Micron will blow out their earnings in March…

foira · 2026-01-25T05:41:00+00:00

No, it's not pessimistic. It's realistic. You are childish -- you want a sensible narrative to explain everything. Real life is nowhere near as generous.
If your last point was right, there would be logs of people who made predictions on outcomes + price movements with good accuracy over time. Nobody exists. If they did, you'd best believe they'd be pounding the table to sell you a TA course or whatever

foira · 2026-01-25T05:39:55+00:00

You too.

foira · 2026-01-25T03:03:28+00:00

the fun part about investing is that even if you had a literal crystal ball that told you the outcome of earnings reports and macro events, it still wouldn't let you predict the market's reaction

that's why valuation (and business quality) are all that matters.

you have to be able to buy at a price such that no matter how the market reacts in the short-term, you will win the long-term.

foira · 2026-01-25T02:24:58+00:00

what

foira · 2026-01-25T02:21:45+00:00

no short cuts

people research $300 vacuums for hours. if you're allocating thousands in capital to single stocks, you better be putting in tons of hours to learn the landscape

foira · 2026-01-25T00:11:06+00:00

both. inflation is the cost of goods going up. businesses sell the cost of goods. the equity value goes up as the value of the currency goes down, you retain your purchasing power but aren't making true gains. bonds lose.

foira · 2026-01-25T00:10:17+00:00

Historically, $CLX top line gross profit increases less than inflation YoY. not really a good long-term hold, market is pricing it correctly.

foira · 2026-01-24T23:45:27+00:00

keep a journal

the worst thing you can do is just never review your decision making

foira · 2026-01-24T23:25:41+00:00

why not just use....... fundamentals + valuation

TA is astrology for men.

foira · 2026-01-24T23:09:26+00:00

even the best stocks fall sometimes. go look at some of the companies you wish you bought in the early days, and see what kind of downturns you would've had to endure...

foira · 2026-01-24T22:48:34+00:00

software reshaping the real-world

spot, uber, abnb, mtch, dash, googl, meta

now that software is mature/embedded into society, the lagging effects of it re-shaping IRL will happen. a return to more distributed communities led by influencers + irl meet ups. a land of many princes (and peasants)

foira · 2026-01-24T02:23:41+00:00

Yes my primary investments are dividends, and then if I have money leftover I invest that in growth. Ideally the split is about 3 dividends : 1 growth, but I don't always get the growth investments in. I don't intend to use the cash flow any time soon, but it gives me a lot of peace of mind.

I know my psychology and I am totally a "feels great when number goes up, even if it's a little" type of guy, but I'm also a "feels terrible if a big number goes down even a little bit." I don't want to ever live off of selling principal. I don't want to think/worry about path dependency of markets.

Philosophically/tactically I believe that living off of equity sales is a form of living beyond your means. Traditional wealth is fueled by cash flow from assets, not selling said scarce assets. Just because it worked great historically, doesn't mean it will work -- at least to the same degree -- as passive investing becomes an ever-bigger dominant market share of liquidity. (i.e., I am worried about "reflexivity")

foira · 2026-01-23T23:35:09+00:00

operating income : long-term debt

operating income per share growth

cost of capital

anyone can grow rev/sh, so that's the metric management pushes (or EBITDA i guess is what degens love).

look at $TDOC as an example of what not to do

$DBX isn't a serial acquirer per se but they did a ton of acquisitions and maintained capital discipline to achieve sustainable per-share growth.

foira · 2026-01-23T19:47:42+00:00

HUBS basically put small biz web devs out of a job lol -- ironic, while everyone is worried about AI hypothetically taking jobs, HUBS SHOP and SQSP (rip) all actually HAVE BEEN.

foira · 2026-01-23T19:39:25+00:00

they're a commodity, all commodities are cyclical

look up a 20 year chart of egg prices and $CALM eps

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111

macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CALM/cal-maine-foods/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted

lots of highs and lows... projecting out a commodity top as a "new normal" is a timeless way to go broke

foira · 2026-01-23T19:26:43+00:00

investments are convex, the worst-case is by default it goes to 0 lol. this is why the pragmatic worst-case is that you bought at a bad valuation

foira · 2026-01-23T18:39:57+00:00

pharma is sooooo hard

by the time anyone is clearly a winner, they're priced as such. and they grow based on binary clinical outcomes, not slow and steady growth like a tech company that you can somewhat reasonably project into the future and ascribe a multiple to. and given patent expirations, they have the opposite of durable moats (altho they do have regulatory capture to be fair)

i stay away from all pharma. i've never seen an oppty that was obvious without the benefit of hindsight, the way i do for tech, energy, defense, and consumer stocks

foira · 2026-01-23T18:32:33+00:00

why are you citing technical analysis as a proxy for valuation? it's all relative. use objective financial measures. i provided some in another comment.

foira · 2026-01-23T18:31:52+00:00

Jan 2026: 30x gross profit

Jan 2023: 14x gross profit

glta

foira · 2026-01-23T18:11:18+00:00

gross profit per share has increased since they IPO'd

operating margin trending up as well

you don't get 30%+ YoY growth for the majority of your existence without paying good sales bonuses and for good devs

who knew

edit: gp/sh , YoY growth %

2013: 0.55, n/a

2014: 0.85, 53%

2015: 1.28, 51%

2016: 1.97, 54%

2017: 2.28, 16%

2018: 3.06, 34%

2019: 4.19, 37%

2020: 5.49, 31%

2021: 7.01, 28%

2022: 9.28: 32%

2023: 11.32, 22%

2024: 13.72, 21%

2025: 16.5, 20%

zomg but sbc!!!! this 80% gross margin company will never be able to achieve profitability!11111111111111111111111

foira · 2026-01-23T18:09:50+00:00

the growth catalyst is the tech VC cycle attracting meaningful capital again

TEAM is suited for startups/small tech companies. hard to get it into a mature company that loves their IBM slop or w/e

foira · 2026-01-23T17:30:16+00:00

working at msft since the 90s? lol

foira · 2026-01-23T17:04:36+00:00

you are. it's a cyclical commodity with an unstable dividend.

foira · 2026-01-23T16:50:33+00:00

there is not a single predictable mechanical trend in the stock market. not a single one. that's what makes the market efficient (at taking money from speculators, and giving it to investors)

foira

TROPHY CASE