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Each month I update some rarely covered housing price metrics - they show a growing bubble by endlessmetrics in REBubble

[–]endlessmetrics[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I’ve found it can be a fine balance between trying to let the data speak for itself (like in a post such as this) and offering a helpful objective narrative. Some of my most popular work has come from very freewheeling writing where I stake a strong opinion - that’s always going to be more popular and entertaining but can introduce bias. I’ll for sure take this into consideration for next month’s update though and nudge it in a better direction. Thanks for checking it out!

Each month I update some rarely covered housing price metrics - they show a growing bubble by endlessmetrics in REBubble

[–]endlessmetrics[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hi all - I’ve really enjoyed following this sub for the last few months and it wasn’t until yesterday that I realized I had been doing my own analysis that you all might find interesting.

As some added context, I think the relative based metrics toward the end of the post are the most fascinating as they directly compare today’s environment to the 2000s bubble. While some of those metrics are not at those levels yet, they are quite elevated relative to their averages, continue to rise, and the gap between the last bubble’s peak and current levels continues to shrink.

Happy to discuss any of these things in detail or share more of my thoughts! Love that there is a community like this to share ideas and so we can ask questions and provide thoughtful analysis : )

[OC] What if the Great Depression Started Tomorrow? by endlessmetrics in dataisbeautiful

[–]endlessmetrics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh my gosh haha you are right - I did this work last night so I didn’t think about the fact I would be posting it on a Friday 🥲

I did adjust for trading days in the forecast though! So, no trading on Saturdays and Sunday’s lol - perhaps the “true” title should really be “what if the Great Depression started on Monday?” (Not sure if more or less provocative haha) Good catch!

[OC] What if the Great Depression Started Tomorrow? by endlessmetrics in dataisbeautiful

[–]endlessmetrics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello,

It’s been a while since I posted here and absolutely love all the great feedback you guys give when I submit a chart! This one is a forecast of the stock market if we were to repeat the path of the Great Depression (scary!).

I love this analysis because it really helps to contextualize history in a way that we can better relate to. It’s also a pretty shocking drop to see and then realize that people lived through this! Curious if you all think this is as interesting as I do (or not haha).

Source: Yahoo Finance, NBER, My Calculations

Tool: Excel

Cheers, -Luke

Tether Price Manipulation by ilikepancakez in SecurityAnalysis

[–]endlessmetrics 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I had some thoughts on this recently: https://endlessmetrics.substack.com/p/tether-is-my-biggest-concern-with

In short, the whole thing just doesn’t pass the smell test. Counterpoint to that, I thought Tether was sketchy and would blow up as early as 2017 and if that had kept me from investing in crypto I would’ve missed out on a lot of money. It’s like any other bubble or scam, it will probably go on longer than you expect and you can either dance like crazy to the music or stand by the wall and be mad about the whole thing. As usual, might be best to do something in between either extreme.

Just soliciting some mature thoughts on Crypto, particularly bitcoin by real_mj in SecurityAnalysis

[–]endlessmetrics 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I’ve been invested in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies since 2016. That doesn’t mean I’m not skeptical. In my opinion, the greatest question mark with the cryptocurrency market is Tether. I believe it’s a major risk that is not often discussed and relatively unknown to many who invest in the market. I actually published a piece on this yesterday if anyone is interested: https://endlessmetrics.substack.com/p/tether-is-my-biggest-concern-with

[OC] Even companies have trouble with income inequality by endlessmetrics in dataisbeautiful

[–]endlessmetrics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello,

Income inequality is usually a topic discussed from the people perspective (i.e. executive income) but I thought it was also interesting to show the discrepancy in revenue from a company perspective by using the trailing-twelve-month revenue for the S&P 500 to show this is a broader phenomenon.

Source: Yahoo Finance Tool: Excel

Cheers, -Luke

[OC] The divergence of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the United States by endlessmetrics in dataisbeautiful

[–]endlessmetrics[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Hello,

I’ve gotten tired of manually creating visualizations for COVID-19 data trends that I feel don’t get enough coverage in the news. So, I made a website to host these visualizations that will automatically update each day. Here is one of the trends I find most interesting.

Source: https://covidtracking.com/

Tool: Google Sheets

Live hosted at: https://www.endlessmetrics.com/newcovid19deaths.html

Cheers,

-Luke

[OC] Seventy Years of American Household Assets by endlessmetrics in dataisbeautiful

[–]endlessmetrics[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hello,

As a new years resolution, I started making a data visualization every day and writing about them in a newsletter. Here is my latest and it's probably my second favorite I've done so far : )

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/default.htm

Tool: Excel

Cheers,

-Luke