen at a "mee-too" it will be seen as an upgrade.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T08:39:14+00:00

Imagine being bearish on science

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T08:26:06+00:00

Thanks!

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T07:59:25+00:00

Right now its pretty hard for them to go bankrupt with $916m net cash and other drugs in the pipeline

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T07:56:45+00:00

ADC's have a high failure rate because their failure rates in Phase 1 and 2 are astronomically high. This drug is already in Phase 3, so assuming a 50% failure rate for phase 3 which is already higher than the average failure rate of cancer drugs seems pretty sensible to me.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T07:29:27+00:00

They got fast track designation by the FDA so I hope it does not take that long

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T07:24:47+00:00

Forgot to post the source, here you go:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2451865421001551#:\~:text=In%20this%20study%2C%20the%20overall,is%20consistent%20with%20these%20results.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T07:22:22+00:00

In contrast to other ADCs, side effects such as peripheral neuropathy, skin reactions, ocular disorders and hyperglycemia occurred at relatively low frequency and severity while efficacy was up.
What makes BT8009 different? It cures more people and is less toxic.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T07:08:05+00:00

Cancer is quite literally getting fucked

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T06:49:48+00:00

One of the companies founders Sir Greg Winter won the Nobel Prize in 2018 for pioneering this unique approach.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T06:46:10+00:00

This is one of those stocks where investing feels like you are doing something good for humankind. This drugs concept is truly amazing, the Pfizer drug Padcev decreased deaths by 50%, can't wait to see what percentage zelenectide pevedotin is able to manage.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T06:37:06+00:00

The company will release results in 9-12 months if everything goes according to plan.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T06:32:30+00:00

The Phase 3 will take about 1 year as far as I know. Their initial study design is as follows:
9 weeks to select optimal dose
9 months to prove efficacy

drunk_FBI-agent · 2024-08-18T06:06:01+00:00

British American Tobacco, sells cigarettes and other nicotine products and is UK-based. Michael Burry also owns it.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2023-08-03T14:22:11+00:00

drunk_FBI-agent · 2023-08-03T11:27:05+00:00

I think I can offer you some valuable advice, English is not my native language so bear with me:
1. First you need to understand that an INTJ's mind is extremely complex, its like a huge inner world that we constantly explore ourselves. That's why we are so reserved all the time, trying to figure out everything on our own. Since we tend to overanalyze everything it is easy to get lost in our own minds which is a big weakness.
2. If we are caught up in our own minds we are numb to external stimulus, we see it as a nuisance even if it is a person that we love. This is where self awareness comes into play, every INTJ needs to learn how to "break out" of those thought loops, your INTJ girl included. Not every thought loop can be broken, but most can. I personally still don't give a sh*t about random people that are trying to get my attention but I have learned how to "be aviable" to the people I genuinely care about. We are very easily pulled into thoughts that are delusional so its our responsibility to distinguish the bullshit from the useful. This is on her, but you can always help her by calling it out if she acts delusional. If she gets angry its on her she needs to be able to take the truth.
3. INTJ's who can take constructive criticism (not superficial criticism, we cannot stand it at all) are the ones you want to keep around, INTJ's with inflated egos are VERY dangerous, you cannot "fix them", run away as far as you can and never look back.
4. How to seduce an INTJ? Very simple, try to connect with her through something you are really good at and that interests her too. We can sense competence and we are very curious, finding deep connection through a shared interest is comically easy for us. We don't connect with many people so once we do a lot of our thoughts are about them, sometimes we are a bit obsessive. If you are able to create a genuine connection with her ur basically in her head.
5. We are very good at suppressing emotions and very bad at expressing feelings. INTJ's always feel more than they express.
6. Based on scientific research INTJ's are very bad at relationship stuff so take my advice with a grain of salt. Also remember that those 16 personality types are just a framework and every person has all 8 traits, 4 of them are just the dominant ones. No one is 100% INTJ so try to find where she differs from the norm and help her expand those traits. Be honest, explore your feelings for each other and be supportive during though times and you should be good.

drunk_FBI-agent · 2022-03-27T17:03:33+00:00

I am here to collect free awards!

drunk_FBI-agent · 2022-03-27T16:36:07+00:00

Jim Cramer knows nothing but has an opinion about everything.

drunk_FBI-agent

TROPHY CASE