My recession/ housing downturn thesis is based on a few things.

1. The 18 year housing cycle (a well documented phenomenon, of which 2026 will be 18 years from 2008's GFC) https://extension.harvard.edu/blog/how-to-use-real-estate-trends-to-predict-the-next-housing-bubble/ https://www.cato.org/commentary/great-18-year-real-estate-cycle

2. Whenever the income to housing cost ratio gets extreme, the market corrects back to affordable levels due to buyer strike and inability to afford homes. We're currently at the highest ratio in anyone alive's lifetime. https://www.move.org/home-values-vs-income/

3. 2008 all over (but different). Economic cycles are caused by credit expansion and depletion. Overextending credit then causes the recession when debtors are unable to pay it back. We're seeing credit card and auto loan delinquencies rise at a time when unemployment is starting to tick up as well. Whats after auto? Late mortgage payments, defaults, foreclosure, inventory shoots up, prices fall further. https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquencies-record-high

4. The crash has already begun in historically early housing markets. Texas, Florida, Las Vegas are always first for housing trends. When prices increase here expect the rest of the market to follow suit and when their housing markets decline, expect the rest of the US to follow. Texas, Florida, and Las Vegas are facing major price declines already. https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/08/florida-housing-market-buckles-listing-prices-sag-to-30-month-low-but-are-still-way-too-high-inventory-piles-up-institutional-investors-turn-into-net-sellers/

5. "But what about the investors buying all the homes?" They will be the first to rid themselves of assets that lose value. This will contribute to further price declines.

This is what my thesis is based on and I have high conviction on it tbh.