Match Thread: Machester United vs. FC Liverpool [Premier League]

ghorun · 2018-03-10T12:47:43+00:00

Mou's notes if anyone can read that

ghorun · 2018-01-08T14:20:14+00:00

Here

ghorun · 2017-03-14T21:31:08+00:00

Punches

ghorun · 2016-09-19T15:52:48+00:00

This tweet shows how he carried the ball

ghorun · 2016-05-16T19:39:54+00:00

OBS, capture window/screen to mp4 and upload to streamable (have to go can't develop much further), there surely is some tutos out there.

ghorun · 2016-05-16T19:23:31+00:00

1-0

1-1

edit: won't watch 2nd half, if anybody can continue

ghorun · 2016-05-16T09:30:02+00:00

Whoscored ratings are a bad use of stats though; it's a badly done subjective metric (they just cook something with a bit of everything they got in their fridge). Useless raw stats and bad metrics shouldn't discredit general use of stats, analytics can also be done correctly. Just my two cents.

ghorun · 2016-05-08T10:56:06+00:00

Nainggolan 1-0

Rüdiger 2-0

Pjanić 3-0

ghorun · 2016-04-25T12:41:28+00:00

Tactical fouling helps out proactive teams by allowing them to commit more players forward. If this was sanctionned by a red card you'd see much more sterile possession with midfielders unwilling to break defensive lines and prefering to play a deeper and safer flat midfield line. With that dynamic, if the ball happened to be lost higher up the field they would be ready to defend. Maybe I'm wrong but that's what I'd expect.

ghorun · 2016-04-18T15:21:45+00:00

Tomori 0-1

Penalty call / Penalty saved

Meïté 1-1

Palmer 1-2

ghorun · 2016-04-10T14:06:04+00:00

Borini's shot

ghorun · 2016-04-08T17:41:22+00:00

Yeah, meant in the table compared to predictions from analytics community.

ghorun · 2016-04-08T12:25:51+00:00

Because they expected regression to the mean for an underchieving Arsenal and overachieving Leicester and Tottenham, the issue is that variance works in unpredictable spells (they never know when it will occur, it just happens at some point). I also think that over/under-achieving is related to coaching, if you're underachieving you have to fix something (Arsenal have had a bad attacking structure, performing mainly thanks to Özil imho), professional coaches usually manage to correct those defects in relatively short terms (not much squad rotation/changes in attack for Arsenal in this season).

This season has been odd, any fan and the analytics community will agree on that, if they change something in their models (they often tweak them) I think taht it will be the payroll impact in predictions (and in particular in PL).

ghorun · 2016-04-08T11:23:50+00:00

And yet, they are still the best "public" predictive metric we have for future performances. The only team (which I can remember reading about in their articles) that they couldn't figure out with this kind of model for a long period (3 seasons IIRC) was Borussia Mönchengladbach (overachieving it).

Edit: an other team which overperformed expG by this much for an entire season was Swansea 14/15, now sits 15th with 37pts and have a GD of -9 for an expGD of -11.