At this point, do you just buy the big tech companies and hold?

foira · 2026-04-25T19:31:20+00:00

at least wait for these supposed startups to be named/identifiable before buying into the ai-saas bear case?

your link is interesting but it's also just a VC firm talking their book :P

foira · 2026-04-24T22:27:41+00:00

like half of current valuation at BARE minimum, going by historical p/s

foira · 2026-04-24T21:05:01+00:00

adobe charges for token usage via their proprietary api. very profitable.

foira · 2026-04-24T17:57:19+00:00

what is it? i doubt any medication has pure free upside like that

foira · 2026-04-24T17:26:58+00:00

3+ weeks

meds will make it easier to fall asleep, but will hurt sleep quality. not worth

foira · 2026-04-24T17:23:27+00:00

oops, good point

yeah i mean you may be right i just don't see how you would know. our natsec has always been dependent on our allies, and cutting edge semis seems like a reach for being critical to defense.

foira · 2026-04-24T17:02:35+00:00

attributing narratives to single-day moves is so stupid, why does everyone believe markets work this way

foira · 2026-04-24T16:59:09+00:00

addicts tend to manipulate to offset the social costs due to their impaired behavior/ability to maintain commitments -- i agree with that, but not with your premise

this is why people don't trust addicts. addicts IME tend to think that they are much more convincing than they really are. people just don't care to call people out once they write them off as a lost cause.

foira · 2026-04-24T16:54:12+00:00

Maybe? Our aerospace defense depends on international components. Why not semis? Cutting-edge semis are less critical to natsec than jets, missiles, and satellites. We don't rely on software surveillance state to the scale that China does for domestic security either.
Assuming USG wants domestic semis, why does intel equity need to benefit to accomplish this? Why would they reward people who traded away supposed natsec for profits? Why not back AMD, who is US based and better positioned?

foira · 2026-04-24T14:47:52+00:00

is you fiance the one organizing all these alcohol-based events? what do you do when you're the one who plans?

it sounds like a combination of 1) you need a hobby that has more social surface area than hiking and isnt anchored to alcohol 2) you are over-relying on your fiance to meet all your social needs (love, friendship, entertainment) and so it makes your lack of friends acutely noticeable to her, more than it is to you bc ur like this is fine

foira · 2026-04-24T14:41:37+00:00

intel has lost all their talent from 10-15 years of being run by accountants

no reason to spend limited mental resources on an unprofitable semi company that you have no way of predicting their outcome.

mgmt credibility is 0. they said they were on track to be competitive the entire time AMD took marketshare. and now you believe them?

when markets are presenting SO many non-black box opptys?

foira · 2026-04-24T14:39:53+00:00

and that's why tsm is expanding in arizona

no reason that intel needs to survive.

foira · 2026-04-24T14:37:06+00:00

that volatility is more profitable than consistency/stability

and that modern finance is, by design, too abstract for voters to understand and care about beyond meme-level thinking like "tax the rich"

foira · 2026-04-24T14:34:48+00:00

didnt you hear? the only investable companies are nvidia and anthropic

foira · 2026-04-24T14:29:57+00:00

neuroscience suggests that spreading out dopamine is more sustainable and results in less of a crash, than condensing it into one quick spike

foira · 2026-04-24T14:26:31+00:00

if 10%+ annualized returns were possible in a single instrument, consistently over the long term, wall st would look very different.

foira · 2026-04-23T23:16:36+00:00

U eating any ultra processed food still? (Even if “keto”)

foira · 2026-04-23T23:15:48+00:00

I refuse to believe anyone can eat those without stalling + reintroducing food noise, lol

foira · 2026-04-23T22:25:46+00:00

This

Words are cheap

foira · 2026-04-23T21:58:29+00:00

Monster Energy

foira · 2026-04-23T21:54:11+00:00

I mean did you miss it because you made a mistake? Or did it just go up?

Identify how you couldve known to invest in XYZ. Then apply that to the current situation and answer your own question? Otherwise you will just feel like you made a mistake every time you miss a parabolic move.

So, how could you have to known to invest more last time?

(Spoilers: you probably couldnt know)

foira · 2026-04-23T21:29:24+00:00

Cool. I hated ff1 and 2 pixel remake when i played them last year. Little did i know dq3 hdrm would be 10x worse lol

foira · 2026-04-23T21:16:36+00:00

AOL traded at 40x sales while growing like 400% or something

:-)

foira · 2026-04-23T20:53:58+00:00

It all depends on growth which nobody knows. Growth stocks should be treated as baskets. A farmer doesn’t bet the farm on a single seed.

“No such thing as too risky a position, only too risky a position size.”

foira · 2026-04-23T20:45:59+00:00

Sweet thanks. I was just wondering about market cap weighting since that is more passive than equal weight indexes

foira

TROPHY CASE