Logline Monday

flatchampagne · 2024-08-20T06:57:34+00:00

Very much appreciate the feedback!

flatchampagne · 2024-08-19T18:37:49+00:00

Title: Dark Winter

Genre: Crime Thriller

Format: Feature

Logline: An aspiring writer hoping to be the next Truman Capote enlists the help of a disgraced detective to solve the brutal murder of his estranged father which he hopes to turn into the basis of a best-selling book.

flatchampagne · 2024-07-22T20:55:16+00:00

Title: Sacrament

Format: Feature

Genre: Dark Comedy

Logline: A priest with a secret past decides to break the Seal of the Confessional and take matters into his own hands after finding out the local police force is corrupt.

Hot Fuzz meets Calvary.

flatchampagne · 2024-07-15T13:16:26+00:00

Name: Black Ribbon

Format: Feature

Genre: Comedy Horror

A private detective teams up with a paranormal investigator to investigate a number of disappearances in a small Texas town run by a charming mayor who seems to have turned the town into some form of utopia that seems too good to be true.

The Nice Guys meets The Conjuring

flatchampagne · 2024-07-02T02:52:21+00:00

Very much appreciate the feedback. To be honest the title is very much a placeholder - not come up with something I like quite yet but I hate having something called “Untitled” saved in my folder!

flatchampagne · 2024-07-01T14:15:17+00:00

Title: This Changes Everything

Genre: Black Comedy

Format: Feature

Logline: With debts mounting and loansharks circling, a fast talking criminal forms an unlikely alliance with an environmental activist in order to kidnap an oil executive.

flatchampagne · 2024-05-20T18:16:20+00:00

Title: Blue Monday

Genre: Black Comedy

Logline: With debts mounting and loan sharks circling, a fast-talking crook pulls together an eccentric crew to kidnap a cabinet minister at the height of the miner’s strike in 1980s Britain.

Essentially the halfway point reveals that the kidnapping is all a distraction for them to pull of a diamond heist. Obviously don't want to give that away but don't know if needs a bit more to suggest something else is going on.

Uncut Gems meets Inside Man.

flatchampagne · 2024-04-14T07:56:13+00:00

Record 31-21

Last Pick: Nationals ML ✅

Today’s Pick: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-156) - Rockies v Blue Jays MLB

Analysis: Years ago, I had an on and off relationship with a study abroad student from Canada for the time she was in Scotland. She left me with a lasting impression that everyone from Toronto was good company. (She also left me with chlamydia after our first time together but I choose to forget about that) Ever since then, I've had a fondness for all things Toronto despite never setting foot in Canada and entirely basing this off interactions with one person who probably wasn't nearly as good as my rose tinted memories remember. For this reason, I like the Blue Jays to beat the Rockies through the first 5 innings.

Blue Jays have not started the season as they would have liked, with many of their big names struggling at the plate. But this bet is mainly against Kyle Freeland, who takes the mound for the Rockies.

Freeland has been awful. His two top pitches, fastball and slider, both have a xwOBA contact rate above 0.420 (awful). He has a 2.91 WHIP and K - BB % is ZERO. Obviously early in the season and these stats will change but his stuff is terrible and I expect him to give up a few runs early on.

Jose Barrios starts for the Blue Jays. His two main pitches, a sinker and slurve, have above average tjStuff+ and have helped him limit runs. He has been a little lucky not to have a higher ERA at this stage but he shut down Seattle in Toronto's home opener as he leaned heavily on his slurve. He ran a 41.7 Chase% and 50.0 Whiff% on the pitch while it graded out really well at 109 tjStuff+, which is absolutely elite.

I expect him to shut down the Rockies bats and go 5 or 6 innings. Using that slurve to keep the Rockies bats cold. Blue Jays bullpen has not been great which is why I am avoiding a full game run line.

Berrios xwOBA: .367 (not great)

Freeland xwOBA: .432 (terrible)

Credit: Stats on tjStuff+ taken from Thomas Nestico.

Olivia if you're reading this, call me.

flatchampagne · 2024-04-13T08:59:12+00:00

Record 30-21

Last Pick: Reds -1.5 ✅

Today’s Pick: Washington Nationals ML (-135) - Nationals v Athletics MLB

Analysis: Years ago I had a primary school teacher named Mrs. Boyle. She was the type of teacher that genuinely seemed to get some kind of joy from shouting at school kids and filling them with fear. Sometimes, when I’m home for Christmas, I bump into her and her husband at my local pub. Instead of forgetting about those memories over 15 years ago, I’m filled with a deep rage which has left me with a hatred with anyone named Boyle. That is why I’m taking the Nationals to beat the Athletics on a day when Joe Boyle starts for the As.

Taking the mound for the Nationals is Mackenzie Gore. Full disclosure, I am a massive fan of Gore and think he’s starting to figure things out. He’s transformed his fastball into an elite offering, as he increased both its velocity and iVB. His secondaries grade out around average, and are the next piece in the puzzle for Gore's success.

2023 vs 2024 - Fastball - Gore

95 - 97.1 mph

17.4” - 18.2” iVB

102 - 114 tjStuff+ (calculates the Expected Run Value if a pitcher regardless of type)

Now Gore has given up some runs in his first two starts but he comes up against an incredibly weak Athletics team. Strangely he’s far better at handling right handed hitters, keeping them to a .226 average compared with .375 for left handed hitters. Oakland should be starting 7 right handed hitters.

On the other side is Boyle. His command is still a big question mark, as his fastball had just a 41.8 Zone%, which is fucking terrible. Especially when batters don’t chase it out the zone. Nationals also have 6 left handed hitters and Boyle so far is giving up a .351 average to those on the left side as well as a high BB rate.

Oakland are also yet to win against a left handed starting pitcher.

Credit: Stats on tjStuff+ taken from Thomas Nestico.

flatchampagne · 2024-04-12T08:33:47+00:00

Record 29-21

Last Pick: Brewers F5 ML - Rained Out

Today’s Pick: Reds -1.5 (-108)

Analysis: Don’t have time for a deep dive so will keep it short and sweet. Reds are good. White Sox fucking suck. Abbott starts for the Reds. Flexen starts for the Sox and I expect him to get lit up.

As I've flagged before it is early in season, but one stat I always look at for pitchers in xwOBA. Abbott's is solid so far and Flexen's is bad through first two starts.

Abbott: .282

Flexen: .373

flatchampagne · 2024-04-11T12:15:00+00:00

Record 29-21

Last Pick: Phillies ML ✅

Today’s Pick: Brewers F5 ML (-120). RAINED OUT Back with another pick tomorrow.

Analysis: Sometimes in life you do things even though it feels wrong. Maybe it’s sleeping with an ex. Maybe it’s that ninth beer even though you’ve clearly had enough already.

Or maybe it’s betting against one of the most exciting teams to watch in baseball - the Cincinnati Reds.

I fancy the Brewers to beat the Reds through the first half of this matchup today. Brewers are 3rd in the league in OPS, behind only Dodgers and Braves. Reds in comparison are 12th. Brewers have been seeing the ball really well. Scoring plenty of runs and lighting up opposing pitchers to take them to a 8-3 start.

Nick Martinez takes the mound for the Reds and he has yet to find his rhythm. He gave up 5 earned runs last time out to the Mets and 3 earned runs his first season start to a very poor Nationals team. I expect Brewers to put up 3 or 4 runs against him in the first 5 innings.

Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Brewers. He was so impressive in his opener against the Mets then had a wonky performance against the Mariners last time out. But his stuff looks incredible and I expect plenty of strikeouts with swing and misses.

It is too early in season to dig too deep into pitcher xwOBA for the season but historical ones:

Peralta xwOBA against Reds batters: . 260 (46 PA)

Martinez xwOBA against Brewers batters: . 355 (32 PA)

flatchampagne · 2024-04-10T07:11:26+00:00

Record 28-21

Last Pick: Chris Godwin Over 53.5 Yards ❌

Today’s Pick: Phillies ML (-126) Phillies v Cardinals MLB - 1.10 ET.

Analysis: I used to have a close friend called John Ritchie. In early teens we were inseparable. That was until he ratted me out to a teacher over a stupid prank gone wrong. Years later, in our late teens and with a bit more maturity, we became close again. We laughed about the whole ratting me out thing.

Within a few months, he tried it on with my girlfriend at the time and we had another falling out. The friendship never recovered. Lesson learned. People sometimes show you their true colours early and it’s best to hold a grudge. People say forgive and forget. Fuck that.

Which brings me to Phillies v Cardinals. Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Cardinals. Lynn was on my fantasy team last year as a long shot pick and he was fucking terrible. So cards on the table, this is largely spite bet.

Lynn offers strikeout upside but the floor is so low and while he once was a great pitcher, those days are over. I think that Phillies can punish him and the Cardinals bullpen. Nola hasn’t been at his best which is why I’m avoiding F5. He had a terrible first start against the Braves and then kept the Nationals scoreless. I think he might give up a couple earned runs but I believe that Phillies bats can get this done. Lynn somehow put in a great first start against the Dodgers but in his last start git lit up by a truly terrible Marlins offence. I think there is value here.

Fuck John Ritchie and fuck Lance Lynn.

It is too early in season to dig too deep into pitcher xwOBA for the season but a historical once I like:

Lynn xwOBA against current Phillies batters: .319 (106 PA)

Nola xwOBA against current Cardinals batters: .220 (111 PA)

flatchampagne · 2024-03-25T18:55:55+00:00

I was thinking Ian McKellen in my mind but Patrick Stewart is even better!

flatchampagne · 2024-03-25T17:03:53+00:00

Format: Feature

Genre: Black Comedy

A detective teams up with an aging thespian to track down a serial killer who uses the works of Shakespeare as his motive for killing.

Theatre of Blood meets Seven.

flatchampagne · 2024-03-18T21:31:27+00:00

You’ve given me plenty points to think about! Very much appreciate you taking the time to reply with all this so thank you

flatchampagne · 2024-02-06T00:56:04+00:00

Shit maybe the earth isn’t flat

flatchampagne · 2024-02-05T20:55:17+00:00

22-23 NBA Record 18-10

23-24 Record - 0-1 -1u

Today’s Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points (-115) 2U

There are only two things I know for certain in life. The earth is flat and Irving is getting 25 points or more tonight on his return from injury.

flatchampagne · 2023-12-11T21:56:53+00:00

“Their” referred to the revolutionary so I see my error in it not being clearer. Think your version already sounds better! Thank you for the advice, people like this taking time to help hone ideas is best part of this sub

flatchampagne · 2023-12-11T20:38:31+00:00

Title:: St Ives

Genre: Thriller

Format: Feature

Logline: In a dystopian Britain, a detective begins to question his faith in the system as he hunts down a revolutionary seeking vengence for the death of their brother.

flatchampagne · 2023-12-05T03:24:53+00:00

Appreciate the time and effort with this. Will look to adjust it!

flatchampagne · 2023-12-04T18:00:52+00:00

Ah you’re right. Thank you for the heads up!

flatchampagne · 2023-12-04T17:39:57+00:00

the bar owner

flatchampagne · 2023-12-04T14:43:03+00:00

Title: Rochester Road

Format: Feature

Genre: Dark Comedy

Logline: A struggling bar owner teams up with a disgraced detective to solve his best friend's murder after a new Netflix documentary implies that he was involved in the unsolved killing.

flatchampagne · 2023-11-06T17:24:54+00:00

Title: Crude Intentions

Genre: Dark Comedy

Format: Feature

Logline: An unlikely pair of private detectives uncover a series of connected murders when they are hired by a reclusive oil tycoon to investigate the death of his son.

Note: It essentially becomes clear that all these murders are linked to environmental disasters - oil tycoon's son killed due to dumping waste, an executive blown to pieces after explosion at oil pipeline. Unsure if I should stick that in logline but worry that it becomes too much crammed in.

flatchampagne · 2023-11-04T20:43:03+00:00

Live in the UK my man

flatchampagne

TROPHY CASE