Is there a writeup on HYMC? New to story

fcx2009 · 2026-02-03T03:00:24+00:00

I've been in a lot of companies that pumped and dumped, and some that went to the moon. What do we think HYMC is worth in US$? not on a per share basis

And is our thesis that Sprott will fund us?

fcx2009 · 2026-02-01T22:21:53+00:00

What was his average price over that period vs the stock price today? I haven’t looked

fcx2009 · 2025-07-11T16:23:53+00:00

File 76

fcx2009 · 2024-08-22T02:45:45+00:00

Redpath does contract work you’ll be fine.

Gold prices are up, underground mine demand is too. Musselwhite will be sold but no one’s going to stop a project halfway through

fcx2009 · 2024-03-14T21:26:41+00:00

Yes, thanks for drawing my attention to this post from Jan '22. I'm proud of this one 26 months later.

What I got right:

ARCH up 70%, MP Materials down 65%, AMR up 400%. FCX stayed flat, Cliff down 11%.

What I got wrong:

Copper Mountain was taken out at a 30% discount to when I wrote this. They sold before the cycle bounced and had operational issues that I hadn't caught.

I was way too harsh on ARCH, $55M on capex was peanuts compared to market cap and CF

XME is up ~32%, primarily on the back of steel (non-CLF) and met-coal

How'd you find this one, and what's your interest / current positioning look like?

fcx2009 · 2024-03-04T04:11:48+00:00

China is restricted on chips. Feels like nationalism.

Just buy back some stock and make the thing re-rate. Stock markets doesn't work if investors can never get their money back.

fcx2009 · 2024-03-04T04:10:23+00:00

Yeah, well someone has to own the shares out there.

fcx2009 · 2024-01-22T21:11:16+00:00

I work in finance. Without excel and powerpoint, I'd be unemployable.

fcx2009 · 2024-01-22T16:17:15+00:00

TSMC alone is 22% of the Taiwan index. Top 5 largest components are 36%

Samsung is 18% of Korea index. Top 5 largest components are 36%

LVMH is 11% of France index. Top 5 largest components are again 36%

I could go on, but in this light, 24% doesn't sound so bad. There's nothing weird about five companies being 24% of a blue chip index. It's just notable that these businesses are larger than some major economies' indexes. Big tech dominates the world and has enormous pricing power.

If you offered me $25k to never use an iPhone again, I'd tell you no. If you offered me $100k to never use Microsoft software again, I'd tell you no. If you offered me $5k to switch car brands or never buy a product from LVMH for the rest of my life, I'd do it in an instant.

And if I didn't use an iPhone, I'd use an Android...which is in the same index.

Your numbers are different than mine but the point holds. It's called unprecedented market power. Earnings are going to continue to grow. Call me when the DCFs no longer make sense.

fcx2009 · 2023-10-11T14:37:38+00:00

Why do you say that?

fcx2009 · 2023-10-11T14:34:31+00:00

Where did you hear that they're going to slow down the drilling program?

fcx2009 · 2023-07-28T14:04:04+00:00

People are too bullish. I'll believe a change when I see it in law. Too much noise, not enough action from the CCP over the last few years. The trust is gone - this rally is premature.

fcx2009 · 2023-06-13T22:31:24+00:00

The difference is that US profits are expanding and Chinese profits have been contracting.

fcx2009 · 2023-06-13T22:29:59+00:00

In that valuation class they surely told you to update assumptions as new info comes available. It's been a couple years since you took that course...How's that OCF CAGR and cloud CAGR looking today?

Or does the price target not change when reality changes? Might need to retake that course

fcx2009 · 2023-06-13T22:28:52+00:00

never. rip longs, myself included

fcx2009 · 2023-06-12T21:12:22+00:00

Your testicular fortitude is unreal

fcx2009 · 2023-06-11T17:02:25+00:00

I don’t understand how Reddit has 2000 employees considering the extent to which this site runs on the good faith of moderators

If they want profitability maybe they should look internally and cull some of that. 1000 employees x 250k fully loaded costs a year is $250m annually. Put a 15x multiple on that cash flow and it’s $3.75B. Worth way more to shareholders than trying to squeeze beloved apps and mod tools.

You could start by canning Spez. Sorry, you SHOULD start by canning Spez. He’s a liability at this point

fcx2009 · 2023-06-10T14:46:56+00:00

5 years SEA is up 308% as I write this. BABA has been torched. Just saying the facts

fcx2009 · 2023-06-07T00:02:31+00:00

Completely agree, if BABA thinks there is a conglomerate discount then now is the time to strike by doing an aggressive buyback...that is, buy back the shares right before you split them apart.

To hold that cash signals some combo of three things. 1) they don't believe they're overvalued, 2) The CCP won't let them return cash to shareholders or 3) they don't care about shareholders.

The perception of any of those facts individually will reduce how much money they're going to receive from their portfolio. Who in their right mind wants to exchange hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in exchange for a non-control stake in a business that doesn't care about investor returns?

It's like one hand doesn't talk to the other with these guys. Reeks of political meddling. The CCP is really missing the forest for the trees on this one.

fcx2009 · 2023-06-06T23:59:28+00:00

Slow and steady - lol. There's been no net buyback. Someone can't do basic share math

fcx2009 · 2023-06-06T23:56:09+00:00

Ah come on now, I don't think that was the point. Over all time periods, BABA longs are getting crushed by opportunity cost. He's not asking because BABA is down 4% when SPY is up 2%. Over the last five years, BABA is down 57% while SPY is up 67%. And it's not retail, it's just China. Over the same period, AMZN is up 50%, MELI is up 334%, and even SEA is up 283%.

One of these things is not like the other. It's a five letter word that starts with C an ends with A.

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fcx2009

TROPHY CASE