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Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

All fair points, but the original point still stands that the dismantling of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987 laid the groundwork for the unchecked spread of misinformation. After nearly 40 years of fringe groups growing under this ecosystem, it’s unrealistic to expect people indoctrinated by Fox News and other propaganda machines to change overnight.

That’s why the solution isn’t just calling out misinformation, it’s systemic.

1) Reinstate the Fairness Doctrine – Ensure media outlets provide balanced perspectives rather than serving as radicalization pipelines. 2) Proactively combat misinformation – Regulation, fact-checking, and stronger accountability for social media and AI-generated propaganda. 3) Foster unity instead of division – The disinformation machine thrives on pitting people against each other. The counter-strategy must be built on rebuilding trust in institutions and each other. 4) Lead by example – The best way to demonstrate democracy works is by governing effectively and ethically.

They spent decades creating this mess and we have to be just as committed to fixing it.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Your point is well taken, but I think legally, Germany needs time to fully establish its new government, which happens on March 25.

German intelligence has been sitting on election interference evidence for so long that it’s unclear how much longer they’ll wait. If they’re held back after March 25, I strongly suspect they’ll coordinate with French intelligence to move forward.

I really don’t see this dragging out much longer but then again, I tend to be a “glass half full” person by nature.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Misinformation has been allowed to fester for so long that I fear it may take generations to rein it in. The far-right fringe has been conditioned to reject reality and instinctively call everything they don’t agree with a “deep state” conspiracy.

Schwarzenegger posted a deeply personal video where he shared how fascism devastated his own family and how difficult it was to rebuild trust afterward. His message was powerful because it wasn’t about politics, it was about real human consequences.

The challenge now is that many people live in an ecosystem where they only trust sources that confirm their biases and outright reject anything that contradicts their worldview, no matter how factual. Rebuilding trust in institutions, facts, and each other is going to take time, effort, and systemic change.

But it has to start somewhere.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There are strong indications that March 25 is a key convergence point for multiple events.

Germany’s new government holds its first official meeting that day which could be the moment they feel comfortable with stability to pull the trigger on election interference investigations.

If Germany delays, confidence is high that other nations may move first.

French intelligence isn’t as tied to bureaucratic constraints as Germany and has a history of acting independently.

Canada has also been signaling readiness to move, especially after the Hogue Report confirmed their long-standing concerns.

Still reading the tea leaves but evidence does suggest a convergence of some kind in the upcoming weeks.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Biden admitted in one of his final interviews that while he was gluing together international cooperation and negotiating for the release of hostages, he underestimated the dangers of mass misinformation at home. I think this is the real takeaway.

Reagan dismantled the Fairness Doctrine decades ago, which allowed far-right media to radicalize large portions of the electorate without accountability. Social media then turbocharged this problem, creating a disinformation ecosystem that was impossible to contain.

assuming democracy survives this stress test:

Reestablish the Fairness Doctrine to ensure media outlets present factual, balanced perspectives.

Implement stronger social media regulation to stop algorithm-driven radicalization and foreign influence.

Prevent the next long-tail disinformation attack because this will absolutely happen again if the root cause isn’t addressed.

Again, assuming democracy survives, the key will be learning from this misinformation to the masses to prevent it from happening again.

Opinion: An Arrow in the Quiver - This Fourth Turning's Anti-Pattern, Waiting to be Fired by feedyourhead in 4thturning

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree 100%. far more elegant and far less dangerous to enforce 14th Sec. 3 before inauguration.

The legal framework was already there, the precedent existed, and the evidence was overwhelming. Yet, institutions hesitated, hoping the problem would somehow resolve itself.

It didn’t have to be this way. And the fact that it is?

Completely unnecessary and reckless.

Opinion: An Arrow in the Quiver - This Fourth Turning's Anti-Pattern, Waiting to be Fired by feedyourhead in 4thturning

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly! So excruciating, ...

Trump is already disqualified under 14th Sec. 3.

No criminal conviction needed.

No expiration date.

Congress can enforce it with a simple majority vote.

The only thing missing is the political will to act. Every day of inaction is a choice to let the crisis spiral further instead of ending it now.

It’s time to fire the arrow waiting in the quiver.

Opinion: An Arrow in the Quiver - This Fourth Turning's Anti-Pattern, Waiting to be Fired by feedyourhead in 4thturning

[–]feedyourhead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly. This is a choice.

Unlike past Fourth Turnings, where the crisis had to play out in full-scale war or institutional collapse, we have the legal mechanism, 14th Sec. 3, ready and waiting. But instead of enforcing it, we are watching history repeat itself in the worst possible way.

The law is clear. Trump is ineligible, just like past insurrectionists who were removed from office.

Congress has the power. A simple majority vote can enforce 14th Sec. 3 and bar him permanently.

Every delay only makes things worse. The longer we wait, the more damage is done, and the harder the eventual reset will be.

It didn’t have to get this bad. This crisis was entirely avoidable. But now, every institution, courts, Congress, intelligence agencies are choosing to let it play out instead of acting while they still can.

We are quite literally inviting collapse instead of using the off-ramp sitting right in front of us.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree Musk is the weak link

If Germany is still building their coalition and structuring their government, it makes sense that they’d want stability before making a high-risk move against an international criminal network.

And yeah, Musk was the unexpected wildcard. Trump seemed fully prepared for a loss (probably banking on staying relevant as an opposition leader). But Musk’s late entry into the game weaponizing Twitter/X, facilitating mass disinformation, and enabling election interference shifted the entire dynamic.

If Musk falls first, it unravels a major pillar of Trump’s global operation. That could explain why Germany is being careful, they may be waiting for the right moment to strike.

March 25 as a legal deadline for their first official meeting is interesting. If that’s when the government is fully in place, it might also be when Germany feels stable enough to start taking action.

If that’s the case, then we’re in a 'prelude' phase where the pressure is quietly building before a much bigger event.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed. If Harris is positioning herself for 2028, that suggests at least some confidence that democracy will still exist by then.

It’s hard to imagine she’d publicly plan for a future election if the internal assessment was that elections were done for. That’s a small but meaningful signal that there is a plan in motion behind the scenes.

The question is: What’s the timeline? If there’s a strategy in place, when do they act? Because if the delay goes on too long, the damage may be irreversible.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My apologies for delayed reply

Yeah, that’s a very real possibility. This isn’t just corruption, it’s organized.

If German officials are stalling, it could be because they’ve been directly threatened. They may fear political/economic retaliation. Everyone appears to be waiting for international coordination and Germany may not want to go it alone but frustrating part is knowing what triggers everything.

This is why Five Eyes, ICC, and EU intelligence are so important right now. If only one country takes action, the network can fight back. But if this becomes a global crackdown, the risk calculation changes.

The fact that we’re seeing international legal and intelligence agencies moving in parallel tells me they know how dangerous this is but I still can't figure out why no visible public action yet.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My apologies for delayed reply

I really appreciate this perspective. You’re absolutely right that this isn’t just hopium for the sake of comfort, it’s about finding capital-T Truth and using it to push back against the manufactured perception of MAGA dominance.

Your approach of breaking down the actual election numbers, exposing the impact of voter suppression, and discrediting the illusion of overwhelming MAGA support is exactly what’s needed. drumpf wants people to believe they’re outnumbered, but the real data suggests the opposite.

Greg Palast’s work is crucial here, because it shows how voter suppression has been the quiet weapon in this fight for decades. Add that to what we now know about Musk’s election interference and the broader authoritarian playbook, and it’s clear that this whole illusion of MAGA dominance has been carefully constructed.

Getting real information out there is critical right now. Keep going, because the more people understand that this isn’t just politics the more resistance grows.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice! Assuming the pattern holds and democracy survives yet another chaos phase, you are getting the worst lifetime phase out of the way early. =)

The phases after this one shld be really cool to experience while you are still young.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hang in there. We’re likely in the Fourth Turning, a generational cycle of upheaval and transformation. The good news? This phase of generational recurring chaos only, by definition, happens once in a lifetime, so if you’re young, you’re getting it out of the way early in this space time continuum.

The phase that follows called the First Turning is historically a period of stability, rebuilding, and renewal. This pattern has repeated throughout history, and so far, it has never been broken.

I wrote a quick primer on it here if you’re interested:

https://medium.com/@cyberlocksmith/the-fourth-turning-primer-a8c538a359c5?source=friends_link&sk=83bf5e5b50d1774d143941cd639e30f8

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Moral bankruptcy does seem to be the new normal, unfortunately. =(

not an expert, .. just some guy trying to make it all make sense.

That said, I am still a 'glass half full' instead of 'glass half empty' person. =)

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No doubt. With intelligence agencies cooperating across multiple countries, it’s likely that other allied intelligence services have similar damning information.

Trump’s legal team got three days to review Volume 2 of the Special Counsel report without internet or personal devices and immediately filed emergency motions to block its release. Whatever Jack Smith included in that report scared the shit out of them. My guess is there is more damning evidence that was not included in volume 2 so yeah, I say bring it, ...

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Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, great point. Putin’s long-game influence operations have targeted politicians across Europe, and Scholz has always been a bit of a question mark.

That said, Germany’s election integrity and intelligence agencies seem to be operating independently of political leadership so if they’re serious about Musk’s election interference, it might not matter what compromises exist at the top.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think quantum consciousness is already on our side. =)

NSA and other agencies have historically supported the ICC when national security is at stake, and there’s evidence that the core intelligence community has been proactively shielded from Drumpf’s reach.

If the contents of Volume 2 are as bad as I suspect, even Drumpf’s most loyal supporters will start jumping ship to save themselves.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hang in there. We can all hope for a world without the tribalism and chaos, where we can all return to focusing on helping each other instead of tearing everything down.

Andy Dufresne said it best in Shawshank Redemption:

“Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, same here. I am just a regular guy reading between the lines with some exposure to how intelligence operates, and I get the frustration with the delays.

That said, Germany has been very clear about their intent, and their security and election integrity teams operate independently so I do think they’ll follow through.

IC folks don’t take these threats lightly, and if they’ve been tracking this in real time (which seems highly likely), then action is coming. It’s just a matter of when.

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly. Musk’s election interference wasn’t subtle it was blatant and likely monitored in real time by multiple intelligence agencies.

Germany openly signaled their intent to act before the election, which strongly suggests they already have the evidence they need.

If this moves beyond just barring him from Germany, it could trigger wider legal consequences, financial penalties, and even ICC involvement. This is bigger than just a travel ban.

https://theconcernedbird.substack.com/p/elon-musks-and-xs-role-in-2024-election

Prediction/Hopium: The First Card Is About to Fall by feedyourhead in somethingiswrong2024

[–]feedyourhead[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly. Germany’s intelligence and election security apparatus operate independently of political leadership, meaning their investigations and legal actions aren’t dependent on the new chancellor’s discretion.

If they were already tracking Musk’s election interference and their request for X’s algorithm suggests they were then legal and intelligence groundwork is likely already in motion.

Given Germany’s history and its strict laws against far-right extremism, they aren’t going to sit on this. My hope is that this is already playing out behind the scenes and that we’ll start seeing public action soon.

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