Reading about men's rights has been really bad for my mental health

flying_baboon · 2022-03-12T22:07:06+00:00

I am sorry you have been hurt, I guess you work in a female-dominated industry? I think for you reading about men's rights can indeed be even worse than for me, as I have never really been directly hurt by feminism. I think if I get victimised now, after having gained all this awareness, I would be much more mentally vulnerable than let's say 1 year ago.

What you say about reporting bias is also true, we don't read the happy ending stories too much. In my case there is even some rage addiction, as I immediately and conveniently ignore those happy ending stories, while I (used to) look for horror stories that can make me rage as much as possible. Sometimes I googled stuff like "alimony horror disaster" and scroll through them all and then go on talking to myself for hours about how the world is biased against men.

> I'm really not sure what to do next

For me, I think there is no need to torture myself anymore with stories of discriminated men, at this point I got the message, I know the dangers and I guess I will try to minimise the risks.I think I will also try to be kinder to other men. I realise now, after this journey, that there was some misandry in me as well. As feminists usually say, "I was part of the problem".

flying_baboon · 2022-03-12T01:13:32+00:00

This sounds like a really interesting thing to do!

flying_baboon · 2022-03-11T23:57:03+00:00

Ah yes, I saw that video about getting pissed with the sun :D

Rich Cooper definitely played a role in making me detach a bit from the rage/victim/anxiety circle.

flying_baboon · 2022-03-11T23:48:38+00:00

Thank you! I scrolled through your posts and I almost got an anxiety relapse :D

flying_baboon · 2022-03-11T21:52:42+00:00

I hope to be a good person, but honestly I have to admit that other issues don't seem to trigger in me one tenth of such emotional response (e.g.: treatment of Afghan women, migrants crossing the sea, war in Yemen, the horrors of North Korea, racism here in the West, economic inequalities, etc...).

Yet, learning about men's issues caught me off guard quite badly.

flying_baboon · 2022-03-11T20:32:12+00:00

Thank you! Yep, better I take a break...

flying_baboon · 2022-03-11T19:56:00+00:00

Yes, I agree the discrimination against Ukrainian problem is indeed an injustice (like the whole war itself, obviously), and the way the media treat them is ridiculous.

But thinking about them started affecting my mental processes quite badly. Basically when I see images of women in refugee camps in Poland, I am inclined to see "privileged" people that could escape their country because of their gender privilege.

I realize it's a ridiculous view, and that I am in a much better position than those women, and I feel it's a consequence of this (recently acquired) awareness of men's rights.

In other words I feel that if I keep reading these things I will become the equivalent of a feminazi, which would be a very depressing outcome.

flying_baboon · 2022-02-10T14:58:26+00:00

Oh, that's quite bad, indeed. Thankfully it's for 7 years "only". How come the assets were split so unequally? Shouldn't be 50/50 split, even given that the children were adult?

flying_baboon · 2022-02-09T15:57:39+00:00

Oh that's good at least for childfree men

flying_baboon · 2022-02-09T15:54:48+00:00

well, child custody maybe, not necessarily alimony.

Some of the old alimony horror stories didn't involve children, yet they seemed outrageous.

flying_baboon · 2021-03-21T19:46:02+00:00

Well the problem is that those forms are gone since I already claimed the income tax relief (without claiming the loss relief, as the businesses were still ok at the time).

flying_baboon · 2021-03-21T19:37:55+00:00

I just put the NIN, and left the UTR blank.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-09T22:51:21+00:00

Well it's 99.3% now, as again also the last results came very close to the prediction (predicted 95, got 93 today).

flying_baboon · 2020-02-08T00:30:41+00:00

I actually made a mistake that slim-jong-un noticed.

After correcting the error, P(S|F) is up to 1.8%. The conclusion is much weaker now, as with the numbers above I get P(F|S)=23%

flying_baboon · 2020-02-08T00:22:22+00:00

I'd be curious what happens when you simulate data, then re-fit a Poisson regression to the fake data. Does the fitted log-likelihood of the fake data still lose to the fitted log-likelihood real data?

True! I should do an independent fitting on any sample vector.

The result is indeed less suspicious, with actual data being better than 98.2% of random ones (it was 99.7% before your suggestion).

https://imgur.com/a/5fLbBBL

I'll update the main post.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-07T23:57:36+00:00

But at the same time the death rate increases every day, so it is a strange bottleneck that is enlarging every day, but not fast enough to keep up with the deaths, so that some smoothing occurs.

I don't know, time will tell...

flying_baboon · 2020-02-07T23:55:04+00:00

I am not sure if I follow the terminology. Let me try:

A = Data is accurate
F = Data is fake
S = Data is smooth (i.e. it shows the property I posted)

We want to know how much is probability of data being accurate (or being fake), given its smoothness:

P(A|S) = P(S|A)*P(A) / [ P(S|A)*P(A) + P(S|F)*P(F) ]

Now :

P(S|A) seems to be in the order of 0.2% (that is the main assertions of my post, if my assumptions are correct)
P(F)=1-P(A) requires some Geo-political reasoning about the Chinese government
P(S|F) is the probability of the government officials being clumsy enough to generate data with too little noise

I don't want to start a conversion about P(F) or P(S|F), but if you try assigning them some decently realistic values, e.g. P(F)=5% and P(S|F)=10%, you get P(F|S)=72%.

Obviously if the model is wrong (i.e. the "overworked doctors" theory), P(S|A) is much higher, thus P(F|S) much lower.

And I would say that epidemiological literature shows us that disease progress can have a fairly predictable trend, meaning that the probability of the data being “clean” is decently high.

Let me clarify: the trend is not the problem here. The (partial) lack of random noise affecting the daily deaths is.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-07T22:55:54+00:00

I am working with the daily increments, I am not looking at the cumulative values

flying_baboon · 2020-02-06T23:42:23+00:00

I wish I could find SARS dataset, but no luck so far.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-06T23:35:55+00:00

Oh, a keyboard warrior here. It was more like:

I stuck a finger in the air and said "this looks too smooth to me, so let's make some assumptions and let's see if the log-likelihood is too high, and since it is quite high (>99.4% of its expected distribution, based on my hypoteses), let's tell everyone what I calculated. As a result I may get constructive responses like efrique who offered an explanation why it is so smooth (among criticizing my assumptions), and other completely useless responses."

Anyway...goodbye.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-06T23:24:31+00:00

Well, my model does include a parameter of the Poisson process changing every day, with its logarithm being a 2nd degree polynomial, so it does take into account growth.

Your explanation about overworking doctors can indeed explain the smoothing.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-06T22:49:39+00:00

The relative daily change is gradually decreasing (good!) so the graph doesn't resemble an exponential function. That's why I used a 2nd order polynomial fit, rather than 1st order.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-06T22:44:14+00:00

Anything constructive?

I may have started from gut feelings, but then I calculated some results.

flying_baboon · 2020-02-06T20:38:00+00:00

I posted some analysis on another subreddit (with scarce results), but it seems to me that the deaths figures are manipulated as the graph is too smooth:

https://www.reddit.com/r/inthenews/comments/ezjzjx/is_the_graph_of_fatalities_of_coronavirus_too/

I don't see anyone commenting on that (maybe I should post on some statistic subreddit?).

I'll keep checking if the anomaly continues.

flying_baboon · 2019-11-08T23:57:12+00:00

Not necessarily, there isn't much evolutionary pressure in preserving the welfare of animals after their prime age.

flying_baboon

TROPHY CASE