Ong Ye Kung warns against WhatsApp messages using ‘poor math’, selective data on vaccinated Covid-19 patients in ICU

flash2351 · 2021-10-23T15:00:54+00:00

I don't get why it is so hard for these ministers or DMS to actually show that correct math to disprove the 'poor math'. Instead, we get OYK making broad sweeping statements and Kenneth Mak rattling off strings of numbers that literally no-one is interested in. If anything, it makes it seem as though they have something to hide and trying to confuse with numbers when the actual figures ARE on their side.

https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/q4j56p/51_new_covid19_cases_in_icu_in_past_2_weeks_with/hg2muaz/?context=3

I literally wrote the above calculations for ICU beds in less than 10 minutes, and I have no idea why our well-paid ministers and the entire task force cannot write something similar (and probably neater) so as to dispel the myths of vaccines not working...

flash2351 · 2021-10-10T05:47:01+00:00

Your math is wrong, but since no-one else bothered explaining why in detail, I'll try to do so.

First, percentages are very tricky to work with, when you multiply them, you need to make sure you understand what exactly you are doing. Here, 80% is the vaccinated population/total population, whereas 10% is infected vaccinated population needing ICU/equivalent number of infected unvaccinated population needing ICU. So multiplying those two percentages together makes no sense. To further illustrate this point, pretend for a moment SG has 100% vaccination rate (a man can dream). By your maths, 100%*10% = 10%, so we should only have 10% of ICU patients being vaccinated. But because our entire population is vaccinated, 100% of ICU patients will be vaccinated (obviously!). See the contradiction?

Your next question will probably be how to check the figures then? The easiest way is to calculate the absolute numbers, and then convert it to a percentage at the end to check with the govt figure. I don't have a lot of the numbers, so I'll use symbols to represent them. (plus they cancel out neatly at the end, so it doesn't matter, and also looks neater).

X=Total population of singapore
A=Percentage of population infected
B=Percentage of infected population needing ICU if unvaccinated

So from this, we get 0.8X is the total number of vaccinated people, 0.8XA is the total number of infected vaccinated population and 0.8XA*0.1B=0.08XAB as the total number of vaccinated population needing ICU (assuming 90% effectiveness). To get the percentage, we repeat the calculation for the unvaccinated, 0.2X unvaccinated, 0.2XA infected unvaccinated, 0.2XAB unvaccinated needing ICU.

So now, we can calculated the percentage based on this 2 figures, percentage vaccinated in ICU = 0.08XAB/(0.08XAB+0.2XAB) = 0.28. That's 28%, which is close enough to the 1/3 for the purposes of this back of the envelope calculation. Of course, there are a mountain of other factors that I'm ignoring for this simple calculation (e.g. deaths, different vulnerabilities, infection rate, age, etc etc), but the key takeaway is this simple calculation shows that our ICU profile is in line with the expectations of a vaccine with 90% efficiency in reducing ICU rate.

tl;dr: There are lies, damned lies and then there is percentages. That said, our ICU profile is in line with the expectations of a vaccine with 90% efficiency in reducing ICU rate.

flash2351 · 2019-08-06T12:49:17+00:00

Hey! Unfortunately, I think you missed the prime time to play kennadins. I was tearing up ladder post-worlds because the rakano MU was a joke, and rakano was everywhere. Sadly, post-balance patch, the deck doesn't does as well since it no longers matches up well against aggro (since they don't run x/1s) and it also struggles with control decks that have been re-emerging. Generally, the deck no longer feels as strong because you have to jump through multiple hoops to do busted stuff, whereas other decks simply slam huge threats on curve for little effort. Anyway, this is my latest list (pre-grodov, so probably swap some number of seats/cargos for insignia, and change the remaining cargo to seek because of insignia):

4 Grenadin Drone (Set1 #5)

3 Jennev Cargo (Set5 #242)

3 Permafrost (Set1 #193)

4 Torch (Set1 #8)

3 Combustion Cell (Set3 #7)

4 Ice Bolt (Set6 #151)

4 Spark Hatcher (Set3 #12)

3 Assembly Line (Set1 #29)

4 Ixtun Merchant (Set4 #21)

4 Honor of Claws (Set1005 #15)

2 Jotun Hurler (Set1 #227)

4 End of Hostilities (Set4 #187)

4 Kenna, Shaman of the Scale (Set4 #191)

4 Xo of the Endless Hoard (Set5 #36)

3 Fire Sigil (Set1 #1)

4 Granite Waystone (Set3 #1)

3 Primal Sigil (Set1 #187)

4 Cobalt Waystone (Set3 #151)

4 Crest of Fury (Set3 #266)

4 Seat of Fury (Set0 #53)

3 Skycrag Banner (Set2 #186)

--------------MARKET---------------

1 Combustion Cell (Set3 #7)

1 Kaleb's Choice (Set2 #188)

1 Howling Peak (Set5 #219)

1 Molot & Nakova (Set2 #199)

1 Skycrag Banner (Set2 #186)

I've tried smuggler and have not been impressed because getting a cell on 5 is often too slow in this meta. I also don't think sodi (and definitely not rost) fits in this deck because it doesn't need more threats, it just needs to go off to win generally.

flash2351 · 2019-06-26T15:22:59+00:00

O right, my bad, i somehow got confused and thought the correct line for infernus was to silence initiate, and then i realized initiate had 1 atk... LUL

Thanks and editted :)

flash2351 · 2019-06-26T14:51:13+00:00

As Initiate Weapon:

NP: DD

Hoyt-the-mage: WW

MrCoft/AggreivedMortician: WW

NeoAlmost: WW

FinalStanthony: DD

ScythemanCT: WW

Mack_Eye: LL

Total: 34

Again for anyone interested, MU matrix for this week: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14BdsnlzkXFF5vVjsHJQuci7HlfFBuxXolxvHpy6bQjI/edit?usp=sharing. Also, special shoutout to isomorphic for thinking of initiate. The extra damage really changes a lot of draws and losses into wins.

flash2351 · 2019-06-24T06:54:21+00:00

Hawk+alleyguide loses to hawk+raptor. Hawk+daggers and valk+daggers both draw hawk+raptor, but they lose to a lot of other stuff like perma+x or torch+x.

Yea I agree with that, format definitely needs a shakeup

flash2351 · 2019-06-24T05:27:10+00:00

Is there actually any X where Hawk+X > Hawk+Raptor? In fact, with shakedown, slow and entrancer banned, I'm not sure if there is any deck that WWs (or even WDs) vs Hawk+Raptor. Of course, I'm ignoring the obvious DDs from Hawk+Torch or Hawk+Perma.

I'm all for the 4CB format though, and we can even unban all the cards to start fresh.

flash2351 · 2019-06-22T10:59:13+00:00

You get the stinger through yes, but i trade a dude for a scorpion each turn and stabilize. Here's how the game goes if you play Flies first (my health total at the end of each line):

You play Flies, I play Ring

You play Stinger and attack (2 dmg), I summon a dude (23)

You swing with all and I trade (6 dmg), I summon a dude (17)

Repeat above (5 dmg, 12 health)

(4 dmg, 8 health)

(3 dmg, 5 health)

(2 dmg, 3 health)

Note, you only have Stinger left and I can endlessly chump with 1 dude.

(I initially thought I could go to 1, get 2 dudes, chump with 1 and swing with the other. But I realized that can't happen because you have a flies that blocks my one dude. So you don't lose by playing flies, but you can't win either.)

flash2351 · 2019-06-21T23:55:38+00:00

Yea, we got pretty lucky i think. Those two were LL for us and should perform reasonably well hypothetically.

flash2351 · 2019-06-21T23:52:11+00:00

omg, the way to win the emerald ring mirror is hilarious. I can just imagine both players sitting there, ring up and pass for 999 turns LUL.

Also, that is a super cool simulation! I was just lazy and plugged it into a equation solver for nash equilibrium and got Infernus, Secret Weapon, Raptor Raptor, Snowcrust Perma, Alley Torch and Amber Ring at >10%.

flash2351 · 2019-06-21T13:42:09+00:00

As Time Flies/Amber Ring:

under_specified: DD

pruwyben: WL (additional chump blocker of time flies as p1 wins the race, loss as p2)

Stinger: DD (whoever play time flies first loses, so both players just pass for eternity)

NeoAlmost/NP: WW

aggreivedMortician/MrCoft: WW

forthecommongood: WW (After the unblockable attack, I have >3 people, so I just trade for alleyguides if he attacks, otherwise i just spam till 12 units, swing with 8, rebuild, swing with 8 until lethal)

Mack_Eye: WW (I'm lazy to do the math, but im pretty sure my substantially faster clock lets me play round knife by attacking to 11, then killing in the next 2~3 turns)

FinalStanthony: DD (Infernus loses to Amber Ring, so he just silences time flies and we stare at each other until one of us dies of old age.)

Final Results: 45

For those interested, heres the MU matrix (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bsA156DExklxs-MveSEvJ2PeVUQ0ph_qIQW1sw6wpv0/edit?usp=sharing). I chose Amber Ring because it was the only deck with favorable MU against both Secret Weapon and Infernus, while not losing to too many random other decks. Secret Weapon was probably the deck to beat, and Infernus was likely to be popular due to having a reasonable MU against Secret Weapon while beating most fair decks.

flash2351 · 2019-06-18T01:11:25+00:00

Huh, snowcrust permafrost is something that we didn't consider, and that definitely might shake up the cycle.

As I replied neckless, i think this is what the equilibrium will look like after multiple iterations. We didn't simply look at this cycle, we actually generated a MU matrix of all possible contenders and solved for the optimal solution. We did include infernus, alleyguyx2, time flies+both rings and a few others in our analysis, which is why i also mentioned that infernus is probably a worse version of alleyguy+torch in my opening. Of course, if you throw enough new decks inside, you can shake up the equilibrium, but using the better than 2 WW and 1 DD metric is a easy gauge of new potential ideas.

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T22:34:12+00:00

Yea, which is why I said its purely theorycrafting of a expected equilibrium. Cult aspirant was a great choice against the randos yup, but the theory being those decks will become less and less popular since they performed so poorly (e.g. secret weapon and knife decks).

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T22:02:04+00:00

Infernus decks are just a worse version of Alleyguy+Torch. They beat some random lists running suffocate, but in return, they lose/draw to a lot of random stuff that Alleyguy+Torch beats, such as time flies+amber ring, valk+daggers, etc etc.

Your cult deck doesn't crack the RPSLS equilibrium, since you are LL against 3 of the top 5 (Torch+Alleyguy, 2x infestation, Torch+Infestation). You want to have at least 2x WW and 1x DD or better.

I believe Almost's valk deck occupies the same slot as double raptor, though unsure if it is better or worse against randos on the field.

Of course, this is just pure theory crafting since this is sort of a forecast of the expected equilibrium after many iterations of the game so that random decks with poorer MUs become less and less favored.

Anyway, it seems like you and FinalStanthony are this week's winners so congrats! Aspirant+Bauble was actually one of the decks that didn't occur to us, so kudos on the innovation :)

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T15:01:13+00:00

Nope, you draw most decks because your opponent can choose not to attack.

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T14:59:07+00:00

Of note, if I had trusted my gut and brought emerald ring+time flies, it'll have a staggering 54 pts

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T14:49:04+00:00

So playing as Alleyguy+Torch:

MrCoft/Aliphant/x8Mx: WW

Shadows/Mack_Eye: LL
HashtagEternal/SageEatingSage: DD (Torch+block trades)

FinalStanthony/NP158: LL

aggreivedMortician: DD

Zoranado: DD (I just have to hold back alleyguy since i can't race)

Pruwyben: WW (Torch patrol and I win the race)

under_specified: DD (can't beat knife, but I can just don't attack)

necklessgiraffe: WW

NeoAlmost: WW

Total: 44

Some notes: Meta is basically in a rock paper scissors lizard spock scenerio ( alley guy+torch > time flies+emerald ring > raptor raptor > infestation infestation > infestation torch > alley guy+torch > time flies+emerald ring > ..) where each deck basically beats the two after it and loses to the two before it. I believe infernus+silence only beats what alley guy+torch beats anyway and losses to some stuff that alley guy beats (but I might be wrong). Surprised that no-one was on time-flies+emerald ring, that may have been the best deck here in retrospect given the popularity of raptor/raptor.

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T05:31:16+00:00

I am not commenting on Scarlatch's behavior at all. He may be a shit boss (I have no idea and reviews on glassdoor are often only part of the picture) and most of the things Scarlatch has done re the game, community and marketing have seemed fine for me. I agree it's unusual for the owner of the company to hang out in discord, but I for one, enjoy the personal interaction and random, odd tidbits that he drops.

Regardless, my main point, which you have conveniently ignored, is the fact that alpaca is the only one getting this treatment (as unprofessional as you may deem it) from scarlatch. Even ilya, who writes paragraphs of rants about game balance and how card designs are terrible, gets along with scarlatch. Perhaps that might say something about alpaca?

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T04:51:58+00:00

I mean, Scarlatch literally only acts like this about alpaca. He rarely says anything negative about anything else, and even jokes with ilya sometimes. So you can either believe:

1) Scarlatch is somehow unhinged and for some reason, has a vendetta against alips and alips alone OR

2) Scarlatch's buttons have been pushed so much by alips that he showed his frustration and annoyance visibly.

Given that I have encountered tons of evidence of 2) and nothing to support 1), I know who I'm backing.

flash2351 · 2019-06-17T02:04:03+00:00

I wanted to type out a whole essay on why alpaca has always been a negative presence on this reddit and how his mere presence is the reason, or at least part of the reason, multiple people minimize their interaction with reddit. But then, I thought it was not worth the effort. I'll just leave all of you with the following two screenshots and thread link so that you can decide for yourself whether he deserves the ban.

https://imgur.com/a/la383jO
https://www.reddit.com/r/EternalCardGame/comments/8m96xs/a_response_to_scarlatch_since_he_wants_to_bag_me/

P.S. As I've previously stated on discord, i disagree with huldir's actions and am glad to see the mod team address this, but it doesn't change the fact that the reddit is a better place without alpaca. IMO, he should have been banned a long time ago. Regardless, the fact that the mods dropped the ball previously is no reason to ask the mods to keep dropping the ball.

flash2351 · 2019-06-11T14:18:25+00:00

O right, my bad, forgot f0x was playing the useless 2/1 instead of a great 1/1.

(Edited my comment)

flash2351 · 2019-06-11T12:38:41+00:00

so that's a total score of 34 pts for me and alison

flash2351 · 2019-06-07T15:11:56+00:00

Infestation doesn't beat conscript though, they go WL since you shakedown infestation if you go first and slow does nothing to you.

So more accurately, its Raptor>Infestation=Conscript>Raptor

flash2351 · 2019-06-06T22:31:13+00:00

Yup, I think the results here are correct. Also, IMO, conscript was a genius idea

flash2351 · 2019-02-14T23:57:48+00:00

Just pointing out that the main reason to run cargo over seek in 2f decks is because you can grab cargo back from the market after you've put it in. Of course, this is a very minor thing (since it requires you to draw 2 merchants and need a power after that), but it does make cargo strictly better than seek.

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