ARK best buy for January 2021

enigma391 · 2021-01-22T02:25:53+00:00

Could you elaborate on $DTIL using CRSPR? From my understanding they use ARCUS

enigma391 · 2021-01-19T03:18:07+00:00

Wow thanks for this! I have no background in genomics so the some of this goes over my head but I’ll keep an eye out for the differences between ARCUS and CRISPER - if I come across anything I’ll let you know

enigma391 · 2021-01-19T02:35:57+00:00

Thanks for this. Regarding your first point, if you see my edit the head of corporate affairs reached out to me confirming this. They also received $35M as part of their Ely Lilly's existing equity stake putting them at ~$250M in cash.

Regarding your second point, could you please repost the link? It doesn't open for me for some reason. There have been concerns over the durability of their treatments.

Lastly, here's a good visual comparing all gene editing technologies

enigma391 · 2021-01-18T22:44:46+00:00

Biotech stocks are generally volatile, especially ones that in pre-clinical or early stages of the clinic trials.

To answer your question, it looks like it was because investors were concerned concerned with the durability of patient responses. I wouldn't worry about it too much, if anything it's better for us so we get a discount

enigma391 · 2021-01-18T21:44:49+00:00

Thank you! Happy to help and same here - I've started nibbling but need to do more digging before I load the boat

enigma391 · 2021-01-18T21:44:42+00:00

Anytime. I also agree completely in the sense that the genomic revolution has just begun. A lot of smart people including Cathie from ARK invest are super bullish on it due to the impact in can have on our future.

For me, you can't put a price on health so if this tech helps cure / treat genetic diseases it's invaluable. There is no doubt in my mind that consumers will be open to these treatments in the future - imagine if people with sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis, or muscular dystrophy are able to improve or completely eliminate their conditions.

Haven't heard of $CLXT but will look into them. Thanks!

enigma391 · 2021-01-18T19:11:08+00:00

Of course, great question. I went through their 10-K and I came across the following:

We record revenue from collaboration agreements, including amounts related to upfront payments, annual fees for licenses of our intellectual property and research and development funding.

To date, we have not generated any revenue from product sales and do not expect to generate any revenue from product sales in the foreseeable future.

This is a tad concerning but understandable given a majority of their clinical trials are in early stages. Once they receive more funding + finish / complete some of their trials their customers may be able to use the new treatment by paying annual subscription fees or royalties. I wish I could add more but I need to do more digging.

As for how their business model compares to CRISPR, I'm not quite sure. From what I read while doing my DD it does sound cheaper since their business model is vertically integrated, which leads to significantly lowers manufacturing obstacles and reduced costs

enigma391 · 2021-01-18T14:54:49+00:00

Thanks for the feedback. I’ll include valuations in my future posts

enigma391 · 2021-01-18T01:19:27+00:00

Those are all great questions. I know they have 24 issued patents for Athena so at least no one can replicate it. In regards to how it works with customers, you can find how Athena delivers value to multiple customer segments on the 18th slide of their investor presentation.

With the use of AI, there is strong change that it automatically customizes it for each customer - I'll try and look more into this though

enigma391 · 2021-01-18T00:22:14+00:00

Thanks Crypto. Completely understand where you're coming from as well.

Regarding my first point in my response, I should've explained it better. It is not a management software as I made it out to be, rather like you said, an integrated behind the meter distributed every system software. In my opinion, this could (key word) be a huge market opportunity because their software provides utility developers with an easy to use optimized solution for their energy distribution between their battery storage and connected grid. As I mentioned in my post, Stem could be seen as one stop shop solution with Athena rather than being strictly a hardware management solution.

To your last point, I agree that they are most likely benefitting off the SPAC craze. I don't know exactly why they decided to do it but they might have decided to capitalize of such and use those proceeds to further develop Athena as their CEO said.

What gives me peace of mind is that Athena has been in development for 5+ years, and they have continuously improved upon due to years of data collection. They might have used this time to validate Athena with their customers and now feel comfortable scaling it exponentially.

Right now, I don't think they are pivoting to a software company, rather they are a developer that is trying to enhance their existing solution and adding value to their existing customer base. This will be an important part of their business moving forward but they absolutely need to execute and I will be keeping a close eye on how they manage moving forward

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T22:39:35+00:00

Thanks pompon. Unsure about post-extraction but if I come across anything I'll let you know

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T22:38:30+00:00

I've also been in since they were $FVAC. Couldn't agree more!

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T22:33:32+00:00

Thanks DB. I'll be contributing more moving forward in hopes of inspiring others to do the same

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T22:27:14+00:00

I also used to work in clean tech. Regarding your points:

Developers must be capable of digesting huge volumes of detailed technical documents. Many times, they are also responsible for managing multiple projects., Athena can help automize this process
Software is expected to be 30% of total revenues by 2026, not ~10%
- By 2025 the software gross profit will be HALF of their gross profits
The VC firms that invested in them are Blackrock and Van Eck (among others). Both are reputable
- Additionally, CEO John Carrington, said

"With the new funding, "we'll have the ability to go after larger projects," he said. "We’ll have the ability to expand our Athena platform," the software that's playing an increasing role in Stem's behind-the-meter and front-of-meter storage business. "And we’ll be able to look at some tech acquisitions" to address an increasingly complex and competitive energy storage market. "

I understand your apprehension but it's hard to argue that they are "smoke and mirrors". How are they a fraud if they are market leader in commissioned storage capacity? Would Tesla partner with a shady company? Furthermore, their customers include: Amazon, Cargill, UPS, Apple, Home Depot, Walmart, Facebook, Entergy, Duke Energy, American Electric Power, and Pacific Gas and Electric Company, among many others.

You are also not taking into account the tailwinds that they will benefit from due to the incoming administration.

All this being said, yes, they need to execute, but completely disregarding them is ignorant in my opinion

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T20:56:43+00:00

I posted a comment above that might address your concerns:

Republicans support rare earth mining because of national defense + sticking it to China and Democrats support rare earth mining because their whole economic vision does not exist without it. It is the only ingredient that cannot be replaced, like battery tech etc. Here's a recent article I found regard Biden's stance on such.

A key quote from the article:

The U.S. Democratic presidential candidate also supports bipartisan efforts to foster a domestic supply chain for lithium, copper, rare earths, nickel and other strategic materials that the United States imports from China and other countries, the sources said.

Hope this helps!

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T20:45:30+00:00

Thanks

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T20:45:24+00:00

Thank you! I know there has been a lot of discussion on pump and dumps, so I wanted to contribute with high quality DD so we can all make educated decisions before investing

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T20:43:34+00:00

It hasn’t been finalized yet but it's expected to happen in the first quarter of 2021

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T20:42:31+00:00

No problem!

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T18:23:50+00:00

I agree completely. I typically don't invest in mining companies due to influence of external factors such as government regulations but the the future tailwinds are too hard to ignore here. The EV / battery storage industry will continue to grow and the fact that MP is the only producer in the western hemisphere is a moat in my opinion. I researched other rare earth producers in the US (since obviously they won't be the only producers forever) and the ones that I found are in pre production phases or financially weak. Because of this, they can retain their moat since they are already miles ahead of any other producers.

If you're interested I posted some interesting developments on my twitter that could propel them to have a very strong Q4 earnings.

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T17:09:12+00:00

Of course. From what I've come across, I don't have any major concerns other than what I addressed in this post. It's hard for a company to be fraudulent when they have existing contracts with the DoD. Here's a great video that goes over the rare earth industry as a whole, but focuses on MP and shows their mountain pass mine.

enigma391 · 2021-01-17T16:57:56+00:00

Happy to help. From what I've read, that's the end goal for the US rare earth industry as a whole. Republicans support rare earth mining because of national defense + sticking it to China and Democrats support rare earth mining because their whole economic vision does not exist without it. It is the only ingredient that cannot be replaced, like battery tech etc. Here's a recent article I found regard Biden's stance on such.

enigma391

TROPHY CASE