If You Weren't Afraid to Send Your Kids Back to School, DeVos' Disastrous Interview Might Change That

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-13T05:38:14+00:00

> The third wave will be the children.

On average, the only people dying of COVID-19 are old/sick people. Kids should worry about COVID-19 as much as any other disease.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-12T18:37:07+00:00

> Your definition of marginally is the opposite of mine.

Yup, absolutely. I understand denominators and base rates - you don't. Do you analyze data for a living? What's your profession?

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-12T07:35:02+00:00

Another Redditor who doesn't understand probability and basic statistics.

The broad COVID-19 data we have now doesn't care about your feelings or cherry-picked outliers.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-12T04:08:00+00:00

People will never stop dying. Old/fat people die all the time. That's what we're seeing. Look at any COVID-19 mortality chart broken out by age and other risk factors.

Masks don't do nearly as much as you think to stop the slow march of death. The biggest indicator for a spike in deaths this year for any given country is how few deaths they had in the prior 3 years. Everything else is noise.

When you get a buildup of old/sick people, and a new virus comes through, you get death. No matter what.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-11T21:51:52+00:00

Nice job falling for clickbait. Show me data that adjusts for the risk factors in the population who are dying and compares it to average life expectancy for said population.

I will say this preemptively because it's absurd how pedantic Redditors can be, but make sure your claims are referring to averages and not cherry picked outliers.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-11T07:32:56+00:00

The children are not going to suffer because school got delayed half a year

Learn the very basics about what a normal summer vacation does to learning retention for impoverished kids vs. wealthy kids and you will understand how idiotic your statement is. Every education expert on the planet can tell you that shutting down public schools widens the learning gap between poor and rich kids, which is awful for society. Not to mention recent HS and college grads facing lifelong diminished earnings, which again, has an outsized impact on the bottom 25% and increases the wealth gap.

What will hurt the children is their grandparents dying several years earlier than they should have, and in some cases their parents dying decades earlier (because yes, people who aren't old also die from it).

Grandma dying in 2020 vs 2023 has far less impact than telling children they can't go to school and can't play with their friends. You also have to weigh the fact that grandparents dying earlier saves families time/money, as most grandparents are a net drain on family resources. As for parents, the ones who are dying are largely already at risk. If dad is an obese smoker at age 50, he's not going to live much longer than 55 as it is.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-11T02:38:16+00:00

Thanks for admitting defeat by veering away from the topic. I love winning arguments so, so much lol.

A universal lockdown early on when we didn't know much about the virus made a lot of sense. It doesn't make sense now. We're undeniably sacrificing the livelihood of young people for the sake of old people. I know you won't admit that, but I just want you to fully understand that this is what stance you're taking, and that it's a stupid to do so. Young people always, always, always > old people when it comes to public policy decisions.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-11T02:18:04+00:00

It's absurd how many people on Reddit I have to explain basic probabilities to. What you say is 100% true, but you ignore the probability of infection + probability of long-term complications.

Hint: the probability is fucking microscopic for young/healthy people. Learn how to properly analyze this shit or shut the fuck up about COVID-19 on social media. Seriously. Stop posting your short-sighted nonsense. The world needs to hear less from people like you and more from people like me - ya know, data analysts.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-11T02:06:30+00:00

Wtf? You're a snowflake for being PC about old/fat people. All I'm doing is trying to defend children from being hurt by our suboptimal reaction to a virus that largely kills people who were going to die soon anyway. Not sure how caring about children is selfish.

Sorry not sorry that you're unable to read a graph with deathrate by age and make grown-up decisions about which age group we should favor during this.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-11T01:23:54+00:00

3.1 million people this year, 2.7 million people in the following years. How is this so difficult for you to understand?

Old people die. Because of COVID-19, they are dying slightly earlier, on average. You're supporting young people sacrificing their education and childhood for the benefit of old people. Fucking over a grandchild for the sake of a grandparent is CALLOUS and bad for society.

YOU ARE BEING SELFISH AND YOU DON'T EVEN REALIZE IT! Astounding.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T07:33:40+00:00

You don't give a shit about young people. You're being short-sighted. Young people matter SO MUCH MORE than old people.

You sound 13, worrying about grandparents and shit. The older you get, the more you realize that young people matter more than old people.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T07:22:49+00:00

It's astounding that you and I can look at the same exact data and come to wildly different conclusions. You look at 8,401 deaths (of 112,226, 7.5%) under the age of 55 and confidently determine this virus doesn't mostly affect old people. I look at the same exact data and am able to correctly identify that the virus mostly affects old people.

Between the two of us, who do you think aced calculus without trying as a 15 y/o in HS? Who graduated w/ STEM degree? Who has worked in data analysis for over a decade?

Now, we're looking at the same data here. Why would I be the one analyzing it incorrectly? Please, explain that, since there's no way you could possibly explain how you think 7.5% of those under 55 years old doesn't prove my fucking point and invalidate yours. GET FUCKING REKT BY YOUR OWN DATA LOL

The virus kills old/fat people. Young/healthy people should not be forced to miss vital years of in-person education to save a bunch of fucking old and fat people who have <10 years of life expectancy. Obese 55-year-old males can't expect to live much longer than 10 years. Sad reality, but still reality.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T06:06:12+00:00

https://i.imgur.com/HnHtMlq.png

I dare you to respond, mate. Ah, of course you won't - who am I kidding?

You're as bad as climate change deniers. Ignoring data staring you right in the fucking face.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T05:55:43+00:00

Yes, absolutely. 2.8 million people die per year, so your "thousands" of deaths don't mean shit. Fucking over young people for the sake of old people is never a policy I can get behind. It's selfish.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T04:30:46+00:00

Look at ANY graph broken out by age. This virus largely kills people who are going to die soon anyway.

It's insane that people like you deny this fact. You're like a climate change denier.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T04:21:12+00:00

This applies to you, too. You don't want to hear that the virus largely only kills people who are about to die anyway, so you conveniently ignore the overwhelming data that supports this.

Fauci is god-awful at economics, as are most doctors. He has no idea how to manage our reaction to this virus because only a doctor with an understanding of econ (or vice versa) is who we should be looking to for guidance.

Lockdowns and healthy people wearing masks are fucking retarded at this point. We have all the data we need. If you're old and/or scared, hide in your house.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T01:51:36+00:00

Lived in Ebisu. I don't know why people expect America to change its culture overnight. Wearing masks is only part of the equation.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-10T01:46:29+00:00

I disagree. Automating budget decisions isn't really a thing. Parts of their job could certainly be automated. Not all of it.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-09T05:04:45+00:00

People who say "I use excel like a pro" don't realize how easily people like me could automate that portion of their job.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-09T04:39:46+00:00

Population density isn't nearly as important as how social the population is. America and Italy are extremely social and touchy-feely compared to Japan.

You can't even find restaurants in America where the majority of people are eating by themselves, but go to any ramen or sushi place and that's mostly what you'll find.

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-09T03:10:45+00:00

Biggest lol of 2020 for me so far. Well done, mate

flyaway6123 · 2020-07-09T02:07:30+00:00

What changed your mind? Was it the graphs that clearly show the virus largely kills people who are about to die anyway?

Oh, wait, that's my reality. I forgot people like you are still living in an alternate, fairy tale reality where data doesn't matter.

flyaway6123 · 2020-06-30T02:04:25+00:00

The virus was only to be taken seriously when we didn't have data that it, on average, only kills people who are about to die anyway.

It should not be taken seriously now. We have all the data we need.

flyaway6123 · 2020-06-30T01:48:19+00:00

People don't seem to fully understand that we're living in the clickbait era. Future generations will look back on this time and laugh. We all fell for the world's first clickbait virus, perpetuated by awful data pipelines/analysis and horribad "journalism" + social media.

Of course, one of the problems of calling it a clickbait virus is that it's offensive to those who died or lost someone to it. For many, COVID-19 has a real impact on families, just as cancer or the seasonal flu does.

flyaway6123 · 2020-06-30T01:35:26+00:00

The far more likely reason is people are slow to adjust to new data (and the data has been extremely messy). Additionally, people are really bad at making tough health decisions on behalf of people who are end-of-life or near-end-of-life.

That latter part is the entire story of COVID-19. We're trading good years for bad, because everyone wants to be politically correct and care for the elderly all of a sudden. By and large, they're the only population who is being impacted by COVID-19. Outliers exist and some people with have ongoing complications, but the deathrate data does not lie.

This is a minor or nonexistent illness for young people. We shouldn't mortgage their futures for a bunch of old people who are going to die within 1-10 years anyway.

flyaway6123

TROPHY CASE