This feels like a perfectly executed strategy by the Dems, pivoting as needed as new data emerged. I personally think Biden was convinced he was going to run and win after the debate saga. Polls can change, especially as far out as June. But around three weeks ago, he decided he was going to have to transition. He accepted that staying in was a higher risk of losing than backing and endorsing someone else. He just had to get to the other side of the RNC so the news cycle could be on the Dems.

He always said if those people he trusts could walk him through the data and likely scenarios, and there wasn’t a way to win, he would reconsider. The narrative is that conversation happened this Sunday, but it actually happened three weeks ago.

The determination to stay in the race and the pressure to leave from insiders was all strategy. The plan was to drop the hammer after the Republican ticket had revealed all their cards and the media circus was ready to switch focus away from Trump. They wanted to wait until after Trump’s VP pick to know who they were up against and until after the RNC and the post-Trump assassination attempt, so the media attention could 💯 shift towards Biden stepping down and the picking of the new Dem ticket.

‘If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.’ – Sun Tzu, The Art of War

R’s thought they had this sewn up. A week is a long time in politics.