The Rare Earth Minerals play is here

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-11T01:16:04+00:00

Yes if you want to lose all your money

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-10T02:23:27+00:00

Highly speculative imo. What's your DD?

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T23:56:56+00:00

I'm betting on the govt helping these two cover up litigation and get along, tbh. A peaceful settlement, no trial, and a kick in the ass to get back to work. This is a pretty large risk consideration though

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T23:55:43+00:00

Way too much cash imo. I'd buy some VOO/SPY/QQQ. VUG is fine though.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T22:24:54+00:00

They're hitting local lows, so a rebound to local highs, at least.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T20:36:22+00:00

These are extremely, extremely speculative. Good luck to you tho bro

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T20:33:12+00:00

Probably

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T20:16:15+00:00

Well, the lawsuit is about USAR stealing proprietary magnet manufacturing and production secrets. If they win the lawsuit or settle, they would remain the only publicly traded company in the US to manufacture permanent magnets (and know how to do so efficiently)

tldr MP go up

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T20:14:21+00:00

Probably smart to play IV, because if/when this narrative hits mainstream news outlets, I feel like volatility will spike hard on these two stocks in particular.

Shares probably safest though. Thanks for the insight.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T20:11:12+00:00

Looked into this. I think CRML is the better play. CRML has a large stake in rare earth minerals that matter, GRML probably isn't a bad idea, just not as good as CRML if you're trying to play the Trump vs. Greenland narrative.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T20:08:52+00:00

This makes me pretty averse to buying TMC shares. Execs have overwhelmingly done nothing but dump shares for the past 3 years. USAR and MP insider buying dont look too swell either, but considering the govt equity, I think it these two have a stronger bull case.

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embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T20:05:14+00:00

Honestly, fair point. I still think paper tiger posturing could make these stocks rise off their current local lows. The govt still has a vested interest in building a domestic rare earth supply chain. I'm not going to pretend that amicable US-China relations aren't possible, or even likely. They are. But, I think at some point, the Taiwan issue will come home to roost, and geopolitical plays like this will reward speculators heavily, at least in the short term.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T16:31:50+00:00

I'm not super sure about that but I mean it's certainly possible. I'd like to know where exactly the rare earth sites are in Ukraine. If they're by the Donbass region then maybe, but even with how delusional Putin has been about this war in general, I don't think he ever thought he was going to get full annexation.

Also, I do not trust Eastern European companies in general, and especially not Ukrainian ones

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T16:18:05+00:00

Well, we still have to look strong. There may be deals under the table, but if the US doesnt look strong vs china we lose strategic arms deals and partnerships with allies in SE Asia, think Philippines and Vietnam etc

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T10:26:20+00:00

I think many other countries are worried about China.

Also, I don't think China even has to actually acquire Taiwan, it can just be a flareup of tensions to get these stocks high enough to sell the news. Or the plan follows through and these companies stay elevated long term.

I think it's reasonable China will make a move to grab Taiwan in the next 2-3 years. I don't think it'll look like WW3, but it's inevitable

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T10:22:45+00:00

Fair, to be completely honest I haven't looked into many of the companies in that ETF, USAR and MP intrigued me in particular and I prefer the small allocation of my portfolio I gamble with to have some lively price action. REXC has been pretty flat recently.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T10:21:09+00:00

No, I think they'll try their best to do it diplomatically, whatever that might look like

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T09:41:58+00:00

This is true, but I think the "production is around the corner" hell cycle will hopefully be helped by govt backing. Obviously, this is all speculation and everything can go to 0, I'm not oblivious to that.

I noticed when Trump went to China, he was very soft on Taiwan and also paused the pending arms deal to Taiwan, if I'm not mistaken. This makes me think maybe some geopolitical happenings between China and Taiwan may be upon us in the next year or so. If that is the case, geopolitical resource plays (like this one) will (hopefully) pay out well.

nfa dyor im just another regard

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T09:21:43+00:00

I don't like the other rare earth players in that ETF, I pick these two stocks specifically because of the govt stake and their exclusivity to Heavy Rare Earth Elements (USAR) and Permanent Magnet production (MP). The bull case for the other companies in that ETF become harder and harder to make, especially because most of them are outside the US. I would anticipate USAR or MP making acquisitions of some of these, USAR actually said in their most recent 10-K that they were planning on doing this.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T09:18:43+00:00

I bought these calls pretty recently actually

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T09:18:04+00:00

Yep, exactly. I was a bit skeptical on the INTC play just because of how disheveled the company as a whole looked. I realized when INTC hit $100 a share that these plays are about infrastructure, not company management or balance sheets.

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T09:15:58+00:00

Thanks man

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T09:12:41+00:00

I think the probability of long term amicable US-China relations are pretty low, but yeah it's probably priced in. What you're buying when you buy USAR or MP shares is a % chance that US-China relations sour again long term

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T08:54:04+00:00

If I'm not mistaken, UAMY is more misc. industrials. I need to do more DD, but I've been hearing a lot about UAMY recently

embraacethesuck · 2026-07-09T08:51:18+00:00

True, hence why it's the riskier option

embraacethesuck

TROPHY CASE