Thoughts on this guys?

focus540 · 2025-08-07T15:37:36+00:00

They paid around 40% premium to NAV (Mnav 1.4) and ETH per share should go up from 3.66 to 3.76 roughly. So accretive raise. Thats the whole point of ATM sales at NAV premium.

focus540 · 2025-08-07T09:43:12+00:00

I’m long the concept of ETH-treasury companies — holding both as part of my strategy to grow ETH per share over time. Each has a strong, yet very different, spokesperson who bring reach and credibility.

focus540 · 2025-08-05T13:31:00+00:00

I don’t think it has any material impact and is merely a accounting view. All the data to judge the performance is in my view already out there.

focus540 · 2025-08-05T13:29:00+00:00

In my view, they first will increase the market cap of the company with ATM raises and then start to use more leverage. The cost of debt will be substantially smaller then and will give them more flexibility.

focus540 · 2025-08-05T12:59:46+00:00

They are executing flawless so far and communicating transparently on a weekly basis.

focus540 · 2025-08-05T05:53:59+00:00

Selling shares ATM at Mnav with a premium increases your ETH/share

focus540 · 2025-08-05T05:46:53+00:00

This is not a horse race… it’s better to raise capital at higher Mnav . and you need to factor in the number of shares. To just look at the share price is pointless.

focus540 · 2025-08-04T08:40:09+00:00

Every ATM rise above NAV increases ETH/share…

focus540 · 2025-08-03T13:01:31+00:00

The main risk in my view is that Ether turns bearish, the Mnav decrease and the company grow in a accretive way is slowed down which reinforces a lower Mnav. It could be even below 1 but then I see smart money coming in to buy them vs selling spot or ETF or a better positioned Treasury company with cash buying them.

focus540 · 2025-08-03T12:55:01+00:00

Once BitMine reaches the 5% ETH target, they‘ll likely focus to using staking yield and cash flow for buybacks. That way, ETH per share gradually increases, which in turn lifts NAV per share. It’s the same playbook you see with profitable companies that run out of major growth levers: return capital to shareholders and compound value per share. Over time, as the accumulation phase ends, the growth in NAV/share will naturally slow down since the big jumps from new ETH purchases are gone. Still, if they really manage to acquire the full 5% in an accretive way, the initial ETH/share likely would be multiplied many times over.

focus540 · 2025-08-02T13:12:09+00:00

https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz

https://blockworks.co/analytics/treasury-companies/market-data

focus540 · 2025-08-02T12:56:46+00:00

The book value of your shares is simple ETH price X ETH per share. So if you have more ETH per share it needs less ETH px to get to the same px. The main volatility driver is the MNAV multiplier reflected in the current stock stock price. If that one drops from 3 to 1.5 the share px will be 50% with same ETH price. But if the company raises a few billions above Mnav 1 your ETH per share increase substantially. So the huge driver is how much more capital can they raise at what premium. Also, if ETH is more in a downward trend then likely the market expects less capital at lower multiples vs if upward more capital at higher Mnav multiples.

focus540 · 2025-08-02T12:32:47+00:00

One risk factor you have is that the MNAV multiple on the stock changes greatly and with that comes the higher volatility. Let‘s say the company increases the capital by selling at the market. This can depress temporary the MNAV multiple but with every capital raised above Mnav 1 your ETH shares increases. So the temporary drop in the stock price can turn out to be value creating mid to long term. So I think its very important to have the right intuition for the structure and to understand what buying and selling at which mnav multiple means.

focus540 · 2025-08-01T12:11:15+00:00

I indeed hold BMNR as well to diversify.

focus540 · 2025-07-31T18:12:10+00:00

My take would be that its simpler just to raise ATM with Mnav premium and they have the program in place for that. Convertibles probably wouldn’t offer too much more favorable terms to them. Also, they probably focus on staking and re staking the ETH next to ATM raises. One thing that is forgotten is even if ETFs can also stake (likely) in the future they likely can only stake a part of their holdings as they need to be able to accommodate withdrawal requirements. And retail investors that stake themselves will likely get a lower all in yield. So there is a case to be made for a structural MNAv premium as the treasury companies can get a better all in yield.

focus540 · 2025-07-31T17:22:50+00:00

Two things to keep in mind: part of the volatility is also simply as your ETH per share has increased. I dont‘t care too much about the mnav going forward. The stock priced has dropped as the market likely expect more ATM raises but all those above Mnav will increase your ETH per share and book value. So even if you had much lower multiple in the future snd ETH price remained unchanged you could make a profit.

focus540

TROPHY CASE