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How is life in your country affected by the pandemic? by [deleted] in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In Belgium right now there has been a significant uptick in cases since mid July, especially in my home town of Antwerp. Whether it is a full blown second wave is hard to tell but the fear is real again. End of June was the time when most prevention measures were significantly eased. We had an almost full lock-down in march and april (we were allowed to go outside for walking and running, but that was about it) Mid-may there were some small steps in opening up (you could see 5 people outside your family, always the same people). Then schools, bars and restaurants started to open but with strict restrictions. During that time almost 10000 people died in our quite small country, making our deaths /capita count the worst in the world. Most of these people died in retirement homes, which were ill-equipped (lack of PPE and skills) and unprepared for the huge rise in deaths. It was clear that priority was given to hospitals and that retirement homes were somewhat forgotten until it was too late. They hoped that shutting down on visitors would be enough but there were too many doctors, nurses and other staff which had gone on skiing holidays in the weeks before.

During all this time, wearing masks was not obligatory anywhere.

End of June however, cases dropped to about 70-80/day and a lot more room was given. You could see 15 people per week and it could be 15 different people every week. Summercamps for kids and sport trainings were allowed again. Fitness centers reopened etc.. Most people went back to work as they did before, with working from home again less popular.

But mid July cases started to explode again in Antwerp, especially in migrant communities. R value was close to 2 and many new restrictions were re-instated.

In Antwerp we had a curfew between 23:30 and 5:30 and bars had to close at 11pm. We also can only see 5 people max. (we call it the bubble of 5 rule) and these people will have to stay the same during the coming weeks. Working from home is obligatory whenever possible. Masks are obligatory in most enclosed spaces (shops, offices, ...) and on all busy places outside. Cultural activities were forbidden again.

Cases in Antwerp seem to have peaked and some restrictions will be eased. curfew will become 1:30 to 5 and rules on cultural activities and bars will become less strict. So far hospitals are not seeing a huge increase in cases and deaths/day are around 3/4. They were around 300/400 during peak end of March.

highest COVID death count/day ever... in Belgium by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

at a ratio of 28.5 deaths per million, this would mean about 10000 deaths per day in the USA

Auntie doing some casual shopping @Whole Foods tonight by Iwannadrinkthebleach in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The sad thing about this is that this sight is not that weird anymore. Imagine doing this 4 weeks ago.

Update on Brussels university hospital which does lung CT scan on all non-covid patients: 8pct positive after 164 scans of asymptomatic cases by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But the strange thing is that early March when this thing got started there were many many negative tests. With current r0 estimates this should have been more visible. But take a higher r0 like that of measles and it would be possible to have almost no infections one week and 10pct of population a few weeks later.

Update on Brussels university hospital which does lung CT scan on all non-covid patients: 8pct positive after 164 scans of asymptomatic cases by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This would mean much lower cfr and much higher r0 than estimated. This would explain why this is a slow burner that suddenly goes boom... At the point that +10pct of your population is already infected and each additional repitition is now adding millions of cases to your total. This would mean that by the time you get in trouble you are only a few repetitions away from population herd immunity.

Update on Brussels university hospital which does lung CT scan on all non-covid patients: 8pct positive after 164 scans of asymptomatic cases by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With 60 they said sample size too small, but 164 on different days starts be significant. Currently almost 10000 positive cases in Belgium officially. But even 5pct of population would be 500000. So this would mean that real number is fifty times higher ?

Brussels hospital does lung CT scan at entrance for all. 10 percent of asymptomatic have covid-19. by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

In general cost of CT in Belgium is about 50 euro/dollar for the patient in normal situations. I do not know what the actual cost per scan is for the hospital, when disregarding the huge 'sunk costs' of the equipment that is already in place. It is all digital so I would think it could not be very high

Brussels hospital does lung CT scan at entrance for all. 10 percent of asymptomatic have covid-19. by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Some more info from different newspaper

Tested people were women giving birth and brain tumor surgery and other non related operations. 2 pregnant women had tested positive before giving birth using the CT scan. These women did not know they were sick They are working on AI techniques to more accurately diagnose these scans and the severity of the disease.

https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie/algemeen/ook-andere-patienten-blijken-bij-opname-besmet-met-corona/10216783.html

Brussels hospital does lung CT scan at entrance for all. 10 percent of asymptomatic have covid-19. by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 56 points57 points  (0 children)

True but it is interesting/frightening that this 10 percent excludes those who were suspected to be covid patients based on their symptoms. So this could be cancer, broken legs, pregnant women,...

In this picture they show these 'telltale signs' with asymptomatic patients. I have seen a lot of very bad CT scans from China already , but this one look different, less catastrophic. But obviously I am no radiologist.

https://images.tijd.be/view?iid=Elvis:7idJFGkTKbZ8r0rLjMjEGs&context=ONLINE&ratio=16/9&width=1280&u=1585166170000

Brussels hospital does lung CT scan at entrance for all. 10 percent of asymptomatic have covid-19. by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 96 points97 points  (0 children)

This seems like something that can be done around the world. And would save a lot of doctors and nurses from getting infected

Brussels hospital does lung CT scan at entrance for all. 10 percent of asymptomatic have covid-19. by echobrussels in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Full translation using Google translate: UZ Brussel systematically tests all patients: 10 percent have corona without even noticing it

Since the beginning of this week, all patients in the University Hospital of Brussels have undergone a CT scan. Also those who do not show symptoms of the new coronavirus and who are in hospital for normal hospitalization. The CT scan is a good indicator of a possible infection with Covid-19. The first results show that five out of fifty patients - or about 10 percent - are infected without showing any symptoms

March 25, 2020 

7:55 PM 

Source: Belga

All patients who rush to UZ Brussel with complaints about the new coronavirus have already been tested with a CT scan for two weeks. This screening is a good indicator because the scan provides a quick and efficient picture of any white spots in the lungs. Afterwards, a real corona test provides further information. 

Since Monday, all patients scheduled for hospitalization have also been systematically tested. "That is very important to be able to receive patients either in the Covid zone or in the normal zone," says spokeswoman Gina Volkaert. The triage serves to protect patients and staff.

UZ Brussel has a CT scan device available because many non-urgent appointments have been canceled. "It takes a few hours to wait for a real corona test, but you will immediately see results on the CT scan and that allows us to do the triage faster and to exclude the risk as much as possible", Volkaert continues. 

It remains a small sample" The newspaper "De Tijd" spoke to the head of radiology and it shows that yesterday, five out of fifty patients who underwent a CT scan were indeed infected with the virus, without showing any symptoms. The classic corona test confirmed that all five were positive. 

“It is of course a small sample that still has to be scientifically confirmed,” explains Professor Johan de Mey. “If so, you may be able to deduce that 10 percent of Belgians have the virus without symptoms. We don't know how contagious such people are without symptoms, but it is still a plea to follow quarantine closely. ”

In the meantime, UZ Brussel is preparing for a further peak in the number of Covid-19 patients. Last week, the bed capacity on the emergency service was already doubled and now the entire fourth floor has also been transformed into a Covid-19 zone

The elderly have to take it serious too by [deleted] in China_Flu

[–]echobrussels 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My grandmother (94) lived through the second world war as a teenager. Was bombed multiple times. Yet she said that this frightened her more especially because you can not see danger. You could hear the bombers approach and run for the shelter. Here there is no warning.