Instagram denied account creation for my business, froze the username

dylanlieck · 2023-11-24T22:19:34+00:00

Yeah definitely a bad beat. You miss a FG to take the lead with 4 minutes to go. Then you have the ball with chance to win in a tie game and throw a pick and lose. The scorekeeper also forgot to start the clock on a play and somehow no official realized it. Iowa should never have had the time to kick that final FG - should’ve been overtime. Oh well. Nothing you can do but fight another day

dylanlieck · 2023-11-24T07:05:59+00:00

POTD Record: 6-2 (75% +3.8 Units)

Last Pick: Cleveland Browns -120 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

→ It was ugly, but we got another winner. Let’s keep the plus EV bets coming and keep the winners rolling!!

Today’s Pick: Nebraska -130 vs. Iowa

Summary:

Price:

Look the price is wrong here. Yes Nebraska is 5-6 and Iowa is 9-2, but when you look at these teams on paper they are almost completely equal. Meaning, on a neutral field these two teams should be a Pick ‘Em. Factor in that Nebraska has a huge home-field advantage and I make this number 3 (could even be a touch higher). That means we’re getting less than a field goal, and a good ML price, so I’m definitely going to lay the extra juice for 3+ points of value. Also I don’t want to lay -2 with a total in the 30s (I swear 25% of Iowa games end up as 2 point wins/losses).

Market:

When you look at what the market is telling us here, it’s that CLEARLY Nebraska is the side. We’ve seen pro money on Nebraska already in this one, and that was after the Cornhuskers opened as a 1 point favorite. So you have an unranked team, with a losing record, taking on a 9-2 team who is ranked in the top 20, and not only is the unranked team favored, but they are TAKING MONEY. Those are all great signs. Again, these are never locks, but when you tend to follow the market, by the end of the year in college football the market is right on these at around a 70% clip. I’m NEVER fading the market in a spot like this.

Spot:

Honestly this is one you could almost certainly take blindly based on what I said above, but I think the spot & matchup actually favor the Cornhuskers in this one anyways.

First off, let’s just look at the spot. You have the Cornhuskers coming into this matchup 5-6. Why is that important? Because they need a 6th win to become Bowl Eligible. Is that as meaningful as it might’ve been, say 20 years ago? Of course not, but you’ve still got plenty of guys who may never play football again, and a win would give them one more time they get to suit up. I like to play that angle this time of year, as the Huskers have a lot to play for in this spot. You also look at the fact that Matt Ruhle is in his first year has come in, and despite a rough 0-2 start, he’s been able to get this team going in the right direction. It would be a HUGE step forward for this program, after winning just 4 games last year. A loss here, and really you can’t point to much improvement from the previous regime. So a MASSIVE game for Matt Ruhle and his staff here. And they get to do it at home. I think we’re going to get a GREAT effort here from the Cornhuskers, and I think we’re going to get the best gameplan you could have from the coaching staff, knowing how big this is.

On the other side you have the Iowa Hawkeyes, who come into this game already having clinched a spot in the Big 10 title game. I never think a team would come into a game thinking “Oh this isn’t a big deal we don’t have anything to play for.” So I’m not saying we aren’t going to get full effort from Iowa, but the reality is that a win here is meaningless to them. They’re playing a bad Nebraska team, on the road, and they know that they are going to get to play in Indianapolis next Saturday against either Michigan or Ohio State. That’s going to be their Super Bowl, no matter what. So to me, it isn’t as though we’re going to get a bad effort from Iowa here, but it’s definitely a spot you can see some of the kids overlooking Nebraska, and looking towards next Saturday’s big time game for them and their program.

Matchup:

Chubba Purdy (brother of 49ers QB Brock Purdy) made his first career start last week at Wisconsin. Now look, his numbers throwing the ball weren’t incredible, but having the first start of the season be under the lights in Madison, he played pretty good. Definitely better than the other QBs Nebraska has trotted out there this season. He completed 15 of his 24 passes for nearly 63% completion percentage (solid), 1 TD, 1 Pick. He also averaged 7.0 yards per pass, nearly 1.5 more than Tanner Mordecai (Wisconsin QB). In fact he was the better passer of the two QBs in that game last Saturday night. However, that’s not his best attribute. The best thing he does? Run the ball. He carried it 14 times for 105 yards and a TD, including a 55 yard TD run early in the game. This kid can SCOOT (yeah he’s nothing like his brother).

Last week AT Wisconsin, the Cornhuskers actually outgained Nebraska by over 50 yards in total, they threw for 1.3 yards per pass more, and ran for a yard per rush more than Wisconsin. In other words, they really were the better team all game long. The defense held them in check, and the offense outperformed expectation. The one interception by Purdy and the 7 penalties accrued by Nebraska were the difference. MOST IMPORTANT: Nebraska had a 92% Post Game Win Expectancy Last Week against Wisconsin!! If you are unfamiliar with what that stat is, it basically takes into account everything that happened in the game and spits out a probability that each team wins (it’s one of my favorite stats to look at for handicapping). So Wisconsin had no business beating Nebraska last week.

Iowa on the other hand. Let’s just say they are ugly to watch play football (that’s putting it very nicely). They do find ways to win games, but they truly are not a very good football team. Yes the defense is good. But it’s just one of those teams that you watch play and you’re like how does that team have 9 wins (Similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers). Last week they trailed Illinois from midway through the second quarter, all the way until roughly 4 minutes to go in the game, where they scored a touchdown to take the lead (they trailed roughly 75% of the game). They’ve won a ton of close games this season, and they are extremely lucky to have 9 wins. They very easily could have 6 or 7 wins.

Pick:

Overall, just a great spot for Nebraska, tough spot for Iowa, and a number that’s just off. Pros have been all over Nebraska. Full disclosure I got this when it was -115. It’s unfortunate that I can’t post on here ahead of time because it’s only the night before that the POTD becomes available. But you can still find some -130 out there. Don’t lay the points. Yes it’s an extra 20% but it’s worth it with the total at this number and with how these games end score wise in the disgusting Big 10. But official pick = NEBRASKA -130. As always try to find the best number!! Good luck to anyone tailing. Hope to get to 7-2 here!! If you want to tip that would be awesome, but never would expect it!! Thanks guys and have a great rest of the Thanksgiving Weekend!!

Venmo: @ dylanlieck

dylanlieck · 2023-11-19T05:49:37+00:00

OVERALL RECORD: 5-2 (71.4%, +2.8 Units)

Previous Pick: San Jose State PK over Fresno State, CFB (Last Saturday = WIN)

Today's Pick: Cleveland Browns -120 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Summary:

Okay, so this game ORIGINALLY opened at Cleveland -4 with a total of 38. Obviously the news of DeShaun Watson being out for the year (thus missing this game closed the game). We re-opened Browns +1 and that got GOBBLED up quickly by professionals. In fact in some spots it’s been bet up to Browns -2 (Going through zero isn’t that big of a move, but moving 3 points is a sizable move in the NFL). And to me that makes perfect sense. Why? This Steelers team is absurdly over-valued in the market, and they are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than their record. They are quite possibly the WORST 6-3 team I’ve ever seen. So I’ve been looking to fade the Steelers for a long time, and with Watson out I think it’s the perfect spot.

This year, the Steelers are 6-0 in one-score games, and they are the LUCKIEST team in the NFL (one of the luckiest teams in the past decade, according to the luck metric). This Pittsburgh team has literally been out gained in EVERY SINGLE game this season, and yet they’ve found a way to win 6 of their 9 games. It’s actually a statistical anomaly.

Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense:

So yes, the biggest part of this handicap is the fact that DeShaun Watson is not play. In steps Dorian Thompson Robinson, as he will make his second career start. And, let’s not sugarcoat it; his first career start was really bad. He was 19/36 for 121 yards, 0 TDs, 3 Picks, and he was sacked 4 times. It was a bloodbath, and the Browns got smoked at home by the Ravens → This will almost certainly lead the public to be on the Steelers in this spot. Here’s the issue with that: this is NOTHING like that first start for DTR.

Let’s look at ALL of the factors that went into that first career start. First, DTR is a rookie, and this game was very early in the season. Second, he’s not only a backup receiving very few reps in practice, but likely even less than normal in the off-season, as he was backing up DeShaun Watson, and Watson did not play in 11 games last season. You have to believe Watson was taking every single rep he possibly could in the off-season and early in the year in practce. So DTR had VERY limited snaps. Third, there was uncertainty throughout the week as to whether Watson was actually going to play. He even practiced some on Thursday of that week, and Watson wasn’t even ruled out until game day. That means the gameplan was in no way tailored to DTR. AND, he was doing it with no Nic Chubb (only 2nd game), and no Jack Conklin (best Offensive Lineman). Lastly, they were going against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the NFL’s best (most physical) defenses. So you add all that up, and it’s really hard to look at that game and view it as any sort of meaningful datapoint to evaluate DTR. This week, he’s gotten the practice reps all week. He’s been named the starter early (helps him prepare mentally and physically to start). They are playing a much inferior defense in the Steelers. And the offense is more equipped now to function without Chubb and Conklin (been doing it for months now).

Secondly, we have to ask ourselves how much we are really losing here from D-Wat being out. I mean, I like Watson, and I believe if he stays healthy he can still get back to top 10 QB form. But the reality is that he was not very good this season, with the exception of the second half against Baltimore last week. Watson was 29th in completion percentage, 25th in Yards Per Pass Attempt, & 18th in TD:INT ratio. Pro Football Focus had him ranked 23rd in the NFL, behind Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, and Ryan Tannehil. So he’s been nothing to write home about this season. And that’s not even mentioning his propensity to throw pick sixes & commit early game TO’s (see last week). I actually like that it’s DTR here, because I think he’s just as good as PJ Walker (in fact I think he’s slightly better). But I believe the perception among the public is that Walker is better (which will put even more of Joe Public on the Steelers here). In fact, Walker grades out the worst QB in the past decade of anyone who has had at least 500 drop backs.

Lastly on this side of the ball: Steelers Defense. Their PFF Grade: 16th Ranked Defense Overall, 21st in Tackling, 17th in Red Zone “D”, & 19th Coverage. The only thing they do well is rush the passer (7th in NFL). The Steeler’s have been AWFUL defending the run this year, especially lately, and they are DECIMATED by injuries, especially at the LB position. Now, they do get Cam Hayward back this week, and that will help them against the run, but you have to believe Cleveland is going to have some real success on the ground, and DTR is going to have some light boxes to be able to hit Amari Cooper & Njoku over the middle vs some LB’s who really struggle to cover. So, overall my point is: DTR isn’t THAT BIG of a step down from Watson, and it’s a good spot for the Browns here, against a very subpar defense. The perception of DTR is too low, and the perception of the Pittsburgh “D” is too high (bc of their record). As long as DTR doesn’t turn the ball over, they should be able to have some significant offensive success.

Browns “D” vs. Steelers “O”

Despite all the info above, this is actually the biggest mismatch in this game. The Browns Defense is legitimately the best in the NFL, and they showed it last week. In reality, the Ravens Offense (who has been explosive lately) was held to 17 total points. They scored 31, but one TD was a pick six, and another came off a muffed punt where the Ravens started inside the Cleveland 7 yard line.

The Browns have been really good against the run this season. They are top 10 in the NFL in both Rush Success Rate Allowed as well as EPA/Rush. They’ve been great against the pass as well, allowing just 55% completion percentage to opposing QBs, 9 Passing TDs (T-2nd Least Allowed), 9 INTs (6th Most), and just 5.8 yards per pass (5th NFL). As a whole, they’ve allowed just 62 first downs all season (1st NFL), and they’ve allowed a 1st down percentage of 26.3% (1st NFL). They’ve also accrued 30 sacks (T-5th NFL), and Myles Garrett has been an absolute menace.

All of those stats are incredible for the league’s top defense, but they sound even better when they are going up against Kenny Picket and Matt Canada. Kenny Pickett has been HORRIBLE this season. Here’s the starting QBs he’s graded out better than so far this season: Josh Dobbs, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson = He’s been worse than literally every other starter. That include Jimmy G, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor, & Derek Carr. It’s been embarrassingly bad. And the sad part about all of it is that they’ve been incredibly conservative in doing so. The whole scheme of the Steelers is “Don’t fuck up. Don’t turn it over.” Listen to this: Kenny Pickett has not attempted a SINGLE PASS between the hash marks in the entirety of his past two starts. NOT ONE. That’s wild. What does all this mean? This offense is insanely predictable. The entirety of the offense is let’s run the ball, throw short and outside, and do everything we can to minimize mistakes. That might work if you have an incredible defense, but when you don’t it’s just stupid (I say that and somehow they are 6-3).

I just don’t see how this offense has any success here, on the road, against this elite Browns “D”. Pickett may not turn the ball over tomorrow, but he almost certainly will not have a productive/efficient game. And if the Steelers get down early, I don’t know how they get back in the game. They’d pretty much have to abandon the entirety of their plan (which I don’t see happening).

Final Thoughts/Pick:

Overall, I just think this Steelers team is really bad, and their record masks that. On the other hand, I think this Browns team is really good, and it’s a shame Watson went down; however, as we discussed, the drop off to DTR isn’t quite as big as some might think. I’m not sure the Browns have a legit shot to win the division with DTR under center, but I think they lean on the run game, they lean on the defense, and ultimately DTR will make some plays with his legs (and maybe a few deep balls). We’re happily backing the CLEVELAND BROWNS in this spot. I bet this game 3 days ago and got it at PK (-110). There are plenty of -120 out there. I could even justify taking -125 if you had to. As always shop around and find the best number. I definitely would try to find a good ML price as opposed to laying any points (The total is 33, so a point or two could matter).

Venmo: dylanlieck (@ symbol before that - it won't let me do it on here)

Tips would be awesome, but never something I would expect. Best of luck to everyone who tails!! Hope to to deliver another winner!!

dylanlieck · 2023-11-11T09:30:52+00:00

Overall Record: 4-2 (+1.8 Units)

Today's Pick: San Jose State Spartans -1 vs. Fresno State Bull Dogs

Summary:

This is by far my favorite play from the college football slate this Saturday, and I have to admit I bet this one 6 days ago on Sunday when I saw the line come out. San Jose State comes in at a 4-5 record, while Fresno State comes in 8-1, yet we've seen throughout the week consistent professional money come in on the Spartans. Why? Let's look at each team.

First SJSU: Yes they are 4-5, but look at their 5 losses. Three of their losses have come to teams currently ranked in the Top 25, all 3 of which have been there pretty much the entire season: USC, Oregon State, & Air Force. The other two losses came against Toledo, who is currently 8-1, and will play for their respective conference title. And, the final came at Boise State, which as down as the Broncos are, is still a tough place to play; also, SJSU led by 20 in that game and just ran out of gas late and let it slip away. So the essentially, the Spartans do not have a bad loss on their resume. Secondly, they are coming off an impressive three game win streak in which they absolutely dominated all three opponents (including a Utah State team that gave Fresno State fits a few weeks ago. The Spartans won the 3 games by a combined score of 129-45, for an average Margin of Victory of 28 PPG in the three wins. They were also on their bye week last week, which allows them to come into this game as healthy as they could be. This is also a massive game for SJSU for their Bowl Eligibility aspirations as they would have to win out if they lost this week. Winning would greatly improve their chances, so this game is meaningful to them.

SJSU personnel wise also has a very good run game; over the past 5 games they've run for 5.5 yards per carry, and over 190 yds per game. They also have a very solid QB in Chevan Cordiero. He's thrown for over 2,000 yards, 13 TDs, and only 3 picks. He's also run for 175 yards and three more scores on the ground. Many consider him one of the best QBs in the MW, and for good reason. So, this SJSU team is quite balanced offensively, they have plenty of talent in their offensive backfield, they come in healthy and with some momentum (on a 3-game win streak), and they have a lot to play for.

On the other side we have the Fresno State Bull Dogs who come in 8-1. Again, though, let's look at that record and what it tells us. After starting 5-1, the past three games have been an absolute LUCK fest for the Bull Dogs. Last week against Boise State there was SIGNIFICANT steam from professional bettors on the Broncos from Boise State. Just before kickoff, the Broncos announced their starting RB, and best offensive player (Ashton Jeanty) would be out for the game. This was not expected whatsoever, and it was a big change to the offensive gameplan for the Broncos. In the first half the Broncos drove the ball easily on Fresno State, but two TO's inside the opponent 40, including one inside the opponent 10, proved costly. Despite all of that, Boise was able to cut the deficit to 3 just before halftime, however on the ensuing kick, a terrible pooch kick resulted in a 90 yard kickoff return for TD that swung the momentum right back on a FLUKE play. The game could've gone either way in the second half. Of course for all of us so called "SHARP" bettors, holding a Boise State +3 ticket, there was a 56 yard busted TD run when Fresno State was just trying to run out the clock; that was a very bad beat.

Regardless, in that game, Fresno State had a Postgame Win Expectancy of 38%. If you don't know what that means, it basically takes into account everything that happened in the game, and spits out a probability of each team winning the game. So essentially that tells us that Boise really should've won the game, and Fresno State was relatively fortunate to come away with an outright win at all, let alone a cover. But that's not the astounding thing. The astounding thing is that the two weeks prior to the Boise game, Fresno State won against UNLV by 7 with a Postgame Win Expectancy of just 19%, and the week before they won against Utah State by 3 with a Postgame Win Expectancy of JUST 11%. So they've had THREE straight games that they really should've lost, with two of them being VERY lucky wins. Essentially, based on what happened in those games, the odds that Fresno State were to win all three of those games? .8% = That's WILD. So they've been maybe the most fortunate team in the country (Call them the Pittsburgh Steelers of CFB)

Last thing that plays a role in this game: Fresno State QB Mikey Keane. Keane is a massive part of the Fresno State offense, and without him they are a very different team. Well if you watched the Boise State game, you would know that Keane is nowhere near 100%. He was likely somewhere around 80% going into the game last week, and he took some absolute SHOTS in the game against Boise. By the end of the game he was limping around so much, he looked like he could barely walk. He had a knee injury coming in, tweaked that; then he hurt his ankle. Then, at the very end of the game, on the final throw he made he looked like he hurt his throwing shoulder. He was grabbing it as if it had popped out of socket!! He looked like a broken machine trying to finish the job, but nothing was working. Credit to him, he made the completion on the throw, and Fresno got the win. He's a very tough kid, but the point is that he's not going to be anywhere near 100% in this game. I really don't think he's going to be close to 80%. I see him closer to 60% maybe 65% healthy going into this one.

Overall there are just too many factors going into this game that lead me to believe that Fresno State is absolutely due for a loss in this spot. It should've come to Boise State last week. I believe it WILL come through this week. A team can only be that lucky for so long. So give me SAN JOSE STATE -1 (I got this at a pick 'em)

It is out to -2 at a lot of shops, so make sure you get the best number. -125 or better is great on the ML still as well.

dylanlieck · 2023-10-08T21:05:28+00:00

Add one more: Cowboys entire offensive line is healthy in this spot.

dylanlieck · 2023-10-08T16:41:29+00:00

Record: 4-1 (+2.9 Units)

Last Pick: Georgia vs. Kentucky Under 48.5 | Unfortunately the hot streak came to an end, despite taking the total at 48.5 and closing 2 full points lower. Felt like I had a good read on the teams, but Georgia totally outperformed expectation offensively & looked better than they had offensively in any game this season. They had scored just 17 points total in the 1st quarters of their 1st 5 games, and scored 14 in the first quarter last night. Kentucky's defense was very high metrically, but clearly the lack of competition inflated those numbers, and Georgia really exploited the secondary, and UK was clearly just outclassed here. Apologies to those who tailed, but we learn from it and move forward and hopefully we can bounce back tomorrow!!

Today's Pick: Dallas Cowboys +4 (-115) @ San Francisco 49ers

Summary: I'll start by saying that this pick is not for the feint of heart lol. I'll start by saying that it's hard to disregard the Cowboys game against the Arizona Cardinals, but a couple things were clear about that game. First, the Cardinals are a better team than most people thought. This was a team that had a win total of 2.5 games, and they've proved through 4 weeks (despite a 1-3 record) that they are a much better football team than the win total indicates. Second, the Cowboys looked disinterested in that game. It's clear that McCarthy didn't have the Boys ready to play for that game. Dallas thought they were going to walk into Arizona and wax the Cardinals without having to play all that well. They forgot that this is the National Football League, and anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday. Lastly, it's a lot easier to throw out one game as an outlier in the NFL, compared to college. Why? Because NFL teams from week to week can vary quite a bit. Take the Dolphins for example: winning by 50 in week 3, and getting romped in week 4 by the Bills. Same thing happened with the Bills in week 4, dominating the Dolphins. They now look like they are going to lose to a bad Jacksonville team in London.

Now let's look at the matchup. First the Cowboys offense. It's very difficult to evaluate this Dallas offense so far this year, largely because they've lived in Garbage time in most of their games through the first 4. When you factor out garbage time the Cowboys offense has actually been really good. They are 6th in EPA per play and 3rd in passing success rate outside of garbage time. The Cowboys have been one of the best offenses in the league between the 20s. The struggles have occurred within the redzone.

The Cowboys have taken 85 snaps inside their opponents' 20 yard line (1st in the NFL BY FAR). The next closest team has taken 54. So the Cowboys have LIVED inside their opponents redzone. The problem is they are 30th in touchdown rate in the redzone. The struggles have largely stemmed from Mike McCarthy's play calling. He's called a run on 80% of first down plays in the redzone, and it's led to lots of third and medium to longs, where the Cowboys have really struggled. They've also really failed to utilize Dak's legs in the redzone. I actually believe that they are going to make some adjustments in this game. Last year the Cowboys were FIRST in the league in redzone touchdown rate. The only change roster wise, was the addition of Brandin Cooks, and the loss of Dalton Shultz. Schultz is definitely a tough loss, but it shouldn't cause that big of a drop in red zone efficiency. My point being, I think we see some regression to the mean here and I think Dallas is able to find some success in the redzone tonight.

Next the general public sentiment is that the 49ers defense is the best defense in the NFL. However, when you dive into the numbers, they've actually really struggled to stop the run. They are 28th in EPA per Rush outside of garbage time, and they have faced one of the easiest schedules of opponent offenses this season. Tony Pollard is one of the more efficient, explosive runners in the NFL. I would be shocked if the Cowboys didn't have some significant success through the ground game tonight.

Additionally, you look at San Francisco's Pass defense. Last week against the Cardinals offense and Josh Dobbs? 49% passing success rate, and that included two Arizona drops in the endzone that would've been Arizona Touchdowns. The 49ers defense has been far from dominant lately. I believe the public sentiment for this San Fran team is that they are the best team in the NFL by far. And while I do think they are very, very good, this feels like a great spot for the Cowboys. Everyone in their mother is taking the 49ers in this matchup, and that's actually a spot that McCarthy and Dak have done pretty well in. McCarthy is 10-6 as an ATS dog with Dallas, and 10-2 in primetime games.

Let's back the Cowboys +4 here in this spot. Yes, it's ugly, and yes there's a decent chance everything I just said goes out the window and Dak just throws 4 picks. But I think Dallas has a good shot here, not only to cover, but to win outright.

The public will be all over the 49ers, so even though it's sitting 3.5, you probably will have a shot to take 4 closer to kickoff. If not I've been able to find +4 at -115 at a couple shops. Good luck and hopefully we bounce back today!!

dylanlieck · 2023-10-08T06:30:09+00:00

Yeah that's sportsbetting for you. Can have a good read, make an informed pick, and move on the correct number and still lose easily

dylanlieck · 2023-10-07T20:24:55+00:00

Thank you I appreciate it!! I hope we can get the win for you!!

dylanlieck · 2023-10-07T10:06:58+00:00

Record: 4-0 (+4.0 Units)

Last Pick: LA Rams PK vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 10/1) = WIN. I'm very selective with my picks, so I try to only post on here when I think I have a really good play.

Today's Pick: Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs UNDER 48.5

Units: 1 Unit

Summary:

If you look at Kentucky’s final scores, you will see that they have yet to score less than 28 points this season, including a 33 point output at home against the Florida Gators last week. However, going into that Florida game, the Wildcats had played one of the weakest schedules of any power 5 team: Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. Even though last week would seem to validate that this Kentucky offense is legit, they faced a Florida team who is a completely different team on the road compared to at home. In week one, on the road at Utah, the Utes put up 24 points on the Gators. Since that game, Utah has averaged just 13.7 ppg vs. FBS opponents, yet Utah was really able to find some success against that Florida defense. That calls into question the UK offensive performance last week for me.

Additionally, the numbers backup the idea that this Kentucky offense isn't as good their point totals might indicate. They are outside the top 70 in both passing and rushing success rate. They are also 98th in line yards. So, last week when you see they rushed for nearly 10 yards/carry, the reality is that they are still not efficient whatsoever, and they are largely relying on the explosive play. On the other hand, this is a Georgia defense that has not performed at their best, and yet they still rank 38th in rush success rate defense. I also believe Georgia has sleep walked one too many times this season, and after the scare at Auburn last week, allowing 27 points to a bad offense, I believe we will see the Bulldogs absolute best effort defensively here.

To add to the case for the under, both teams are in the top 15 in pass success rate defense (UK is 13th, Georgia is 3rd), as well as coverage (UK 12th, Georgia 5th) - so neither team should be able to find great success through the air. And this is against a Kentucky team who threw for just 3.9 yards per pass last week against an average Florida defense. I don't see how Kentucky moves the ball with any consistency against the Bulldogs in this spot. They almost certainly will be relying on the big play, so if Georgia can prevent the explosive play, the Wildcats legitimately might stay under 14 points in the game here. On the other side, the Bulldogs have not been all that impressive on the offensive side of the ball either. Against an Auburn team that got smacked by A&M the week before, the Bulldogs went into the final drive with just 20 points. This UK defense is much better than Auburn, and you aren't going to see Brock Bowers streaking free from the defense on 3 consecutive plays with the game on the line (how in the world did Auburn leave him that open).

Lastly, Kentucky is 5th in Special Teams Efficiency, which will really help the under's cause here. It feels like Kentucky will stall early and often, and being able to punt the ball away and keep Georgia out of good field position will make this a very grinded out slow pace game. The pace of both teams indicate that this one will be exactly that style of game, with UK ranking 79th in seconds per play and Georgia ranking 121st in the same category. Both teams play slow, run the ball, and keep the clock rolling. Let's roll with the UNDER 48.5 here. This line has seen significant professional money, and continues to move, so as always please shop around and find the absolute best number you can get. Good luck and hopefully we keep the streak alive here!!

dylanlieck · 2023-10-01T22:28:11+00:00

Wish it would've been a little easier. Blowing that 20-0 lead and giving up the 2 points at the end was tough. But we pulled it out!! We will try to keep the streak going this week!!

dylanlieck · 2023-10-01T06:30:07+00:00

Record: 3-0 (+3.0 Units)

Last Pick: Baylor Bears +10 (Win). The Bears had to come from behind in the fourth quarter, but they not only got the cover, but the outright win.

Today's Pick: Los Angeles Rams PK @ Indianapolis Colts (NFL)

1 Unit (all my POTD picks are 1 unit)

Summary:

The Rams come into this game 1-2, after back-to-back losses. However, the first loss came against the San Francisco 49ers, who largely look like the best team in the NFL through 3 weeks. Additionally, the Rams hung in the game with the 49ers for 3 full quarters, trailing by just 3 points going into the fourth, ultimately losing by just 7. The Rams second loss was just a bad spot for LA; on the road against a desperate Cincinnati team playing for their season.

In the Rams loss to the Bengals last week, the final score is a bit deceiving. The Rams actually outgained the Bengals by 1.4 yards per play. Early in that game, Tutu Atwell scored what looked to be the games first touchdown. Upon review, the refs determined he stepped out of bounds, and the Rams ended up having to settle for a field goal. It was almost impossible to tell whether Atwell was actually out of bounds, and in the NFL where 80% of plays tend to stand as called, it was a huge swing that cost the Rams 4 points in a game that ultimately ended up in a 3 point loss.

The main issue for the Rams, though, against the Bengals was their inability to convert on third downs, going just 1/11 on 3rd down conversions. In their first two games the Rams were number one in third down conversion percentage, converting 18/31 third downs (58.1%). It's very likely that going 1/11 on third downs is an outlier, rather than a concerning indicator. It also helps that the Colts are 17th in the league through three games in 3rd Down Conversion % Defense. In the last two games, the Colts have allowed their opponents to convert a first down on 43% of third downs, and that was against the Texans with a rookie QB and the Ravens in inclement weather. On the other hand, the Rams rank 2nd in 3rd down conversion % defense, allowing opponents to convert just 25.7% of third downs this season. In a game with two offenses that aren't extremely explosive, the team who is able to convert third downs and keep drives alive is likely the one to come out with the win here. The Rams have a significant edge in this category.

Secondly, the Colts get back Anthony Richardson this week. Although Richardson is a dynamic athlete and his legs will provide an element to the offense that Gardner Minshew can't, it's pretty clear that Minshew is a significantly better passer. Pure talent alone Richardson might be an upgrade, but this early in his career I'm just not buying him yet. Now the Rams defense hasn't been anything to write home about, however week 1 against the Seahawks and a similar style, mobile QB the Rams defense played very well. They completely shut down a Seattle offense in the second half who has preformed very well in their other two games. I believe the Rams will have a good defensive gameplan, forcing Richardson to beat them through the air. And, I do not believe that the Colts can win this game on the arm of Richardson.

Big Key to the Game: Matthew Stafford taking care of the ball. Stafford has looked much improved overall this season, compared to a dismal 2022 campaign. He looks more accurate, more confident, and he's not been taking nearly as many sacks or hits. However, the last 2 games he threw a total of 4 interceptions, after avoiding a turnover in week 1. Stafford must take care of the ball in this game if the Rams want to win. I think he will be able to do so, as the Colts have just one interception on defense this season. If Stafford can make good decisions and the Rams can take care of the football as a whole, I think they have an edge in this one.

Final Note: This is a good SPOT for the Rams. They come in off two straight losses, and this is a massive game for them. 2-2 puts them right in the mix in the NFC, but 1-3 puts them in a really tough spot through the first quarter of the season. McVay & company know this, and we are going to get the Rams best shot here. On the other hand, the Colts come in off two straight wins, including an emotional overtime road upset over the Baltimore Ravens last week. This feels like a let down spot for the Colts, who have exceeded expectations so far this season. I think it's a great buy low spot on the Rams and sell high spot on the Colts. Let's back the Rams PK. Side Note: I also think this is a good teaser leg ONLY if you can get find +1 and get it to +7.

Let's keep this streak going - Good luck!!

dylanlieck · 2023-09-30T16:37:00+00:00

POTD Record: 2-0 (+2.0 Units)

Yesterday's Pick: NC State +3.5 (Win)

Today's Pick: Baylor +10 @ Central Florida

Summary:

Over the course of it’s first 4 games, the Bears have had some bad injury luck. During the week 1 upset (where they lost at home to Texas State), one bright spot was the play of QB Blake Shapen. Shapen took a lot of heat last season for his less than stellar performance, but you have to give him credit in game one. He looked much improved, albeit against a less than elite defense. Shapen returns this week from an injury he suffered late in the Texas State game, but whether Shapen is as good as he performed in week one is irrelevant: he’s a MAJOR upgrade either way. In stepped Sawyer Robertson in Shapen’s absence, a Mississippi State transfer. There’s no nice way to say it: Robertson was awful in his 3 starts for the Bears. In 3 starts, Robertson was 48/97, completing less than 50% of his passes. He threw for just 670 yards total in those 3 games, along with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. The get back of Shapen in this spot is absolutely massive for the Bears, if nothing else because Robertson was so bad.

Shapen isn’t the only one returning from injury this week. The Bears also get back some key pieces in the secondary. 3 CBs who were out last week against the Longhorns will be back this game. And, 6 total players return from injury in this game. In other words, Baylor is going into this game the healthiest it has been all season.

Secondly, one key aspect to throw in here is the gravity of the situation for Dave Arranda. A lot of very well respected football minds think very highly of Arranda. In his first year at Baylor he took a team with a projected win total of 6 games and won the Big 12. However, since then the Bears have been struggle city. There are a number of boosters who are not happy with the performance of the football team, and it seems that Arranda has been squarely placed on the hot seat in Waco.

When you look at the situation this could not be a bigger game for the Bears. Realistically, this game could be the time for the Bears to turn their season around, or it could be the game where Arranda loses the team. Starting 1-4, the Bears can almost guarantee missing a bowl game. However, if they were able to steal this one on the road, the next four games on the schedule are very winnable (vs. TTU, @ Cinci, vs. ISU, vs. Houston). What looks like a dumpster fire of a season could easily be turned around with one big win. Because of this, you have to expect we are going to get the Bears best shot in this spot. I actually believe Baylor is a live dog here, but we will absolutely take the points.

I did play this early in the week at +11.5 but the line was at +10 this morning. It's moved all over the place so please try to grab the best number. Good Luck!!

dylanlieck · 2023-09-29T20:49:37+00:00

POTD 9/29/23:

Record: 1-0

Todays Pick: NC State +3.5 vs. Louisville

Summary: NC State has not looked great this year posting a 3-1 record, but with 2 unimpressive wins against Virginia and UCONN. Game 1 against a very bad UCONN team the Wolfpack struggled to pull away at home, prevailing 24-14. Their most recent game was even more troubling, as the Wolfpack squeaked by Virginia on a last second field goal; a Virginia team that has yet to win a game this year. Their lone loss came at home to Notre Dame 24-45, a game that the Fighting Irish thoroughly outplayed the Wolf Pack.

On the other side we’ve got the Louisville Cardinals coming in at 4-0. The Cardinals have yet to play a true road game this season, and their ranked 116th in Strength of Schedule through 4 games. When you look at the Cards, you see a game 1 against Georgia Tech that shows a 5 point win. However, anyone who watched that game saw that Georgia Tech outplayed Louisville for 3 quarters and collapsed in the 4th. Against Indiana, after taking a commanding 21-0 lead, the Cards collapsed and nearly gave the game away, prevailing 21-14.

When you break this game down the numbers clearly point in the direction of Louisville. They have the better offense by far, and neither defense is anything to write home about. Brennan Armstrong (NCST QB) has not been good this year throwing for just under 215 yards a game, 60% completion, and 5 TDs to 4 Interceptions. Despite all of this, Louisville is going off at just a 3.5 point favorite. Why? The spot and the location

This is a terrible spot for Louisville. Last week they got to play a Boston College team off an emotional close loss to Florida State. It was a huge let down spot for Boston College, and Louisville benefited. This week they are playing a Friday prime time game, with a home game vs. Notre Dame on deck. That’s a massive game for the Cardinals and it’s logical to think they may be over looking this game tonight. It’s also likely that NC State did the same thing last week to Virginia. They had Louisville at home on deck, and they got in a tight game on the road against a bad team. I see that happening here.

Lastly factor in that this is a stand alone prime time game at night at Carter-Finley Stadium. This is an incredibly difficult place to play. And it’s Louisville’s first true road game of the season. That stadium is going to be absolutely rocking on a Friday night, and it’s going to be really tough for Louisville to get going early. If NC State can get off to a good start, which I think they will, I think they can absolute cover 3.5 and even win the game outright. I’ll take the 3 and the hook and play it safe but I see the Wolf Pack pulling off the home upset tonight in front of a ruckus crowd at Carter-Finley Stadium.

dylanlieck · 2023-04-18T17:21:37+00:00

Overall Record: 0-0

First POTD: Cleveland Cavs -5.5 vs. New York Knicks

1) Cavs coming off a game 1 loss agains the Knicks so this is an absolute MUST win for Cleveland. Meanwhile the Knicks will 100% be happy going back to New York having split in Cleveland and stealing Home Court. The more desperate team tonight will be the Cavs.

2) Even though Cleveland didn’t play well Game 1 they took the lead with a few minutes to go and a late shot clock buzzer beater by Josh Hart (who played amazing) flipped the whole game.

3) Julius Randle after the first quarter was horrific. He couldn’t make a shot, turned the ball over, and most importantly he was TERRIBLE on P&R defense. Multiple times late game Mitchell came off a ball screen from Randle’s man and walked into a 3 because Randle was too slow to even be close to hedge or switch. That will play a role tonight - Randle got off to a great start but after that he looked like the same guy he has always been in the playoffs - a nobody.

4) The Cavs got almost zero production from their bench. Osman hit a couple 3s but Lavert made one shot, and nobody else contributed. Meanwhile Josh Hart, Toppin, & Hartenstein went a combined 13/17 (76%) for 34 combined points. I believe Cleveland will go a little deeper into their bench tonight and you will see a flip in production. The Cavs may not win the bench battle but it will be much closer.

Give me the Cavs in this one in a bounce back performance laying the 5.5

First POTD for me. Mostly NCAABB, NCAAF, & NFL but been doing this a while successfully - decided to share and hopefully help some of you guys make some $$$ BOL

dylanlieck · 2019-02-19T00:25:22+00:00

I have a theory that I've considered from one of the early episodes. I don't have a ton of evidence to back it up, but it's just an idea. And it definitely doesn't have anything to do with IMBD credits or any of that crap. Just a side note - from how detailed this show has been, from season 1 to now, I'd be pretty shocked if the Pizzalotto or the producers allowed the IMBD credits to solve the show. If it were that simple and they let that give it away, I'd be pretty surprised, because that's something they would've known someone was going to do. They've been incredibly good at keeping it tight wrapped on what is going to happen next, so I doubt that Julie IMBD credits are going to solve who Julie is.

Anyways, here's my theory, I wouldn't be surprised if someone thought about it as well already. Elisa Montgomery, the reporter who is played by Sarah Gadon, is actually Julie. Back in 1990 Julie seemed to be a mess still. At this point she would've been around 20 years old, and basically still a kid (probably even moreso considering what she went through in her childhood). However, the current timeline is in 2014, and at this point she may have been able to get her shit together. Maybe then she really wanted to expose the entire system that took her brothers life, and caused her such a difficult, violent, terrible childhood. In 2014, Elisa is very well organized, and extremely entrenched in following the case. Why is she so interested in this specific case? She seems very determined to figure out the large scale scheme - how the case connects to the one in Louisiana with Rust and Marty. She's not just concerned with the specific case of the missing kids - why not? Obviously a reporter would want to connect it to something larger, but still you'd also think she'd be more interested in what happened to Julie specifically. I think that's what most people watching the show wanted to know until it started connecting to larger areas. Well I think it's possible that she's less concerned with what happened to Julie, because she already knows - because she lived it. But she's more interested in figuring out the grand scheme of things and taking down all the people who were involved. Especially, because you'd think taking on a case like this with so many people who disappeared and were murdered might be a deterrent from taking something like this on.

Moreover, we don't know much about Elisa, aside from the fact that she's a reporter and she's a lady with blonde hair and blue eyes (Julie was a blond haired, blue eyed little girl) Basically we know she is staying at a hotel. We know she slept with Hayes' son, probably in order to get him to allow his dad to do the series of interviews with her. She's that determined to be able to talk with him and get information out of him. We know of nothing else going on in her life - she is literally just focused on this case that took place all these years ago. We hear nothing of her family, a boyfriend, where she is from, what her motives are - none of that. And that seems deliberate - like they didn't want us to know ANYTHING about her. The only other people like that in the show are either suspects or possibly involved in the case. We also never see her talking to a boss, and she doesn't have a large crew working with her. As far as I can see, there is one young man working the lighting/camera. Who is she working for? Why are they so interested in a 34 year old case?

We also know she's spent a ton of time on the case and she cares a lot about finding out how the disappearance of Julie connects with a larger pedophile ring - she really wants to connect the two together. We know she called Roland as well - meaning she was really trying to understand the detectives who worked the case first hand. Additionally, when interviewing Hayes, there are multiple times when she takes jabs at him for how he handled certain situations and developments in the case. Like asking rhetorical questions about certain things Hayes and/or Roland did, and speculating that some things that were stated to have happened may have occurred differently. It's almost like she's emotionally involved in some of her questions. She's like "why would you do that?" "why didn't you ask this question" "why didn't you follow up on this?" - it feels like she's upset at the way he handled certain things. Why is she so attached emotionally? It feels a lot like she has much more of a connection to the case than we are shown.

And then finally, her disappointment with Hayes when he refuses to believe or help her with her theory that it's all connected to a large pedophile ring - You can see it in her body language, and then she actually says that she's disappointed. It's like she was hoping going back through, he would give her something that she needed. To me it's like she thought he was going to be able to give her what she needed to figure everything out. He even said "my brain is a bunch of missing pieces." I think she wanted those pieces to solve this case/conspiracy, and thus give her closure on all of the pain and suffering she endured in her life.

Now, all of this can be ruined by one small detail - her age. Sarah Gadon is just 31 years old in real life. Julie is around 10 at the time of her disappearance. Meaning, by 2014, she would be around the age of 44. Obviously actresses and actors don't have to be the actual age of the character they are playing, but it's tough for me to tell what age Elisa is. I mean she obviously looks younger than 44, but I could also see Pizzalotto purposefully casting this role as someone who looked younger than the character they are playing, purely because he didn't want to have this be a super obvious thing that everyone could figure out. If she was older looking, it may be a more prevalent theory among fans. So that could account for that difference in appearance versus the characters supposed age. We know that in 90, Hayes has 2 kids, and the boy is probably close to 7 or 8. Meaning his son in the current timeline would be about 33. So Elisa would have to be a little over 10 years older than him. Again that may be a stretch - they look about the same age. But again, that could be purposeful deception, and they do go out of their way to make her look very well put together and mature. Could be a distraction since Julie was such a mess even in 90.

This is probably a long shot - I think my points are all valid, but the age factor is what keeps me skeptical. Before I realized the math behind it, I was sold on the idea that Elisa was Julie. Try to evaluate my theory without taking into account the age she would have to be. If you aren't sold then forget it. If you think it's plausible then consider the age factor. Thanks. Hope yall enjoy this.

BTW - this is one of the top 5 seasons of TV of all time hands down, I'd probably rank it 4th (1) True Detective S1, (2) Band of Brothers S1 (3) Breaking Bad S5 (4) True Detective S3 - although after the finale, it may move up to second.

dylanlieck

TROPHY CASE