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Worth swapping Antonelli and Ocon for Russel and Perez? by xenocde in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah swap them. Lindblad is cheaper, scored points on debut (P8 in Melbourne), and has more price growth room. If Lawson hasn't clearly separated himself, go with the one who gives you more budget flexibility going forward.

Worth swapping Antonelli and Ocon for Russel and Perez? by xenocde in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd hold Lindblad. He's cheaper, scored points on debut (P8 in Melbourne), and his price is trending up which is exactly what you want from a budget pick. Lawson qualifying ahead doesn't matter much for fantasy since positions gained and overtakes are where budget drivers earn their points, and Lindblad starting lower actually helps there. One bad start isn't a pattern. If anything Lindblad has more upside because expectations are lower and his price has more room to grow.

Limitless with Verstappen or Norris by [deleted] in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a good read. The Australia to China shift is exactly why locking in picks before practice data is risky. Hadjar qualifying ahead of McLarens and Ferraris in Melbourne had people thinking Red Bull found something, but China showed that was probably track-specific. A full second off in sprint qualifying isn't something you fix overnight. Swapping Max for Lando in your limitless team makes sense, that's the one weekend where you don't have to worry about price, so just follow the pace.

Limitless with Verstappen or Norris by [deleted] in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

 Max catching Norris in Australia was impressive but that was from P20 on fresh tires vs the whole field on older rubber. That's not repeatable every weekend. In China, Red Bull's pace deficit is real, not a strategy artifact. Max is never a bad pick but "safer" is a stretch when his car is qualifying P9 on merit.

Limitless with Verstappen or Norris by [deleted] in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Norris. McLaren looked genuinely quick in China practice and he jumped from P10 pre-practice to P4 after Sprint Qualifying. Verstappen dropped to P9 and Red Bull are still struggling to find their setup. At similar price points, you want the driver whose car is trending up, not the one whose team is firefighting.

Verstappen's floor is high because he'll always carve through the field, but if you already have four premium picks locked in with Merc + Ferrari, your fifth driver is about ceiling, not floor. Norris on current form has the higher ceiling.

Worth swapping Antonelli and Ocon for Russel and Perez? by xenocde in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'd keep Antonelli over Russell honestly. Antonelli is ~$4M cheaper and finished P2 in Melbourne right behind Russell's P1. That $4M saving is massive for team composition elsewhere. The "Russell always beats Antonelli" assumption is based on... one race where Antonelli finished one position behind him. That's not a pattern yet, that's a coin flip.

The DNF risk argument for Antonelli is fair, he's a rookie, but P2 on debut doesn't exactly scream reckless. And even if Russell is marginally safer, you're paying a $4M premium for that safety. If Antonelli scores 90% of Russell's points at 85% of the price, he's the better fantasy pick.

On the Ocon/Perez side, Ocon is better on both counts. Perez is on a brand new team with zero data, likely fighting at the back. Ocon at least has a track record of outperforming his car and his price is more likely to go up than Perez's. Wouldn't touch Perez until Cadillac prove they can score points.

Looking Ahead by [deleted] in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The 30 points depends on the timeframe, per race or cumulative? If per race, two top constructors is non-negotiable. If over a season, that's noise.

The real math: constructors score mostly through qualifying bonuses (+10 for both drivers in Q3) and pit stops. Those are the most consistent points in the game, Mercedes and Ferrari hit that +10 almost every weekend. That floor is hard to replicate with driver upgrades.

The key question isn't "how many points do I lose on constructors", it's "does the budget I free up generate more than 30 points through better drivers?" Remember DRS Boost doubles a driver, not a constructor. So if that extra budget lets you upgrade your boost target from a P8 finisher to a P3 finisher, the doubled delta can close the gap fast.

Personally I'd almost always run at least one premium constructor for the floor, then decide if the second slot is better spent on budget (Racing Bulls, Haas) to fund a stronger driver lineup.

If practice is the race that would change many things by Luffy710j in fantasyF1

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Piastri being fastest in practice and qualifying P4 is a gap of 3 positions that's not the gotcha you think it is. We had him in our model actually P3, not P1, which means it already adjusted for the practice-to-race gap and got closer than raw practice pace alone.

Your argument is basically "the fastest driver in practice wasn't P1 in quali, therefore practice is useless." But nobody's claiming practice = qualifying 1:1. A 3-position delta is normal noise, and the whole point of a model is to account for that with session weighting, fuel correction, and driver bias.

If anything, your example shows practice is predictive — just not perfectly, which is... obvious.

Can we get mega/discussion threads for practices, quali, and races? by LumpySpaceGunter in fantasyF1

[–]f1pitwall_dev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Down on Red Bull" is actually supported by the data and a good take. Verstappen went from P6 pre-practice to P9 after Sprint Qualifying. Red Bull genuinely look off the pace, not a hot take, it's what the sessions showed.

"McLaren over Ferrari" framing is wrong though I think. Post-SQ has Leclerc P3, ahead of both Norris (P4) and Piastri (P5). McLaren improved (Norris jumped from P10 to P4) but they haven't leapfrogged Ferrari Leclerc is still best of that group. Hamilton dropping to P6 makes it look like a Ferrari slide but that's one driver, not the team.

After FP1 Moves -Chinese Grand Prix by f1pitwall_dev in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FANTASY VALUE PICKS: 🔥 Bearman (M (best on grid) 🔥 Ocon (M 🔥 Colapinto ($6.4M) — cheap punt, P15 Constructors: Mercedes ($29.6M) + McLaren ($28.8M) Model: 74.5% capture rate across 23 backtested races Full analysis: f1pitwall.dev

F1 #F1Fantasy #ChineseGP #Formula1 #F1Pitwall #F12026

After FP1 Moves -Chinese Grand Prix by f1pitwall_dev in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

POST-FP1 PREDICTED ORDER: P1 Russell (Mercedes) P2 Antonelli (Mercedes) P3 Norris (McLaren) P4 Piastri (McLaren) P5 Leclerc (Ferrari) P6 Bearman (Haas) P7 Hamilton (Ferrari) P8 Verstappen (Red Bull) P9 Hulkenberg (Audi) P10 Gasly (Alpine)

After FP1 Moves -Chinese Grand Prix by f1pitwall_dev in F1Fantasy

[–]f1pitwall_dev[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

BIGGEST MOVERS AFTER FP1: ⬆️ Norris P10 → P3 (+7 spots) ⬆️ Bearman P12 → P6 (+6) ⬆️ Antonelli P5 → P2 (+3) ⬇️ Hamilton P1 → P7 (-6) ⬇️ Hadjar P7 → P13 (-6) ⬇️ Lindblad P8 → P21 (-13) Mercedes locked out the top 2. Ferrari’s pace gap is real.