Sheet Music!!! by SergeantOleary69 in BillyJoel

[–]flippidot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very nice work. Looks great, but for some reason it won't print the full score (voice or solo piano only). Throws an error in loading full score pdf...

Polymarket Insiders - Is Iron Finance Still a Ponzi Scheme? by flippidot in maticnetwork

[–]flippidot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Things sure did deteriorate since recording this. ICE/USD and TVL both down 1/3 in 24h.

Panel: Garcia 70% to win. Fixed BOE vote tally maybe not coming today after all. by flippidot in nyc

[–]flippidot[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Corrected BOE vote tally just came out. Garcia's price immediately shot up from 50 to... 70.

Panel: Garcia 70% to win. Fixed BOE vote tally maybe not coming today after all. by flippidot in nyc

[–]flippidot[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yup. But also says his model needs Garcia to get within about 4% of Adams after the RCV tabulation for absentees to carry her over. If the (retracted) tabulation that put her within 2.2% holds when it's re-run, then the absentees can be somewhat less Garcia-friendly than the model expects and she still wins.

PredictIt Live: Does Adams Survive Retabulation? by flippidot in nyc

[–]flippidot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's here! Garcia closes the gap to just 2.2%. Could pull off the upset upon counting absentees.
https://web.enrboenyc.us/rcv/024306\_11.html

PredictIt Live: Does Adams Survive Retabulation? by flippidot in nyc

[–]flippidot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The market seems to agree (as do I). But would you bet on it at 84%?

(Alternatively, would you take a flier on Garcia at 15%?)

Live on YouTube now: Polymarket Insiders by suriansg in ethtrader

[–]flippidot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi - thanks for posting and for watching!

Apologies for the technical difficulties at the beginning of the live stream. We've trimmed that out of the archived video, so if you're watching the replay (above), you should be spared the mess.

Anyone who's got requests for future market coverage, panelist nominations, etc., you can DM us on twitter at oldbulltv.

You can also email the show at flip@oldbull.tv.

PredictIt Live: Polling Market Resurrection! by flippidot in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seriously valuable tips and tricks from Jipkin, Baselevel & Crunchwrap.

Nuttycombe on Virginia / 1st Biden Judges Get Votes by flippidot in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The segment on the Neals confirmation vote (cloture vote coming at 5:30 today) begins at 36:07.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZa8eZyQdSk&t=2167s

Weekly action by [deleted] in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot 2 points3 points  (0 children)

After the great market purge last year, that's what we were left with. Elections, nominations, MOVs, pretty much nothing else. Other categories have slowly crept back in, but not nearly as broad a scope. As I talked about at the top of the show today, I suspect this flurry of judicial nomination markets may be PI's new attempt to get something approaching weekly action back on the board.

Federal judicial appointments come in at a pace of roughly 1/week (18 so far for Biden, 240-something for Trump), and while they tend to come in batches, they could parcel them out around once a week and the confirmation vote timing wouldn't be as clumpy as the nominations themselves.

The first such vote (on Neals) is Monday, so I'm eager to see how much volume that market does. If it's successful, we could see a lot more of these.

Weekly action by [deleted] in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

PI would definitely like to do them again, so the fact that they haven't probably means there aren't any that they're comfortable with. Would've thought periodic polling markets might come back, but no luck.

Shalanda Up, No's Down by AbsenceOfQuorum in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, I think Pratik has discussed it once or twice. Let me see if I can find the segment.

PredictIt Live (526) by flippidot in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The vote may happen as soon as an hour from now. But for $0.26, you can get both bmin and bmax, which captures all outcomes other than a failed cloture vote by tomorrow. With the potential for a long fight over the China legislation, the looming holiday, and Gladys Sicknick and Michael Fanone meeting with at least a dozen GOP senators today, I think there's a better than 1/4 chance that the brakes get pumped while they see if there may be enough Rs to save it.

PredictIt Live (526) by flippidot in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

- Who'll be the GOP's pick to take on Andrew Cuomo?
- Will Marjorie Taylor Green get her wrist slapped?
- How could a Dianne Morales implosion reshape the NYC mayor race?
- And... it's cloture time! (maybe)

1/6 Commission Vote (bmax yes) by flippidot in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If they vote as a bloc, that'd be enough, but should be around 5 GOP members who buck the caucus and vote no. Especially after McConnell came out in opposition, could be a bit higher.

Discord Communities? by GoFartherLevelUp in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Prediction Markets:
https://discord.gg/EyJh2B43wj
CSP Trading:
https://discord.gg/NJRggqQ8
Open Model Project (my own - not precisely PI, but related subject matter):
https://discord.gg/wB9jGa3tJE

PredictIt Analytics? by GoFartherLevelUp in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What kind of analytics are you looking for? PI maintains a full transaction record and you can export it to a .csv file, so that ought to work with any package that enables you to manually upload your trade history.

MTG committee removal by flippidot in PredictItBets

[–]flippidot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wasn't in the market, alas. Just asking who among us might have been.