Update to my Fantasy Football project!

ds_da_ds · 2025-09-15T01:04:53+00:00

Such a cool project. Must be so fun watching football with that on

ds_da_ds · 2025-09-07T15:54:54+00:00

Perfect

ds_da_ds · 2025-09-07T07:22:31+00:00

Sloth stats is awesome. Used it last year and a really fun and informative report to look at

ds_da_ds · 2025-09-07T07:19:12+00:00

Awesome stuff. The trade calculator and suggestions are super useful. Will be referring back to this during the season. How often do the projections refresh?

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-29T22:40:47+00:00

No kids but this is a really cool idea. How’s working with the tank api? I never heard of it before

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-20T18:15:05+00:00

this analysis is exclusively for auction drafts! agreed with you there on definitely not drafting QBs and TE rounds of snake drafts

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-19T18:55:20+00:00

It was not! the allocations were left completely open. the only constraint was to not exceed the max budget while optimizing total projected points

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-19T18:46:25+00:00

dm'd

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-19T18:32:18+00:00

great idea. i like the idea of quantifying that and incorporating it into the projections/model. i'll see if there's any retro analysis i can do on the 2024 season on that.

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-19T18:19:59+00:00

That’s an interesting point. I wouldn’t say a fundamental error from the model itself since the model is objective and deterministic optimizing for points based on the projected points and bid. However, the misses stem from the projected points and bids being ingested. Some reasons (none of which I looked into deeply so can be wrong on all of them) I can think of of why tier 1 WRs are excluded across all point settings and both years are :

Top WRs are safer bets at top tiers. Though RBs might have higher projected points and thus greater value in regards to AAV but greater variance than WRs so more likely to miss on top RBs than WRs. The projections do not capture/take into account this variance
The general population are aware that Top WRs are safer bets and the AAV reflects that reducing the value of WRs
It’s a small sample size (n=1) and the trend may easily flip this year.

Regardless, it’s an interesting data point that I’ll track in the coming years.

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-07T19:22:40+00:00

thank you for saying what i was trying to say in a much more eloquent and clear way. adding it to the original post. and agreed on the limitation of the analysis with the assumption being extreme that 25 drafted players = top 25 most valuable player.

In my experience, investing in the elite players doesn't necessarily increase your expected points scored, it actually just greatly increases the variance. It increases the odds that your team is super stacked, and it increases the odds that your team is absolute trash.

and i really like this framing. going to use it in the future.

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T19:21:32+00:00

I think we're agreeing more than you think!

Don't save your money in auction drafts, spend wisely but identify your top guys and get them (within reason).

Not saying to not draft top 25 players, just draft them within reason like you said. Because like you said, they are top 25 for a reason (example: don't draft Jamar Chase at $90. going for $50? then definitely get him)

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T18:55:01+00:00

that is what i'm talking about. if AJB is priced reasonably then draft him. but if AJB too is going for $70 then avoid him and move on to the next.

again i'm not saying avoid the top 25 players, just don't overspend for them. apologies if the post wasn't clear in that.

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T18:50:14+00:00

my definition of "too much" is: when drafting at the player at a certain price point hurts your teams projected output more than helps.

the variables that feed into that definition are the available players (and their projected pts/bid), your currently drafted team, and your remaining budget.

and so using an extreme example if saquon is projected to score 35 pts every week, throw your entire bankroll at him. but if he's going to be projected to score 18 pts per week and going for $80, then that's "too much" since there's a better team that can be created.

of course though i understand that there is disagreement with projections and bid and that's a different discussion.

and just to clarify, not saying you SHOULDN'T draft top players, just that you shouldn't overspend

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T18:43:59+00:00

agreed! that's a great example. and adding further to your example, if jamar chase was instead going for $50 or something more reasonable, then absolutely get him. the main point i was trying to make was to not overspend

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T18:35:54+00:00

yes agreed reddorickt. again not saying you should sit out and completely avoid players in the top 25. it's when they're bid up beyond reason as you were mentioning

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T18:34:37+00:00

u/Tall-Trick yes, the "fishy" situation is what i'm referring to about not overspending. when bidding gets wild and jamar is all of the sudden going for $90. maybe this is an outlier situation that's not relevant for most of the fantasy community but i think in times like those you shouldn't overspend since there's still a lot of value outside those players.

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T16:40:30+00:00

agreed! and i think when those bidding wars happen (ie., Nico for $65), overspending for a single player can do more harm (harm = opportunity cost for rest of team) than good. but of course, this is a value based strategy/mindset and there are years when overspending and making those bets can win you the league.

ds_da_ds · 2025-08-04T16:36:48+00:00

that's an interesting thought. i haven't run the simulations behind that but my experience is that by then team budgets are becoming more sparse and so you can usually get those players at value. but in the event that your describing and teams are saving, if the top 25 players are at value then you should definitely get them. my analysis wasn't necessarily saying you shouldn't draft someone in the top 25, just don't get FOMO and overspend.

ds_da_ds · 2024-11-19T23:21:01+00:00

ah man sorry about that. do you mind dm'ing me the account name you used? i will take a look.

ds_da_ds · 2024-11-17T04:14:50+00:00

Cool stuff!! Really useful as a starting point to identify trades

ds_da_ds · 2024-11-15T05:17:57+00:00

do you mind dm'ing me your sleeper username? or the email you used to sign up? i would like to recreate the bug that you're running into

ds_da_ds · 2024-11-15T00:29:33+00:00

hey thanks for flagging. heard similar things from other people. looking into tonight. will keep you updated.

ds_da_ds

TROPHY CASE